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19. November 2021 | 11:21 CET

Valneva, Cardiol Therapeutics, Novavax - Is the Corona emergency brake coming?

  • Biotechnology
Photo credits:

Today, the Robert Koch Institute reported 65,371 new infections, a new sad record. In Berlin, politicians are currently discussing how to proceed. Abolishing the free tests to increase the pressure on the unvaccinated has proven wrong in retrospect. The fact that booster vaccinations might be necessary was also not considered when the vaccination centers were closed. Now the first state is discussing the next lockdown. If the numbers continue to rise, the emergency brake will be pulled in Berlin sooner or later. In parts of Austria, it is already a reality. We take a look at three possible winners of a lockdown.

time to read: 4 minutes by Armin Schulz
ISIN: VALNEVA SE EO -_15 | FR0004056851 , CARDIOL THERAPEUTICS | CA14161Y2006 , NOVAVAX INC. DL-_01 | US6700024010



Armin Schulz

Born in Mönchengladbach, he studied business administration in the Netherlands. In the course of his studies he came into contact with the stock exchange for the first time. He has more than 25 years of experience in stock market business.

About the author

Valneva - First orders, but approval still pending

Valneva is betting on an inactivated vaccine against Corona. The market is there, as 25% in Germany are still not vaccinated. Indeed, partly because they are currently rejecting the new mRNA approach, as there are no long-term studies on it yet. On the other hand, the dead vaccine approach has been tried and tested for decades and usually has only minor side effects. The vaccine VLA2001 is in phase 3 clinical trials and has shown better antibody and tolerability results than AstraZeneca.

On November 18, the Company presented its third-quarter figures. Sales increased to EUR 69.8 million in the first nine months, up 19%. In total, Valneva has EUR 247.9 million in cash, which secures research and development for the time being. Sales will increase significantly next year, according to the November 10 announcement. The EU has secured 60 million doses of the vaccine, with 27 million to be delivered as early as 2022. That is contingent on the drug being approved by the EMA.

In addition to the Corona vaccine, the Company has other interesting preparations in the pipeline, such as a Lyme disease vaccine. The market capitalization of EUR 2.2 billion is currently the lowest compared to all other vaccine manufacturers. For this reason alone, one should take a closer look at the share, which is currently trading at EUR 21.66. From a chart point of view, the share has already digested the capital increase of EUR 102 million and is preparing to test its annual high of EUR 25.20.

Cardiol Therapeutics - Capital increase executed

Cardiol Therapeutics (Cardiol), traded on NASDAQ, focuses on developing anti-inflammatory therapies for cardiovascular diseases using highly purified cannabidiol. Cardiac problems are on the rise due to Corona, and with the fourth Corona wave flaring up, there will be more patients again. In a clinical trial, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved treating hospitalized COVID-19 patients with CardiolRX, Cardiol's lead product.

The Company most recently, in one day, completed a USD 50.2 million capital raise in exchange for the issuance of 16.35 million shares at USD 3.07. In addition, there was a half warrant with an exercise price of USD 3.75. The money will allow the Company to complete the Phase 2 study of CardiolRX in acute myocarditis and heart muscle regeneration. On October 25, the Company got the green light from Health Canada to proceed with the phase 2 study there too. In addition, the LANCER trial to prevent heart problems in COVID-19 patients may be expanded to Brazil, Mexico and Canada.

Since the Company still had just over USD 26 million in cash at the end of June, the capital increase (KE) came as a bit of a surprise and sent the stock price plummeting. The share is currently trading at USD 2.27, USD 0.80 below the price paid by the investors at the beginning of November. The same pattern could be observed in May with the last KE, before the price rose from USD 2 to almost USD 5. For investors to see a plus on their investment by the end of the year, the price must exceed USD 3.07. So there may be a lot of potential here in the short term.

Novavax - Approval applied for in many countries

Before the Corona pandemic, Novavax was a penny stock. The Company had dabbled in vaccines before but had yet to get one approved. With Corona, everything changed when they tried to develop an inactivated vaccine for Corona. Novavax's advantage, like Valneva's, could be in persuading vaccine skeptics to get vaccinated since the dead vaccine method is considered proven. The Company filed for regulatory approval in Europe and the Philippines on November 17.

