BioNTech, dynaCERT, Plug Power - A single piece of news can change everything

BioNTech - Even positive study results do not help

If there is one company that knows all about a meteoric rise, it is BioNTech. The Company was virtually unknown before the pandemic and won the race for the first COVID-19 vaccine. The share price skyrocketed. After the end of the pandemic, however, the share price began to plummet. The Company is increasingly focusing on the development of innovative cancer therapies with various platforms such as mRNA, antibodies, and cell therapies. Approvals of new cancer drugs could boost the share, as this would underline the Company's long-term growth potential.

The latest quarterly results fell short of analyst expectations, with both revenue and losses falling short of forecasts. Nevertheless, the Company maintained its full-year guidance, projecting revenue of EUR 2.5 to 3.1 billion. BioNTech emphasized its focus on further developing the oncology pipeline, which is crucial for the Company's long-term growth. Following this, the share came under pressure again. Following the avian flu outbreak and the prospect of possible subsidy funds, the share price rose again. However, the euphoria was short-lived.

A current Phase 2 study shows promising results for the investigational drug acasunlimab in combination with pembrolizumab for the treatment of previously treated metastatic non-small cell lung cancer. Data presented at the American Society of Clinical Oncology 2024 Annual Meeting show a high 12-month overall survival rate of 69% and a median overall survival of 17.5 months. The efficacy of acasunlimab in combination with pembrolizumab could be a promising approach for heavily pretreated patients. The results did not bring an upswing. Since then, the share price has fallen by more than 9% at its peak and is currently trading at EUR 87.45.

dynaCERT - Verra certification could be the starting signal

dynaCERT, a company that develops solutions for diesel engines to reduce carbon emissions and fuel consumption, is on the verge of a significant milestone: Verra certification for carbon credits. The certification is in the "Final Verra Review" phase, as can be seen on the Verra website. This certification could significantly strengthen the Company's market position. Of particular note is dynaCERT's patented hydrogen technology, which adds hydrogen and oxygen to the diesel engine's combustion process on demand. This improves fuel efficiency and drastically reduces emissions from diesel engines. The certification could further legitimize dynaCERT's technologies and unlock substantial market potential.

Another key piece in unlocking these market potentials could be the appointment of Bernd Krüper as President and Director of dynaCERT. The German executive can look back on over 30 years of experience in the automotive industry and has held management positions, most recently at Hatz gmbH. He is well-versed in corporate optimization and growth. The acquisition of a 15% stake in Cipher Neutron, a company in the field of anion exchange membrane (AEM) electrolysis, which is essential for green hydrogen production, also promises further growth. This investment allows dynaCERT to position itself early in a fast-growing market and leverage synergies with Cipher Neutron's advanced technology.

The green hydrogen market offers immense growth opportunities and will reach USD 500 billion by 2030. dynaCERT's strategic investment in Cipher Neutron and the upcoming Verra certification optimally position the Company to capitalize on this boom. These developments underline dynaCERT's commitment to environmentally friendly technologies. The focus on sustainable energy solutions and the diversification of investments could positively impact company value and share returns in the long term. The share has been trading sideways since March and is awaiting the go-ahead from Verra certification. The share is currently trading at CAD 0.15, which is precisely the level of the last capital measure.

Plug Power - DOE loan guarantee

Plug Power, a leading company in hydrogen technology, received a conditional loan guarantee from the US Department of Energy of up to USD 1.66 billion on May 14. This financial support is intended for the construction and operation of up to six green hydrogen production plants in the US. These facilities aim to supply major companies, including existing Plug Power customers, with low-carbon hydrogen produced in the US. This announcement alone catapulted the share price up by almost 70% at its peak.

However, this guarantee has been wavering again since June 5. On the one hand, investors should not forget that the conditions for the loan guarantee could be very strict. Secondly, US Senator John Barrasso has called for an investigation by the Inspector General of the Department of Energy to uncover any irregularities in the granting of the guarantee. Plug Power's financial instability thus remains a significant risk. Investors should, therefore, follow developments closely and consider a cautious investment strategy to avoid potential losses.

Although there was some positive news in the first quarter, the disappointing financial figures from the first quarter should not be forgotten. The Company's turnover fell by over 40%, and the consolidated gross margin reached new lows. Nevertheless, some progress, including the successful renegotiation of service contracts and the commissioning of the Company's production facilities, partially mitigated these negative figures. No significant orders have been announced since May 16. On that day, a 3 GW BEDP contract was signed with Allied Green Ammonia for an electrolyser project in Australia. The figures for the second quarter, which should be significantly better, are not expected until August 8. At USD 2.70, the share price is now lower than before the loan guarantee.

In the case of all three companies presented here, positive news is often enough to send the shares of the respective company soaring. BioNTech could experience a considerable growth spurt with its innovative cancer therapies through approval of new cancer drugs. dynaCERT is close to Verra certification for CO2 credits and has also acquired a strategic stake in Cipher Neutron, strengthening its market position in green hydrogen. Plug Power has received a conditional loan guarantee from the US Department of Energy, which could enable the construction and operation of six green hydrogen production facilities. However, the investigation results are yet to be confirmed.