Close menu




July 27th, 2023 | 07:15 CEST

BioNTech, Defiance Silver, Vonovia - Waiting for the turnaround

  • Mining
  • Silver
  • Turnaround
  • Biotechnology
  • RealEstate
Photo credits: pixabay.com

The stock market is not a one-way street, so it happens time and again that companies that initially performed well run into problems, leading to falling prices. After an extended period of underperformance, bargain hunters often step in, seeking the right entry point to profit from a potential turnaround. One announcement can turn the tide and influence the price of a stock. We have selected three candidates where a turnaround could be imminent, provided an appropriate news catalyst exists.

time to read: 5 minutes | Author: Armin Schulz
ISIN: BIONTECH SE SPON. ADRS 1 | US09075V1026 , DEFIANCE SILVER CORP. | CA2447672080 , VONOVIA SE NA O.N. | DE000A1ML7J1

Table of contents:


    BioNTech - Waiting for the next blockbuster

    BioNTech won the race for the Corona vaccine. That was followed by billions in revenue and record profits. The stock was soaring. Since the pandemic was officially declared over, sales and profits have been falling. For the 2nd quarter, the figures of which are to be published on August 7, analysts even expect losses. Much more important than the figures, however, is the update on the operating business. Recently, good news failed to drive the share price, such as the start of the Phase III trial of ONC-392/BNT316 in metastatic non-small cell lung cancer.

    In other biotech companies, such an announcement would be a share price driver, but in the case of the Mainz-based company, buyers have failed to materialize. Yet a cancer therapy could be the next blockbuster, and it is the first step in BioNTech's collaboration with OncoC4. Moreover, BioNTech's oncology pipeline is well-stocked, and they plan to initiate further studies with potential for approval in 2024. In addition, a building covering an area of 25,000 sqm is currently being constructed in Mainz to support further research, where cancer therapies will be the focus. It is scheduled to be operational from 2025. The success of the Comirnaty vaccine has opened the door for mRNA therapies.

    With Comirnaty's sales not expected to grow, even though it has submitted joint applications with Pfizer to the US FDA for the Omicron XBB.1.5-adapted monovalent COVID-19 vaccine, the focus is on the product pipeline. In Germany, the stock has been running sideways between EUR 91.62 and EUR 110.20 since mid-May. The share is currently trading at EUR 96.88. On the NASDAQ, the psychologically important mark of USD 100 has been held so far. If the mark breaks, the share could drop further.

    Defiance Silver - Awaiting the conclusion of the legal proceedings

    Defiance Silver is active in Mexico, where it owns the Zacateca Silver Project, consisting of four properties named San Acacio, Lucita, Lagartos, and Panuco, as well as the Tepal Gold-Copper Project. On June 7, initial results from the San Acacio drill program were released. The 4 holes evaluated had the highest grades and widest widths of mineralization on the property to date. Of particular note is hole DDSA-23-66, which returned the widest width to date: 41.83 m at 157.30 g/t silver. Peak silver grade was 5,510 g/t or 6,014 g/t silver equivalent. The original initial resource estimate was for 16.9 million ounces of silver, and since then, additional significant discoveries have been made outside the original drill area. The Veta Grande vein system, in particular, appears to have very high-grade mineralization.

    The other 3 Zacateca properties are still at an early exploration stage, but again, initial drilling has already found very high grades of silver. The facts and figures speak for themselves, yet the share has been under pressure since May 2021. The reason for this is the Tepal project, which according to a NI 43-101 resource estimate, hosts over 1.8 million ounces of gold and 813 million pounds of copper and has a completed pre-feasibility study. Work has been unable to continue here for some time because fraudsters have managed to transfer the mineral concessions to a third party using forged documents. A legal dispute has been ongoing ever since. Douglas Cavey, the Executive Vice President, stated at the gold conference in Frankfurt that the Company has the support of the Minister of Economy and also enjoys backing from the Mexican mining industry.

    He hopes that the process will be concluded positively in the next 10 months and that the project can then be moved forward. If the corresponding announcement comes, the share price should turn around abruptly. **In 2021, the share price was still over CAD 1. Currently, one share certificate can be bought for CAD 0.16, giving the Company a market capitalization of just CAD 36.4 million. Approximately CAD 5.5 million in cash is available for the exploration work this year and for the final payments to bring Lucita and San Acacio into 100% ownership. Risk-averse investors can build an initial position here.

    Vonovia - Waiting for the end of interest rate hikes

    Vonovia is considered the largest real estate group in Europe. The ECB's zero interest rate policy played into the Company's cards. It grew without paying interest and made acquisitions such as Deutsche Wohnen. As a result, the debts have increased, and since the outbreak of the Ukraine conflict, inflation has been on the rise. The US Federal Reserve (FED) has tried since then to stop the price increase by raising the interest rates. On July 26, the FED will likely raise interest rates by another 0.25%. This, in turn, puts pressure on the ECB because inflation is still stronger in Europe than in the US.

    Any upward move in interest rates is poison for the indebted Vonovia Group. Interest expenses for the debt, which could previously be refinanced cheaply for a long time, are now rising significantly. As a result, earnings are falling. The Group has already sold properties for several billion euros and halved dividends to give itself breathing room. In addition, real estate prices are falling, as many people can no longer afford to buy property due to increased interest rates. Vonovia's tenants are also suffering from inflation, and there are fears that some tenants could default on their payments.

