Growth Plans Meet Reality: Gerresheimer, Redcare Pharmacy and Volatus Aerospace

Gerresheimer Rises 5.5%: What Wednesday's Numbers Must Prove

Gerresheimer shares rose 5.5% to EUR 27.82 in Xetra trading at the start of the week. After the prolonged decline in the share price, this offers some hope. But as early as Wednesday, September 30, the company faces a crucial test: The Düsseldorf-based group plans to present preliminary results for the second quarter and the first half of 2026. It remains to be seen whether the latest surge in the share price is more than just a vote of confidence.

Gerresheimer has long supplied far more than glass vials. Syringes, injection systems, and medical packaging are all part of its business with pharmaceutical manufacturers. In the first quarter, revenue rose slightly to an adjusted EUR 524 million from EUR 519 million, according to preliminary figures. Demand for drug delivery systems, in particular, helped drive growth. However, adjusted operating earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) fell from an adjusted EUR 81 million to EUR 66 million. The margin dropped from 15.7% to 12.6%. In other words, higher revenue resulted in lower earnings.

The extent of the challenges is evident in the container glass business. There, adjusted EBITDA plummeted from an adjusted EUR 32 million to EUR 6 million. Weak demand, a production halt in the US, and a targeted inventory reduction weighed on results. At the same time, the Group's free cash flow improved from minus EUR 141 million to minus EUR 32 million. This is a great improvement, but the figure remains negative. What matters to shareholders now is whether Gerresheimer can improve both liquidity and profitability at the same time.

Added to this is the planned sale of Centor and the global pharmaceutical plastic packaging business to an Apax fund. The agreed enterprise value for both combined is approximately EUR 1.5 billion. The expected proceeds are intended to reduce debt. However, the sales are not yet finalized: Centor is scheduled to be sold by the end of fiscal year 2026, and the plastics business in the first half of 2027. In addition, businesses that collectively generated approximately EUR 570 million in revenue in 2025 are being divested. The decisive question is how profitable the remaining Group will be in the future.

Gerresheimer must also regain confidence in its financial reporting. Internal investigations into revenue recognition and accounting practices for 2024 and 2025, which have since been completed, delayed the release of financial results. Since early summer, the share price has mostly fluctuated between about EUR 25 and 30, well below previous highs. Today's jump has not yet taken it out of this range. If Gerresheimer reports convincing margins and cash-flow progress on Wednesday, the recovery could gain traction. If the figures remain weak, the rise would have been primarily a false start.

Volatus Aerospace: Drone Pioneer on the Verge of a Breakthrough?

Volatus Aerospace is consistently expanding its market position in North America's defence sector. After the company was approved for all five categories of the Canadian Armed Forces' procurement Defence Drone Initiative (DDI) marketplace, technological validation has now followed. On September 22, 2026, the company successfully completed test flights in environments without the global GPS satellite navigation system using its AI-based flight control and autonomous operating system, V-Cortex™. With Western rearmament initiatives and a projected global market volume for drone systems of USD 160 billion by 2034, Volatus occupies a key technological position within NATO's defence infrastructure.

This strategic positioning is also becoming increasingly evident in major procurement contracts. The Canadian Department of Defence has awarded the company a 5-year contract to initially supply 100 tactical ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance) drones, with deliveries set to begin in the fourth quarter of 2026. A framework option for up to 4,900 additional units was also agreed upon, bringing the total to a maximum of 5,000 aircraft, capped at a total volume of CAD 25 million (approximately EUR 16.5 million). Investors should not yet assume this maximum figure represents guaranteed fixed revenue; however, the call-off agreement already demonstrates the successful transition from government pilot studies to industrial series production.

At the fundamental level, the dynamic business development is reflected in accelerated operating revenue growth. In the second quarter of 2026, Volatus generated quarterly revenue of CAD 8.42 million (approximately USD 5.55 million), representing a further increase of 49.5%. This momentum was driven by 38% growth in the hardware equipment segment and a 59% jump in high-margin services. With cash reserves of CAD 59.2 million, management has sufficient flexibility to scale up manufacturing facilities in Mirabel and the control centre in Vaughan. This integrated approach enables the company to offer hardware, control software, and training services from a single source.

Capital markets are recognising this progress but continue to price in future scaling potential at a discount. Based on 725,838,256 outstanding common shares and a share price of CAD 0.57, the market capitalization stands at approximately CAD 414 million. After breaking above the 50-day moving average at CAD 0.53 but falling below the 200-day moving average at CAD 0.63, the chart has formed a wedge pattern. A stable support zone extends between CAD 0.42 and CAD 0.46, while a sustained breakout above the CAD 0.70 threshold is likely to unlock additional upside potential up to the psychological level of CAD 1.00.

Redcare Pharmacy Soars 13%: Will E-Prescriptions Now Trigger a Trend Reversal?

Just a few weeks ago, Redcare Pharmacy shares were under pressure. On Monday, sentiment shifted abruptly: Following another upward revision to its forecast, the share price jumped 12.7% to EUR 68.20 and led the SDAX. The market is betting that the mail-order pharmacy will benefit increasingly from Germany's e-prescription system. But how much of this growth will ultimately translate into profit?

The new figures provide ample cause for optimism. In Germany, revenue from prescription medications rose by 56% in the third quarter, according to preliminary calculations. In September, the figure was 51%, even though the year-over-year comparison was more challenging due to an Rx bonus introduced at that time. Redcare now expects revenue in this segment to reach EUR 730 to 760 million in 2026, up from the previous forecast of EUR 680 to 720 million. The forecast for group-wide revenue growth has also been raised from 15-17% to 16-18%.

German customers can easily understand what lies behind these percentages. With CardLink, an e-prescription can be redeemed via an app and a health card without having to visit a pharmacy. Gematik has extended the approval for this process through the end of March 2028. This allows Redcare to continue using the digital ordering channel while it develops the next technical solution for remote dispensing. Satisfaction among e-prescription customers reached a Net Promoter Score of 80 points in August, up six points from a year earlier.

The growth surge was already evident in the second quarter. German revenue from prescription drugs rose 58% to EUR 180 million. Group-wide, revenue rose by 20% to EUR 853 million, and the number of active customers reached 14.7 million. The international business also posted positive adjusted EBITDA of EUR 1.4 million for the first time. After a weaker July, sales of over-the-counter products also picked up again in August and September.

Profitability is also worth a closer look. Adjusted EBITDA rose by 63% to EUR 29.6 million in the second quarter, with the margin increasing from 2.6% to 3.5%. At the same time, the gross margin fell from 23.8% to 22.1%, due in part to the growing share of prescription drugs. A lower sales-to-revenue ratio has so far more than offset this effect. Whether this will continue as the Rx share rises further remains a key factor.

It is therefore striking that, despite a higher revenue forecast, Redcare is sticking to an adjusted EBITDA margin of 2.5 to 3.0% for the full year. The share price is also facing a test: In July and August, recovery attempts stalled in the EUR 70 to 73 range. The recent jump to EUR 71.90 brings the stock back into this zone. The company will release its full quarterly results on October 29. It remains to be seen whether e-prescriptions will also drive a sustainable increase in operating income.

Following revenue problems, divestitures and delayed reporting, Gerresheimer must prove that margins, cash flow and investor confidence are returning sustainably. Volatus Aerospace is gaining strategic importance with drone orders and GPS-independent technology, but must first scale its growth profitably. Redcare Pharmacy is benefiting significantly from e-prescriptions and has raised its forecast, but declining gross margins and a low return on earnings remain key risks.