Time is of the essence! Bavarian Nordic, XPhyto, Valneva

Bavarian Nordic breaks out!

Yesterday, the Bavarian Nordic share surged toward the EUR 40 mark. Previously, the value had long hovered around EUR 30. What happened? The German-Danish manufacturer of smallpox vaccines announced a new order. Another 1.5 million doses of the vaccine Imvanex are to go to a European country. The Company had already received orders from the US and Canada, which should positively impact the coming fiscal year. In recent weeks and months, Bavarian Nordic has raised its guidance for the current fiscal year several times.

If the new monkeypox business is not a one-off but also provides support for the coming financial year, this will be positive for Bavarian Nordic's share price - the share price was significantly higher a year ago and therefore has catch-up potential. Weeks ago, pharmacologist Dr Moutih Raffei commented on the danger of the new pathogen and urged hygiene measures: "Transmission from person to person is only likely if symptoms are present. In addition to weeping blisters and skin irritations, the classic droplet infection also plays a role. In regions where infections with monkeypox are likely, I advise the FFP2 mask," the expert said. With more and more cases, it is also likely that more countries will prepare for the danger and order vaccines. For Bavarian Nordic, that means a tailwind.

XPhyto: Will the opioid epidemic in the US provide a breakthrough?

A plague of a very different caliber is the abuse of opioids in the US. In 2019, the number of youth and adults with opioid use disorder was estimated to be between 6.7 and 7.6 million. The recognized medical condition is increasingly becoming socially explosive in the United States. Entire swaths of the country are scarred by the widespread addiction and its accompanying symptoms. In order to combat the addiction, drugs such as buprenorphine are used in the US. The National Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is now warning of the serious health consequences of these medications for opioid addiction. Because many of these drugs dissolve in the mouth, tooth decay, cavities, oral infections, and tooth loss can occur.

Around the latter set of conditions, biotech company XPhyto has long positioned itself to offer several products for the diagnosis of oral and dental diseases, such as stomatitis, periodontitis and peri-implantitis, as part of its biosensor portfolio. Most recently, XPhyto announced plans to evaluate the ability of its products to diagnose concomitant symptoms of buprenorphine. XPhyto's biosensors are self-applying and inexpensive. Given the large number of potential patients in the US alone, XPhyto's products could see increasing demand. In addition to oral and dental disease, XPhyto is also developing biosensors around Group A Streptococcus, Influenza A and COVID-19, addressing a market that is expected to reach approximately USD 42 billion by 2027, according to market researchers such as Global Market Insights. XPhyto's stock is currently trading near its lows. However, if the Company lands a complete success with one of its products, this should change given the market capitalization of around EUR 22 million. The share is very speculative but also exciting.

Valneva: Patience is needed here

The development of Valneva shows that the path to success for biotech companies is sometimes rocky. A few weeks ago, the vaccine company announced the entry of Pfizer - the share price almost doubled. Many market participants sensed a complete takeover. But the excitement has died down, and the stock has come back significantly. And this is even though the EU approved Valneva's COVID-19 vaccine in the summer. Hopes are now pinned on the planned Lyme disease vaccine, which has prompted Pfizer to invest in Valneva. However, it will probably be some time before the results are published.

Whether it is COVID-19, Lyme disease, monkeypox or the indirect effects of the opioid epidemic in the US - anyone who wants to invest in developing medical emergencies and back companies that are fighting these emergencies must have a good hand. Sometimes active ingredients do not even get off the ground; other times, the competition is faster. XPhyto may have found an interesting niche with its biosensors. If, in addition, a test is medically indicated because the drug authority warns of side effects, as is currently the case in the US, this could be the initial spark. The XPhyto share, therefore, belongs on every speculative watch list.