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December 2nd, 2021 | 14:04 CET

TUI, Lufthansa, Alerio Gold, Carnival - This winter travel will not be golden!

  • Gold
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The upward movement at the stock exchanges is very advanced because the higher valuation of the shares is continuously alimented by cheap money from the central banks. But now, the statistics show real inflationary pushes; for Europe, the inflation on an annual basis amounted to +4.4% in October. It is generally known that these rates do not correspond very closely to reality due to their hedonic measurement method; the actual price markup in the relevant goods is probably already beyond the 6% mark. Based on these dynamics, FED observers assume that the US central bank could double the pace of the current tapering so that bond purchases could end as early as March. That would probably have the first contractionary effects. What about gold and travel in this environment?

time to read: 4 minutes | Author: André Will-Laudien
ISIN: TUI AG NA O.N. | DE000TUAG000 , LUFTHANSA AG VNA O.N. | DE0008232125 , Alerio Gold Corp. | CA01450V1040 , CARNIVAL PLC DL 1_66 | GB0031215220

Table of contents:

    GOLD - A proven value preserver in inflationary times

    Over the past 25 years, the development of gold has followed the inflation trend in our economies. Before the turn of the millennium, the ounce was still below USD 200. Due to the real estate bubble after the dot-com boom and the devastating effects of the US subprime crisis, the precious metal reached its temporary peak in 2011 at USD 1,950. At that time, the ECB tried to prevent the collapse of Greece with emergency loans. With the deployment of EUR 336 billion, this European rescue experiment succeeded for the time being; the gold price then lost value again in the following years until 2015, reaching USD 1,120.

    However, since this low and the subsequent super boom on the stock markets, things have been going up again, with global currency devaluation following the expansion of central bank balance sheets to this day. Gold reached a new all-time high of USD 2,062 in the summer of 2020. With the current consolidation down to USD 1,780, the precious metal has increased about sevenfold since the 1990s. Spread over 25 years, this results in an annual increase of 8.1%. This value is clearly above the official inflation rate and overall close to the real depreciation of money. Conclusion: Gold serves to maintain purchasing power - in the next 25 years, it could even outperform any other asset.

    Alerio Gold Corp. - An interesting project from Guyana

    A future precious metals supplier from Vancouver can be found in Alerio Gold Corp. (ALE) in Guyana, South America. Guyana is a democratic state still a member of the Commonwealth and has English as its official language. Guyana is also a mining-friendly country with a government that has supported the mining industry on many levels for years. The country is known for its significant natural resources, especially due to its proximity to the equator, it is rich in water. Gold has historically accounted for a significant 35% of the country's exports, with production exceeding 625,000 ounces in 2019.

    Due to the tectonic comparability to the West African continent, many explorers are betting on the similar geological structures known from precious metal-rich West Africa. Well-known players such as Newmont, Reunion, Troy, Omai Gold and G2 Goldfields have long since developed the country, the best known being the Aurora Mine with resources of over 6.9 million ounces.

    Alerio Gold has secured the licenses for the Tassawini Gold Project. The property has a historical resource estimate of 499,000 ounces. CAD 34 million has already been invested in exploration, and current management is pushing progress to further expand exploration on a total of 1381 hectares of land with the medium-term goal of developing a producing mine. The infrastructure on site is very good as the project is located near a navigable river.

    There are currently 73.47 million shares available on a fully diluted basis; active trading venues are Canada and Frankfurt. At CAD 0.24, the market capitalization is just CAD 17.6 million, an inviting level for first investments.

    TUI, Lufthansa & Carnival - Omicron puts the travel industry in trouble

    Joyfully, the travel industry had again taken strong bookings for winter and spring in the fall, then the incidences exploded, and the first lockdowns made the rounds. In Austria, the important ski business is already again at stake; here, the tourism portion amounts to 45% of the alpine gross national product. After an adequate summer, the opening of the alpine skiing areas has already become a political dispute again.

    The icing on the cake is provided by the new Omicron variant from South Africa. The authorities reacted rather quickly and brought SA air traffic with Europe and North America to a standstill. As a result, this means that the winter destinations in South Africa are also back on the cancellation list.

    For travel stocks, this bad news resulted in a sell-off in November. The European travel giant TUI lost 19% from EUR 2.90 to EUR 2.33; Lufthansa followed and lost 18% from its monthly high. With EUR 5,32, prices were even close to the all-time low. Not much better fared the British cruise provider Carnival; its shares also fell 17%.

    Given exploding Corona figures and bottlenecks in intensive care units of hospitals, many are losing their appetite for celebrations or vacations. And now the German Foreign Office is adding to the industry's woes with its advice to avoid cruises. Nevertheless, the mood in tourism stocks is currently not too bad, because after all, the current wave of vaccinations and boosters means that there will certainly be another summer in 2022. Therefore, take advantage of the bombed-out prices to cautiously build up positions.

    The travel industry should become exciting in the next few years. Will normality return or not? What does it look like? Will private travel still be possible in unrestricted numbers with new climate laws? Questions upon questions that will have a lasting impact on our lives. For Alerio Gold, the situation is simple: the project is promising, and management is determined.

    Conflict of interest

    Pursuant to §85 of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG), we point out that Apaton Finance GmbH as well as partners, authors or employees of Apaton Finance GmbH (hereinafter referred to as "Relevant Persons") may in the future hold shares or other financial instruments of the mentioned companies or will bet on rising or falling on rising or falling prices and therefore a conflict of interest may arise in the future. conflict of interest may arise in the future. The Relevant Persons reserve the shares or other financial instruments of the company at any time (hereinafter referred to as the company at any time (hereinafter referred to as a "Transaction"). "Transaction"). Transactions may under certain circumstances influence the respective price of the shares or other financial instruments of the of the Company.

    Furthermore, Apaton Finance GmbH reserves the right to enter into future relationships with the company or with third parties in relation to reports on the company. with regard to reports on the company, which are published within the scope of the Apaton Finance GmbH as well as in the social media, on partner sites or in e-mails, on partner sites or in e-mails. The above references to existing conflicts of interest apply apply to all types and forms of publication used by Apaton Finance GmbH uses for publications on companies.

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    Der Autor

    André Will-Laudien

    Born in Munich, he first studied economics and graduated in business administration at the Ludwig-Maximilians-University in 1995. As he was involved with the stock market at a very early stage, he now has more than 30 years of experience in the capital markets.

    About the author

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