The data from the phase 3 clinical trial is impressive. The vaccine is considered safe and was tested on 14,039 people. Over a quarter of the subjects were over 65 years of age, which is still the most vulnerable group to COVID-19. Nearly 45% of all test participants had at least one relevant previous illness. Infections were prevented by 89.7%, according to the manufacturer. There were a total of 5 severe courses, all of which occurred in the placebo group. Side effects were also relatively low at 0.5%.

The market capitalization is around USD 14 billion. The stock is currently trading at USD 191.10 and peaked at USD 331.68 in early February. If it succeeds in gaining approval in Europe and the other countries where it has been filed, the share can certainly make further gains. Rising Corona numbers will help the Company as pressure grows to convince the unvaccinated to vaccinate. With the dead vaccine, that would be possible.

All three companies are benefiting from rising Corona numbers. Valneva is in the final stages of the phase 3 trial. The market valuation is still moderate when compared to Novavax. Cardiol Therapeutics can research and develop in peace due to the capital increase. The expansion of the LANCER trial suggests positive results. Novavax has applied for approval in the EU. If successful, this would be the first inactivated vaccine manufacturer to be approved in the EU.


Armin Schulz

Born in Mönchengladbach, he studied business administration in the Netherlands. In the course of his studies he came into contact with the stock exchange for the first time. He has more than 25 years of experience in stock market business.

About the author

Conflict of interest & risk note

In accordance with §34b WpHG we would like to point out that Apaton Finance GmbH as well as partners, authors or employees of Apaton Finance GmbH may hold long or short positions in the aforementioned companies and that there may therefore be a conflict of interest. Apaton Finance GmbH may have a paid contractual relationship with the company, which is reported on in the context of the Apaton Finance GmbH Internet offer as well as in the social media, on partner sites or in e-mail messages. Further details can be found in our Conflict of Interest & Risk Disclosure.

Related comments:

25. November 2021 | 12:44 CET | by Fabian Lorenz

BioNTech, Valneva, Cardiol Therapeutics: Vaccination boosters also share boosters?

  • Biotechnology

The Corona pandemic has been with us all for a good 18 months now, and there is no end in sight. While the industrialized countries are boosting their vaccines, large parts of the world's population have still not been vaccinated for the first time. That means that shares of manufacturers of vaccines or drugs against COVID-19 will continue to be the focus of investors. Driven by the booster and mandatory vaccination discussions, BioNTech has left the correction behind, and the share is marching towards EUR 300. Drug developer Cardiol Therapeutics should now pick up again after the successful capital increase. In any event, analysts see price potential. Vaccine developer Valneva benefits from the EU order but has not yet recovered from Tuesday's "flash crash".


24. November 2021 | 12:41 CET | by Nico Popp

BioNTech, Defence Therapeutics, Novavax: Another step towards vaccination against cancer

  • Biotechnology

In Portugal and Spain, vaccination rates are higher than in Germany. There are various discussions about the reasons for this. One argument is the fact that infant mortality was high in both countries for a long time. Those who still vividly remember the stories of dead or lifelong damaged infants are less likely to think twice when the doctor calls for vaccination. The recent experience with BioNTech and other vaccines could also give a new boost to the willingness to vaccinate. It is, therefore, quite fitting that vaccines against many different diseases are now emerging on the market.


15. November 2021 | 10:50 CET | by Stefan Feulner

Valneva, XPhyto, NanoRepro - Here we go again

  • Biotechnology

Although around 67.4% of the population in Germany is already fully vaccinated, the infection figures are rising to unprecedented heights. The fourth wave with the highly contagious Delta variant is rolling across the republic. This development must be stopped as quickly as possible. In addition to booster vaccinations, politicians are therefore reintroducing citizen testing as a tool against the spread. For diagnostics companies and providers of rapid tests, this means a boom and further increases in earnings, likely to be reflected in stock market valuations in the near future.