Trump plans to invest over USD 1.5 trillion into the military! Opportunity for Rheinmetall and Graphano Energy!? CAUTION with Standard Lithium!

Can Rheinmetall benefit from Trump's billions?

US President Donald Trump is always good for a surprise. After the coup in Venezuela, he seems to have found pleasure in military operations. Times are "unrestful and dangerous," Trump wrote on his online platform Truth Social. That is why he plans to increase military spending to USD 1.5 trillion. And, of course, per year and starting as early as next year. He has already spoken to members of Congress, ministers, and other political leaders. With a budget of USD 901 billion, the US already spends more on defense than any other country. If Trump is able to implement his plan, it would give a significant boost to the business of defense contractors.

The US president's plans could also mean a growth spurt for Rheinmetall. In fiscal year 2024, Rheinmetall reported revenue of EUR 746 million in North, Middle, and South America, which corresponds to 7.7% of consolidated revenue. Although this is still small compared to European competitors such as BAE Systems, Leonardo, and Thales, the German group has systematically expanded its activities in the US in recent years. This has made it a serious player in future tenders. With the acquisition of Loc Performance and subsequent investments in capacity in the US state of Michigan, Rheinmetall has created a platform to serve US Army programs not only as an exporter but also as a local supplier. In an environment of significantly rising defense spending, funds would typically flow into modernization, repair, and rapid availability. This is precisely where Rheinmetall can score points with its US foothold in vehicle and component manufacturing, maintenance expertise, and a supply chain that is more compatible with "Buy American" requirements. In addition, higher budgets often lead to faster procurement cycles and more multi-year contracts. This would improve visibility for order inflows and could enable Rheinmetall in the US to make the leap from individual contracts to a broader program perspective. Against the backdrop of the relatively sluggish awarding of truly large contracts in Europe, this could give the stock new momentum.

Graphano Energy: Winner of Trump's plans?

Trump's plans could offer attractive opportunities for raw materials companies. Take graphite, for example: it is strategically important for the US defense industry. Among other things, as a high-temperature material, it is used in critical components, such as rocket engines. Graphite and carbon materials are used in particularly stressed nozzle areas to reduce erosion. Overall, graphite is a supply chain-critical input for defense-related electronics and industrial chains and is classified as a "critical mineral" in the US due to its relevance to national security. Washington's prioritization of this issue in terms of security policy is also evident in the Pentagon's use of instruments such as the Defense Production Act to support projects for domestic graphite value creation in order to reduce dependencies and potential supply risks in crises. Within this framework, it has also acquired stakes in the Canadian raw materials companies Trilogy Metals and Lithium Americas.

Accordingly, graphite is likely to become more of a focus for investors in the current year. Investors can position themselves with Graphano Energy, for example. The Company is advancing the development of three graphite projects in Quebec, Canada. It benefits from excellent infrastructure, tax incentives, access to clean hydroelectric power, and political support. The stock appears attractively valued and has been trending sideways since August 2025. This could soon come to an end.

Lac Aux Bouleaux is the flagship project. The September drill program yielded, among other things, a drill hole with 4.81% Cg over 12.25 meters and 6.63% Cg over 7.07 meters. Extensive near-surface graphite mineralization along various structures indicates significant deposit potential. This week, the geophysical survey using helicopter airborne magnetics ("MAG") and time domain electromagnetic ("TDEM") techniques began. This technology has already been used to successfully identify mineral systems in this promising region. An area of approximately 637 line-kilometers is being surveyed. The high-resolution data will provide important information about the subsurface and support Graphano in the strategic development of the area.

Investors can also expect news flow from the Standard Mine project. Following strong drilling results with grades of up to 15.95% graphitic carbon, a resource estimate is expected to be completed this year.

Standard Lithium: Fitch puts the brakes on lithium prices

Standard Lithium has benefited from US government support programs, though not through direct equity participation. After bottoming near USD 1 in 2025, the stock has since recovered to above USD 5. Fitch recently put a damper on lithium stocks, expressing caution about the price of lithium.

In its Global Mining Outlook, Fitch expects the lithium market to remain oversupplied in 2026. This means that the potential for sustained price increases remains limited. This assessment is in line with the stance Fitch took back in 2025, when the agency revised its lithium price assumptions downward, citing oversupply, high inventories, and weaker EV demand. The market has recently shown signs of recovery in some areas, partly because the boom in stationary storage is supporting demand, and temporary supply responses can favor price spikes. However, from Fitch's perspective, this does not change the fundamental problem that supply has grown faster than reliable, high-margin demand in recent years. For producers, this means that in 2026 and beyond, success will be achieved through cost leadership, project prioritization, and capacity discipline rather than volume. At the same time, financiers are likely to focus more on break-even prices, contract hedging, and realistic ramp-up plans, which could put pressure on particularly capital-intensive new construction projects and increase consolidation pressure in the industry.

If Trump is able to push through his plan, there are likely to be some winners on the stock market. It is not yet clear whether Rheinmetall will be one of them, but its US business should be able to grow disproportionately in the coming years. Critical raw materials are likely to be among the winners, as the tug-of-war between the US and China is likely to continue, and raw materials remain an important "weapon." Graphano Energy should stand to benefit from this trend. Standard Lithium remains one of the core investments in the lithium sector, but a prolonged consolidation phase would not be surprising after last year's sharp rise.