Hydrogen: Solutions instead of pipe dreams – Ballard Power, Plug Power, dynaCERT

Ballard Power and Plug Power are betting everything on hydrogen

When we think of hydrogen, we also think of Ballard Power's stock. The Company sells fuel cell stacks and modules for various applications, primarily for heavy-duty vehicles such as trucks, but also for trains and ships. Ballard Power also offers solutions for stationary hydrogen-based power supply. The core of Ballard Power's business model remains fuel cells. In addition, there are several collaborations, such as with automotive supplier Mahle.

Plug Power is taking a different approach. Initially a supplier of hydrogen-powered forklifts, Plug Power has evolved into a full-stack provider of hydrogen solutions. Its portfolio includes electrolysers that generate hydrogen from renewable electricity, liquid hydrogen plants and tanks, transport trailers, and its core business of fuel cell systems for various applications. Plug Power has also entered into cooperation agreements with many major industry players, including Renault, BASF, and Toyota. This broad diversification could be both a curse and a blessing for Plug Power: on the one hand, there is a risk of spreading itself too thin, but on the other hand, the Company would be perfectly positioned if hydrogen finally gains widespread global adoption. Analysts are also divided – some experts remain optimistic, while others, such as the experts at Jefferies, have drastically lowered their price target for this year to USD 0.90.

Is dynaCERT striking a chord with its transitional technology?

Over the past few years, dynaCERT has faced a fair share of skepticism surrounding hydrogen technologies. The Canadian company offers a transitional technology for reducing CO2 emissions in diesel engines. The Company's retrofit kits are suitable for trucks, buses, heavy machinery, and other commercial vehicles. The HydraGEN™ technology patented by dynaCERT has been tested to deliver up to 9.6% lower CO2 emissions and significantly lower pollutant emissions (-88.7% nitrogen oxides and -55% particulate matter). Since the conversion of a single machine or vehicle pays for itself after around one year, dynaCERT's offering is perfectly suited to today's climate: cost-cutting measures are the order of the day, especially in industry, where investment is being held back. Instead of replacing entire fleets, converting existing vehicles or machinery makes sense. With HydraLytica™, dynaCERT also offers telematics software to document fuel consumption and emissions. This even makes it possible to generate CO2 certificates. In the long term, this could create a recurring revenue model for dynaCERT, supplementing its hardware sales with income from emissions trading.

Hydrogen becomes a trillion-dollar market – Diesel remains an issue

The market forecasts for the hydrogen economy are bright: The Hydrogen Council predicts that by 2050 a hydrogen economy will emerge worldwide, generating annual revenues of USD 2.5 trillion. According to an analysis by PwC, around one-third of all new trucks in Europe, North America, and China could be emission-free by 2030. At the same time, however, many existing diesel vehicles will remain in use. Machinery is also likely to continue to be powered by diesel well beyond 2030. There is therefore market potential for solutions from all three companies – both fuel cells and conversion kits for existing diesel engines are likely to be in demand. When the CO2 price in Germany is linked to the EU Emissions Trading System from 2027, there could be significant price fluctuations. To reduce this short-term risk, fleet operators and industrial companies could turn to transition technologies such as those offered by dynaCERT. In recent weeks and months, the Company, which also has a branch in Germany, has been promoting its products at trade fairs to attract new customers. At bauma in Munich, COO Kevin Unrath also announced the start of sequential production of the retrofit kits in order to be able to deliver higher volumes. Feedback from existing customers is positive and has led to follow-up orders.

Hydrogen turnaround: dynaCERT likely to offer the greatest leverage

dynaCERT is indeed making progress – revenue tripled in 2024. However, with annual revenue of CAD 1.6 million, the Company is still in the early stages of commercialization. In the coming quarters, dynaCERT will have to prove that its solutions resonate with customers in logistics and industry. The dynaCERT share is a speculative penny stock with all the associated risks - but also significant upside potential. If HydraGEN™ from dynaCERT becomes a serious alternative for industry, a revaluation is possible, which is likely to be more dynamic than for the shares of Plug Power and Ballard Power. Both shares are still valued more ambitiously, thanks in part to their more developed businesses. Compared to the aforementioned hydrogen market leaders, all of which are committed to completely phasing out CO2 emissions, dynaCERT scores with its transition technology, which offers comparatively low investment costs and quick results.