The hydrogen formula: How to position yourself in the billion-dollar market with Nel ASA, dynaCERT and Plug Power

Nel ASA – What follows the silence?

Even before the announcement on September 11 that Nel would be excluded from Norway's leading index, OSEBX, it had been quiet around the hydrogen pioneer for a long time. For investors who believe in the disruptive potential of the technology, this radio silence is sobering. The Company, which is otherwise known for its active communication, has not announced any significant operational news for months. This pause raises questions. Is the Company undergoing a strategic realignment under its new major shareholder, Samsung? Or is there simply a lack of positive news? The next figures are still pending.

The most recent results for the second quarter painted a clear but mixed picture. While total revenue slumped by 48%, there was a clear imbalance between the business segments. The established alkaline electrolysis business was in free fall, with a 70% decline in revenue. The situation was quite different in the PEM division, which proved to be a rock in the surf, with virtually unchanged revenues and a growing order backlog. This divergence highlights the shift in demand toward more flexible, modular solutions.

Despite the current difficulties, Nel still has some strong trump cards up its sleeve. Its strategic partnership with Samsung E&A gives it global reach and technological credibility. In addition, the Company is working intensively on a new generation of electrolysers that are set to be drastically smaller and more cost-effective. With cash reserves of over NOK 1.9 billion, the Company has enough leeway to navigate this challenging transformation phase. The path back to profitability now depends on when technological advances and partnerships can be converted into concrete, large orders. The share is currently available for NOK 2.158.

dynaCERT - Positioned for the next growth phase

The past few weeks have brought decisive operational momentum for dynaCERT. A key success is its entry into the Mexican market, one of the largest truck markets in the world. An initial order for 100 HydraGEN™ units was received through partner Hydrofuel Technologies, of which 25 have already been delivered. Hydrofuel will act as the official distribution partner for Mexico and Texas, a strategically smart positioning in a logistics corridor that handles almost half of the US-Mexican truck trade. This is more than just a single order; it is the starting signal for scaling up in a key region.

At the same time, the technology is also gaining ground in Europe. Following successful trials, the Port of Rochefort-Tonnay-Charente in France is now permanently implementing HydraGEN™ technology and will roll it out to all five port cranes by the end of 2025. Regional support from the Nouvelle Aquitaine government underscores the political and economic acceptance of the technology. Such reference projects in demanding industrial environments strengthen credibility and open the door for dynaCERT to other ports and logistics centers in Europe as well.

In September, dynaCERT underwent a significant change in leadership. John Amodeo, a recent addition to the Board of Directors, took over the position of Chief Financial Officer. The experienced manager brings over 40 years of expertise in senior financial roles, including in the metal and steel industry. His expertise in global business development will support the Company's expansion efforts. The Company had previously strengthened its balance sheet and adjusted the terms of outstanding warrants in September to increase their attractiveness to investors and lock in long-term capital. The stock has reacted positively to the latest news and is currently trading at CAD 0.135.

Plug Power – On the road to operational stability

The hydrogen industry remains a dynamic but challenging field. Plug Power is currently in the spotlight as the Company faces a tricky balancing act. It needs to reconcile rapid growth with an urgently needed improvement in profitability. The latest operating data provides encouraging signs in this regard. The production facility in Georgia reported record output of 324 tons of green hydrogen for August, with an impressive plant availability of 99.7%. Such figures underscore that the technology works on a large scale and that the reliability of the plants is increasing.

Growth is currently being driven primarily by the electrolyser business. Compared to the previous year, sales in this area have more than tripled. At the same time, Plug Power is consolidating its market position through strategic alliances, for example, with industrial gas companies or in large-scale projects such as the 2 gigawatt plant in Uzbekistan. These international advances, coupled with government loan guarantees worth billions, are expanding the business and creating recurring sources of revenue. The internal "Project Quantum Leap" program, which aims to reduce costs and increase efficiency and is already bearing fruit, forms the operational backbone.

Despite this progress, the financial situation remains challenging. Although revenue rose to USD 174 million in the second quarter, an increase of 21%, and the gross margin improved significantly from negative 92% to negative 31%, the Company continues to post losses. The biggest problem area is the negative cash flow, even though management emphasizes that it has sufficient liquidity. For investors, the key question is whether the Company will be able to maintain its growth momentum while consistently pursuing its path toward breaking even, which is targeted for the fourth quarter. The course has been set, but the test is yet to come. The stock has rallied impressively to USD 3.16 and has since consolidated to its current level of USD 2.27.

The hydrogen race is on, but the paths taken by the companies could not be more different. After the stock market slump and its exclusion from the index, Nel ASA now urgently needs to prove its operational strength again with technological advances and its partnership with Samsung. dynaCERT is making the transition from development to scaled marketing with concrete market entries in Mexico and Europe and new industrial partners. Plug Power is demonstrating impressive production figures and growth, but still faces the Herculean task of generating operational profitability from its high revenues.