BioNTech, Bayer, Vidac Pharma: Buy recommendations and potential worth billions

Vidac Pharma: Cancer drug with billion-dollar potential

Can Vidac Pharma's share multiply? Yes, say the analysts at Sphene Capital. The Company is focusing its cancer research on reversing the "Warburg effect." The therapies developed aim to fight cancer by reversing the abnormal metabolism of cancer cells. This would allow Vidac to develop an entirely new class of cancer drugs.

Vidac's most advanced drug candidate is VDA-1102, which is designed to fight mycosis fungoides, a cancer of the white blood cells known as lymphocytes. VDA-1102 is already in clinical Phase 2a. After positive interim results were reported at the beginning of 2024 based on 50% of the test subjects, the final results are expected to be published by the end of the year.

If VDA-1102 receives approval in 2027, Sphene Capital expects the Vidac share price to reach EUR 4.90 in a base-case scenario. The share is currently trading at EUR 0.25. The price target is based on a three-stage discounted cash flow entity model as the primary valuation method. Following approval, analysts expect a rapid increase in revenue. Cumulative revenue should exceed EUR 1 billion within a few years, and the EBIT margin should rise to over 50%. Vidac Pharma's market capitalization is currently below EUR 10 million. The complete study is available for download here.

BioNTech: Finally, a "Buy" recommendation

When will the BioNTech share leave the downward trend? Shareholders of the Mainz-based company have been asking themselves this question for a long time and have likely been waiting just as long for a "Buy" recommendation. After numerous "Hold" recommendations, the first analyst has finally come out of the woodwork.

Baader Bank recommends buying the shares of the German biotech flagship. BioNTech is currently in a transition phase. While sales of the Corona vaccine continue to decline, it will still take time to generate revenue from cancer drugs. In order to make faster progress with the research pipeline, BioNTech will invest a total of around EUR 1.5 billion more than previously assumed in the current year and next year. Losses are likely to be correspondingly higher in these years. The share is nevertheless a "Buy", given the current price of EUR 79. The analysts' target price is EUR 151.

This means that the analysts at Baader are significantly more optimistic than their colleagues at Goldman Sachs, UBS, or Deutsche Bank. Their price targets range from EUR 90 to EUR 101. For them, BioNTech shares are merely a holding position.

Bayer shares: Only EUR 30 in it?

While an analyst finally recommends buying BioNTech again, experts are holding back on Bayer. Yesterday, JPMorgan pointed out that important data from the pharmaceutical pipeline is to be expected soon, including an update on Kerendia for chronic kidney disease in patients with heart failure. This has the potential to generate billions in sales and is therefore important for Bayer to compensate for the declining revenues from the blood coagulant Xarelto. However, the analysts currently see no reason to buy Bayer shares. Their price target is EUR 30 and thus barely above the current level.

The pharmaceutical pipeline was also a focus in the update from Goldman Sachs. Due to recently published Phase 3 data, Bayer in Leverkusen can hope for an expanded approval for its prostate cancer drug, Nubeqa. However, the impact on revenue and profits should not be overestimated. Nubeqa is already a blockbuster with an annual revenue of over EUR 1 billion for Bayer. The additional revenue potential from the extension of the marketing authorization is limited, as there are already approved drugs from competitors in this segment. Goldman Sachs, therefore, maintains its "Neutral" rating for Bayer shares, with a target price of EUR 30.

BioNTech currently lacks the momentum to establish a real upward trend, even if the market capitalization of around USD 20 billion does not appear too high, given the cash position and the long-term opportunities of the pipeline. In contrast, Vidac Pharma could see a stronger price jump at any time. If the next data are positive again, and the market capitalization remains low, takeover fantasy is likely to arise, too.