    There has recently been a tailwind from Deutsche Bank, which believes that the fall in real estate prices has been halted for now. On the one hand, this means there are fewer balance sheet problems. On the other hand, this creates a more favorable environment for buyers, who may now be more inclined to purchase at current levels. EUR 300 million is retained by the Company, as around 45% of shareholders have opted for a stock dividend. The share has bounced off the all-time low of EUR 15.21 and can be had for EUR 20.93. The average price target of analysts is EUR 28.99. As soon as the central banks announce the end of interest rate hikes, this would be an initial spark for real estate stocks.


    For all three companies, the outlook is good. In the case of BioNTech, only one preparation against cancer would have to be approved, and buyers would be lining up. Defiance Silver only needs official confirmation from the court that the fraud case will be reversed and can then hit the ground running. Vonovia is dependent on the central banks. The high level of debt is squeezing and must remain refinanceable. However, interest rates are still rising, which is likely to create further pressure.


    Conflict of interest

    Pursuant to §85 of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG), we point out that Apaton Finance GmbH as well as partners, authors or employees of Apaton Finance GmbH (hereinafter referred to as "Relevant Persons") may hold shares or other financial instruments of the aforementioned companies in the future or may bet on rising or falling prices and thus a conflict of interest may arise in the future. The Relevant Persons reserve the right to buy or sell shares or other financial instruments of the Company at any time (hereinafter each a "Transaction"). Transactions may, under certain circumstances, influence the respective price of the shares or other financial instruments of the Company.

    In addition, Apaton Finance GmbH is active in the context of the preparation and publication of the reporting in paid contractual relationships.

    For this reason, there is a concrete conflict of interest.

    The above information on existing conflicts of interest applies to all types and forms of publication used by Apaton Finance GmbH for publications on companies.

    Risk notice

    Apaton Finance GmbH offers editors, agencies and companies the opportunity to publish commentaries, interviews, summaries, news and the like on news.financial. These contents are exclusively for the information of the readers and do not represent any call to action or recommendations, neither explicitly nor implicitly they are to be understood as an assurance of possible price developments. The contents do not replace individual expert investment advice and do not constitute an offer to sell the discussed share(s) or other financial instruments, nor an invitation to buy or sell such.

    The content is expressly not a financial analysis, but a journalistic or advertising text. Readers or users who make investment decisions or carry out transactions on the basis of the information provided here do so entirely at their own risk. No contractual relationship is established between Apaton Finance GmbH and its readers or the users of its offers, as our information only refers to the company and not to the investment decision of the reader or user.

    The acquisition of financial instruments involves high risks, which can lead to the total loss of the invested capital. The information published by Apaton Finance GmbH and its authors is based on careful research. Nevertheless, no liability is assumed for financial losses or a content-related guarantee for the topicality, correctness, appropriateness and completeness of the content provided here. Please also note our Terms of use.


    Der Autor

    Armin Schulz

    Born in Mönchengladbach, he studied business administration in the Netherlands. In the course of his studies he came into contact with the stock exchange for the first time. He has more than 25 years of experience in stock market business.

    About the author



    Related comments:

    Commented by Juliane Zielonka on February 6th, 2025 | 08:30 CET

    Palantir, First Phosphate, BYD – AI, battery raw materials, and e-mobility are driving growth

    • Mining
    • phosphate
    • Software
    • AI
    • Electromobility

    Fresh quarterly figures and new projects for the electrified world shape this week's stock market. Palantir is posting impressive quarterly figures and achieving new price jumps on the stock market. Investors can expect further growth from the US company with the DOGE project from Trump and Musk. DOGE is streamlining bureaucratic structures, a huge opportunity for Palantir. Raw material producer First Phosphate is positioning itself in the booming market for LFP batteries and is planning sustainable large-scale production of battery raw materials in Canada. Meanwhile, Chinese electric automaker BYD is strengthening its presence in Germany with the appointment of an experienced domestic sales director and setting ambitious sales targets of 50,000 vehicles per year. The details.

    Read

    Commented by Fabian Lorenz on February 6th, 2025 | 07:40 CET

    GOLD and ARMAMENTS unstoppable: Renk outperforms Hensoldt – Barrick Gold and First Nordic Metals with MOMENTUM

    • Mining
    • Gold
    • Commodities
    • Defense

    Gold and defense stocks are currently unstoppable. The gold price is now well above the USD 2,800 mark. Just in time for the record price, insider tip First Nordic Metals is starting its drilling program in Sweden. The stock has taken off, and investors can look forward to a lively news flow. Even gold giant Barrick is sending positive signals, and the stock is picking up momentum. "Gold has truly arrived as the ultimate store of value," the Barrick CEO said in an interview with Bloomberg. Defense stocks are also completely unfazed by Donald Trump's tariff threats. While Rheinmetall is trading at an all-time high, Renk seems to be leaving the downward trend behind and finally catching up. Hensoldt's performance is clearly being surpassed. Will the momentum continue?

    Read

    Commented by Fabian Lorenz on February 6th, 2025 | 07:20 CET

    Puma, Nordex, and Power Nickel - Potential for a price jump? Analysts see opportunities in these stocks

    • Mining
    • Nickel
    • Gold
    • Commodities
    • renewableenergies
    • Sportswear

    Power Nickel's shares were among the commodity high flyers of 2024. The upward trend appears to be continuing in the new year. Power Nickel's high-grade Nisk project is increasingly turning into a gold mine with numerous valuable metals. To increase its value further, it will continue to drill and spin off non-core activities. Will analysts soon be raising their price targets? Puma shareholders have been waiting in vain for a price jump for quite some time. The sporting goods company is caught in a margin trap. The target prices are widely divergent. After difficult years, Nordex is actually doing well. But the US is becoming more and more of a concern. And now there is also a headwind in Germany.

    Read