February 10th, 2025 | 07:10 CET
Palantir, Desert Gold, MicroStrategy – Profits with data, gold, and Bitcoin
In times of looming trade war and high volatility, as recently triggered by DeepSeek, one should invest in booming business models. Otherwise, in these turbulent times, it is wise to move at least part of your portfolio into "safe havens." Traditionally, this has been gold, but for the younger generation, who are more willing to take risks, it is cryptocurrencies. To outperform the market in the long term requires patience and foresight. Today, we look at three companies in the fields of data processing, gold, and cryptocurrencies and examine where the risks and opportunities lie.
time to read: 4 minutes
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Author:
Armin Schulz
ISIN:
PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES INC | US69608A1088 , DESERT GOLD VENTURES | CA25039N4084 , MICROSTRATEG.A NEW DL-001 | US5949724083
Table of contents:
"[...] Our projects are at the initial, high reward exploration stage. [...]" Humphrey Hale, CEO, Managing Geologist, Carnavale Resources Ltd.
Author
Armin Schulz
Born in Mönchengladbach, he studied business administration in the Netherlands. In the course of his studies he came into contact with the stock exchange for the first time. He has more than 25 years of experience in stock market business.
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Palantir - Between the AI boom and the valuation debate
Palantir Technologies set an impressive pace in the fourth quarter of 2024: revenues rose by 36% to USD 827.5 million, significantly exceeding expectations. The US market, in particular, excelled with an increase of 52%, driven by the commercial division with a 64% increase and stable government contracts with a 45% increase. Adjusted earnings per share climbed to USD 0.14, three cents above forecasts. The Company is targeting USD 3.75 billion in revenue by 2025 – a clear signal of continued confidence in its AI-driven expansion. The integration of the AI chatbot Grok from Elon Musk's xAI underscores the strategic direction.
Palantir is positioning itself as a key player in the AI revolution. The Gotham platform for government and Foundry for commercial users generate stable cash flows while US demand is exploding. The number of commercial customers rose by 52% in 2024, supported by the "Bootcamp" sales model, which enables faster implementations. Long-term government contracts – such as the four-year extension of the Army Vantage deal – provide planning security. Analysts such as Wedbush see parallels to tech giants like Oracle and predict further upside potential from economies of scale.
Despite the successes, Palantir's valuation remains a sticking point: with a price-earnings ratio of over 180 and a price-sales ratio of around 75, the price is well above the industry average. Critics warn that even the forecast growth hardly justifies these premiums. In addition, the regional distribution reveals weaknesses: while the US division is booming, Europe is stagnating with a meager 4% growth – image problems and cultural differences are hindering growth here. The presentation of special expense adjustments (non-GAAP) in connection with recurring share-based compensation (SBC) also reduces transparency. The stock is currently trading at USD 110.85.
Desert Gold - Making exploration progress
Desert Gold has further strengthened its team with the appointment of Diallo Cheick Ousmane as Vice President of Exploration. The experienced geologist brings over 15 years of expertise from projects in the Birimian Greenstone Belt and Arabian-Nubian Shield, including key roles at Avocet Mining and Barrick Gold. His knowledge of the regional geology will help to advance the exploration of the 440 km2 SMSZ project in Mali. At the same time, Don Dudek is stepping down as a director but will remain with the Company as a senior technical advisor. CEO Jared Scharf emphasized that the realignment enables a more focused implementation of the growth strategy.
At the beginning of February, the Company published the results of the newly discovered historical data from 49 drill holes in Mogoyafara South and 29 in Linnguekoto West. These included gold grades with values of 1.58 g/t gold over 33 m and 3.4 g/t over 12 m. The results indicate possible extensions to the deposits, particularly in Mogoyafara South, where the mineralization could be extended by up to 450 m. Combined inferred resources for both zones total 479,000 ounces at a gold grade of 1.09 g/t. CEO Scharf sees this as confirmation of the "significant untapped potential" of the SMSZ project.
The planned preliminary economic assessment (PEA) for oxide and transitional deposits at Barani East and Gourbassi West is expected to be completed in the first quarter of 2025. In parallel, Desert Gold is working on updated drill plans to test newly identified zones, such as laterite-covered areas at Linnguekoto West. In addition, a mineral resource estimate for the Gourbassi West North deposit is nearly complete. With an existing mineral resource of 1.1 million ounces and a market capitalization of approximately CAD 15.8 million, the Company remains undervalued despite its progress. Analysts see opportunities through strategic partnerships or acquisitions, as a number of large resource producers are already operating in the neighborhood. The stock is currently trading at CAD 0.075.
MicroStrategy - Rebranding and Blackrock Investment
MicroStrategy became Strategy – a rebranding that underscores the Company's radical transformation. With a Bitcoin (BTC) inspired logo and orange corporate identity, the Company is positioning itself as a "Bitcoin Treasury Company". In Q4 2024, Strategy increased its BTC holdings to 471,107 units (worth around USD 45.7 billion), buying an additional 218,887 Bitcoin for USD 20.5 billion. Despite a 3% decline in revenue and a net loss of USD 670.8 million – caused by write-offs – CEO Phong Le is sticking to his long-term goals, including an annual "BTC profit" of USD 10 billion.
Donald Trump's comments that Bitcoin could become a "strategic reserve currency" indirectly play into Strategy's hands. His proposed plan to establish a USD 20 billion government Bitcoin reserve fits with Strategy's thesis of using Bitcoin as a store of value. Analysts point out that Strategy's Bitcoin holdings – now 2.5% of the total supply – make the Company a leveraged proxy for Bitcoin price movements. However, critics warn that political changes or regulatory action could destabilize this dynamic and expose Strategy to increased volatility.
For Blackrock, Strategy is still an interesting investment, as they now hold around 11.2 million shares, corresponding to around 5% of all shares. The asset manager's passive investment, disclosed in a Schedule 13G filing, coincided with the successful Nasdaq launch of Strategy's perpetual preferred shares (STRK), which rose 2% on the first day of trading. In the long term, Strategy is aiming for inclusion in the S&P 500 as soon as new accounting standards for cryptocurrencies are introduced. While optimistic analysts predict a target price of USD 560, risks lurk: Bitcoin price fluctuations, regulatory uncertainties, and operating costs could put the Company to the test. The stock is currently trading sideways at USD 327.56.
In volatile times, Palantir, Desert Gold, and MicroStrategy offer different opportunities. Palantir impresses with AI innovation and strong US growth, but the exorbitant valuation and regional weaknesses in Europe remain risks. Desert Gold scores with exploration successes in Mali and undervalued potential, while it works on the start of gold production. MicroStrategy (now Strategy) is betting big on Bitcoin as a store of value, benefiting from political narratives but at risk from regulation and BTC volatility.
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