Geopolitics as an opportunity: How to profit now with BYD, Pasinex Resources, and Rio Tinto

BYD – On course for expansion, but facing regulatory pressure

For BYD, the world is currently a paradoxical place. On the one hand, international doors are opening. According to reports, the Company is negotiating battery deliveries to Ford and could benefit from a possible EU price agreement that would replace punitive tariffs. These global opportunities are proof of the Company's sought-after technology and cost efficiency. On the other hand, the risks are growing. In the US, new sanctions lists could classify BYD as a supposed military ally, which would make market access more difficult. However, the biggest uncertainty remains domestic politics, where Beijing appears to be cracking down harder and harder.

This is currently evident in the Chinese domestic market. The authorities are threatening "severe penalties" against the new wave of price cuts and discount campaigns, which BYD's competitors, such as BMW and SAIC, are also resorting to. The government plans to curb "excessive competition" that is ruining the margins of all involved. For BYD, this presents a dilemma: on the one hand, it must remain competitive in the world's most challenging market, while on the other hand, regulatory pressure is tightening the boundaries. The industry association CAAM also expects a significant slowdown in growth for new vehicles and exports.

Despite the adversities in its core market, the outlook for BYD is not bleak, but rather multifaceted. The strategy of securing its position through technological leadership and vertical integration is bearing fruit, as the battery talks with Ford shows. The future lies in global scaling and the ability to grow profitably overseas while maintaining a balance between market share and profitability at home. For investors, 2026 will therefore be a year of reckoning. Can the volume champion also become the margin champion in an increasingly complex geopolitical environment?
The course for this is now being set. The share is currently trading at around EUR 10.81.

Pasinex Resources – Strategic strengthening for the next chapter of growth

Pasinex Resources is positioning itself in a promising mining region. Turkey not only offers established infrastructure and expertise, but also direct access to important sales markets in Europe and beyond. The Company is consistently exploiting these locational advantages and further expanding its operational control. The latest step of converting selected liabilities into equity strengthens the balance sheet in the long term and creates financial leeway for the planned growth initiatives. This financial realignment reduces the interest burden and consolidates the foundation for upcoming investments.

Pasinex recently achieved two important strategic goals. With the successful purchase of Horzum A.Ş. and the Sarıkaya project, the Company now has complete control over both assets. This full control not only makes things easier but also enables significantly faster implementation. Decisions can now be made without detours, and operational plans can be implemented quickly and seamlessly. This has created clarity and shows where the journey is headed. Management is consistently focused on long-term value, without compromise or shared responsibilities. This is good news for shareholders, as it ensures greater transparency and the justified hope of benefiting fully from the high-grade zinc deposits in the future.

For the current year, the priorities are clearly on operational implementation. Extensive tunneling is beginning at the Pinargözü mine to develop deeper, high-grade zones and expand the resource base. At the same time, active exploration and development work is starting at Sarıkaya to diversify the portfolio. Supported by its strengthened balance sheet and consolidated portfolio, the Company can now focus fully on increasing its production profile. The course has been set for the next stage of growth, with the focus on efficiently leveraging existing value. The share is currently trading at around CAD 0.10.

Rio Tinto – Between mega-deal and operational strength

For Rio Tinto, the geopolitical map is currently of paramount importance. The clearest signal is the resumption of merger talks with Glencore. Such a mega-transaction would create the world's largest commodities group, but would be subject to enormous regulatory scrutiny. China, in particular, as a key consumer of iron and copper, would have a strong say and could demand concessions or even the sale of key assets. The strategic importance of copper for electrification further exacerbates the political complexity.

However, the Company is currently showing strategic initiative regardless of the merger rumors. The cooperation with BHP in the Pilbara region aims to tap into further ore volumes with minimal capital expenditure. At the same time, Rio Tinto secured Amazon as a prominent first customer for its low-carbon "Nuton" copper, which is to be used in US data centers. A newly commissioned solar park in Utah, which was built using tellurium produced in-house, also underscores the path to more sustainable self-sufficiency.

Operations performed very well in the last quarter. Rio Tinto reported record iron ore production from Pilbara and simultaneously increased copper production, driven by the growing Oyu Tolgoi underground mine in Mongolia. This strength in its core businesses provides solid financial backing. The medium-term outlook now depends largely on the outcome of the Glencore negotiations. If a deal is successful, Rio Tinto would restructure itself and significantly reduce its dependence on iron ore. If it fails, it will remain an operationally strong but less transformed company. The share price is currently trading at EUR 75.88.

Strategic positioning and political resilience are crucial in the new geo-economy. BYD is skillfully navigating between global expansion and domestic regulatory pressure, but needs to translate its technological leadership into more stable margins. Pasinex Resources is creating the conditions for operational growth with full control over its Turkish zinc projects and a stronger balance sheet. Rio Tinto demonstrates operational strength in its core areas, while a potential mega-deal with Glencore offers the prospect for structural realignment. For investors, the opportunities lie in the selective use of these geopolitical dynamics.