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March 9th, 2022 | 10:06 CET

Is this how Kostolany would invest? BASF, Globex Mining, Gazprom

  • Commodities
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War only knows losers. On the stock exchange, however, things look a little different. The stock market reflects tomorrow's changes today and ensures the allocation of capital. When money flows from one sector to another, opportunities also arise for investors. Those who bet on the right horse at the right time, win. Those who make the mistake of betting on the high flyers of the past may experience a financial Waterloo.

time to read: 3 minutes | Author: Nico Popp
ISIN: BASF SE NA O.N. | DE000BASF111 , GLOBEX MINING ENTPRS INC. | CA3799005093 , GAZPROM ADR SP./2 RL 5L 5 | US3682872078

Table of contents:

    Dr. Thomas Gutschlag, CEO, Deutsche Rohstoff AG
    "[...] China's dominance is one of the reasons why we are so heavily involved in the tungsten market. Here, around 85% of production is in Chinese hands. [...]" Dr. Thomas Gutschlag, CEO, Deutsche Rohstoff AG

    Full interview


    BASF: This is how it looks in the medium term

    Until the outbreak of the Ukraine war, BASF shares were considered an extremely solid insider tip. The quarterly figures were outstanding - many investors will still remember the 164.9% jump in profits in the first 9 months of the fiscal year. BASF is a top dog: The Ludwigshafen-based Company has a global presence and earns good money in many areas related to chemicals. This market position, coupled with the good figures, convinced many investors. But then came the war and the share plummeted.

    In recent days, many analysts have pointed out that higher raw material prices could hurt BASF's business. Although this also applies to the competition, many investors pressed the sell button. BASF is actually not overvalued in a sector comparison. Investors may want to bookmark the chemical giant after the price slide from almost EUR 70 to below EUR 50. While it makes no sense to reach into the falling knife, BASF was on a good path before the war and offered a high dividend. Even an extremely weak 2022 should be priced in by now. However, BASF has everything in place for a comeback. The prerequisite for this is that the war in Ukraine comes to an end and commodity prices calm down again.

    Globex Mining: 200 commodity projects, one share, EUR 52 million valuation

    The currently very diffuse developments on the commodities market play into the hands of the small Canadian Company Globex Mining. Globex is a kind of holding Company for early and advanced stage commodity projects. The list of metals Globex Mining has in its portfolio is long: copper, nickel, lead, gold, silver, platinum, palladium, manganese, titanium, iron, molybdenum, lithium, cobalt and rare earths. Globex Mining currently has as many as 204 projects in its portfolio, plus 82 license agreements (royalties). The list of projects has become longer and longer in the past years and doubled between 2010 and today. Nevertheless, Globex Mining is also thinking about sales - in 2020, they sold 7 projects for cash, in 2021, they sold one.

    The focus of Globex Mining is on projects in Canada, the USA and Germany. In addition to many early-stage properties, Globex also has advanced-stage projects with resource estimates and even feasibility studies. Examples are Authier Lithium Royalty (resource and feasibility) or the Rocmec 1 Gold Mine (resource estimate 570,000t gold at 6.32 g/t) and others. Since Globex is partnering on many projects and securing royalty payments, the Company can advance many projects simultaneously if successful. Globex Mining's business model should gain momentum in times of rising commodity prices. While conglomerates with many projects sometimes have problems getting their story out there, even one good deal could shed a very different light on Globex Mining's huge portfolio. With a market cap of just EUR 52 million, there could be potential given the sheer size of its project portfolio - all it takes is a good deal or a breakthrough on one of its flagship projects.

    Gazprom: Is this a Kostolany speculation?

    What happens when former flagship projects vanish into thin air is currently demonstrated by the shares of the Russian energy giant Gazprom. It wasn't just the cancellation of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline that made the share almost worthless in Germany. Currently, the stock is still not tradable, not even in Moscow. Not until Wednesday (March 9) will the Russian Central Bank announce details of how the market is to continue. A longer suspension of trading is also not ruled out. In this way, the officials want to prevent panic on the stock market. Should there be further sell-offs on the market after a comeback of Russian shares, gold-digger sentiment could arise for stocks like Gazprom. In its current situation, the share is reminiscent of some of the speculations made by stock market veteran André Kostolany during past war turmoil. However, investors must be aware that such speculations may mean a hanging game that lasts for years.

    While the BASF share is suffering from the current environment but has everything it needs for a comeback in the medium term, investors should keep their hands off Gazprom - especially in wartime, anything is possible. Globex Mining, on the other hand, is much more predictable: More than 200 raw material projects in safe regions at a valuation of around EUR 52 million are not a bad prospect for investors, given the galloping raw material prices.

    Conflict of interest

    Pursuant to §85 of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG), we point out that Apaton Finance GmbH as well as partners, authors or employees of Apaton Finance GmbH (hereinafter referred to as "Relevant Persons") may hold shares or other financial instruments of the aforementioned companies in the future or may bet on rising or falling prices and thus a conflict of interest may arise in the future. The Relevant Persons reserve the right to buy or sell shares or other financial instruments of the Company at any time (hereinafter each a "Transaction"). Transactions may, under certain circumstances, influence the respective price of the shares or other financial instruments of the Company.

    In addition, Apaton Finance GmbH is active in the context of the preparation and publication of the reporting in paid contractual relationships.

    For this reason, there is a concrete conflict of interest.

    The above information on existing conflicts of interest applies to all types and forms of publication used by Apaton Finance GmbH for publications on companies.

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    Der Autor

    Nico Popp

    At home in Southern Germany, the passionate stock exchange expert has been accompanying the capital markets for about twenty years. With a soft spot for smaller companies, he is constantly on the lookout for exciting investment stories.

    About the author

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