Close menu




January 3rd, 2024 | 07:10 CET

Bayer, Defence Therapeutics, Pfizer - Buckle up for the rebound

  • Biotechnology
  • Pharma
Photo credits: pixabay.com

As the end of the year approaches, the savvy equity investor begins to optimize their equity portfolio for tax purposes. During this time, investors are particularly keen to review their investments and make strategic adjustments to minimize the tax burden. This approach, often referred to as "tax-loss harvesting" or "loss offsetting", involves the clever realization of losses in order to reduce capital gains tax due on profits made in the same year. This means that shares that have not performed so well over the course of the year are often sold off again in December. In the new year, the selling pressure disappears, and the shares can start their rebound. Today, we are looking at three potential candidates.

time to read: 4 minutes | Author: Armin Schulz
ISIN: BAYER AG NA O.N. | DE000BAY0017 , DEFENCE THERAPEUTICS INC | CA24463V1013 , PFIZER INC. DL-_05 | US7170811035

Table of contents:


    David Elsley, CEO, Cardiol Therapeutics Inc.
    "[...] As a company dedicated to developing treatments for rare heart diseases, we see this as an opportune moment to contribute to the fight against heart disease and make meaningful strides in improving heart health worldwide. [...]" David Elsley, CEO, Cardiol Therapeutics Inc.

    Full interview

     

    Bayer - The turnaround should succeed in 2024

    Bayer shares recorded a loss of a good 30% in 2023. The challenges for the Company include declining sales in the Crop Science division, setbacks in clinical trials, glyphosate-related legal disputes and high financial debt. However, there are increasing signs that the share price slump following the failure of the blood thinner Asundexian may have been exaggerated. That is because the Company's executive bodies have recently been buying more shares, which can always be considered positive, and there have also been successes with some drugs such as Nubeqa and Kerendia.

    In addition, shortly before the turn of the year there was finally another positive decision in favor of Bayer in a glyphosate lawsuit. This means that 10 of the last 15 lawsuits have been won. From this, one could deduce that the provisions for the legal disputes in this area should be sufficient. Nevertheless, an end to the wave of lawsuits is not yet in sight and it can sometimes go through several instances if very high compensation payments have been imposed in a first judgment. These are often reduced in the following cases. This uncertainty has been weighing on the share price for some time.

    As a result, shareholder activists have called for the Group to be broken up. No decision has yet been made in this regard. The new CEO, Bill Anderson, is expected to outline his future strategy in detail at the Capital Markets Day on March 5. The fourth quarter results will also be published on the same day. If the EUR 11.3 to 11.8 billion EBITDA target is achieved, adjusted earnings per share will be between EUR 6.20 and EUR 6.40. Based on the current share price of EUR 34.25, this is a factor of 5.4. There are some challenges, but the upside potential is definitely there.

    Defence Therapeutics - Phase I study can begin

    Defence Therapeutics has achieved an enormous breakthrough in drug delivery. With the development of Accum™ technology, the Company demonstrates up to tenfold increased efficacy in the delivery of drugs to infected cells compared to traditional methods. This novel, patented technology represents a turning point in the treatment of cancer by overcoming existing biological hurdles for existing cancer drugs. The chemotherapeutic AccuTOX™, an injectable cancer molecule, has proven itself in cancer treatment tests.

    On December 11, the Company announced the FDA's approval of an Investigational New Drug application for a Phase I clinical trial of AccuTOX™ for the treatment of solid cancer tumors. The study's primary objective is to determine the safest dose to use AccuTOX™ in combination with Opdualag™ in patients with unresectable melanoma. A milestone has thus been reached. The next step is to confirm the results from the preclinical tests, which have already shown limited tumor growth and even a complete therapeutic outcome in 70% of cases. This would open up a market worth billions to Defence Therapeutics.

    By 2029, the solid tumor market is expected to quadruple to over USD 900 billion. However, the Accum™ technology is not only a complement to already approved ADC (Antibody Drug Conjugate) therapies but also forms the basis for the Company's own development of innovative vaccines. Despite all the good news and study results, the share came under pressure at the end of the year. The range around CAD 2.19 has now held three times. The share is currently trading at CAD 2.33. If the study results are positive, it could quickly return to last year's high of CAD 4.85.

    Pfizer - Looking good in the long term

    Pfizer shares lost almost 45% of their value in the past year. The significant drop in demand for the COVID-19 vaccine was one of the reasons why the figures were no longer as strong as in the previous year. The profits from the highly profitable COVID years have been invested in the future. The Company completed the acquisition of Seagen for USD 43 billion to strengthen its presence in the rapidly growing market for cancer drugs. The portfolio was thus expanded by adding three approved cancer drugs.

    In January, Pfizer plans to increase the prices of 124 drugs, while its subsidiary Hospira intends to raise the sales price of 22 products. The reason given is the price negotiations with the US government that are being conducted this year as part of the Inflation Reduction Act. Increased demand for Paxlovid could also lead to rising sales. Due to the increased COVID-19 figures for the JN.1 variant, the drug is in greater demand for treatment. On the other hand, several patents are due to expire in the next four years, which has brought Pfizer a lot of money.

    In mid-December, the FDA approved the combination of PADCEV® with KEYTRUDA® for the treatment of advanced bladder cancer. The combination has almost doubled survival rates and opens up an alternative to platinum-containing chemotherapy as a first-line treatment. This could boost sales. Although sales in the last quarter were below expectations, profits were higher than forecast. The Group increased the dividend by 2.4%. On March 1, USD 0.42 per share will be paid for the last quarter, representing a dividend yield of 5.8% at a share price of USD 28.79.


    All three of the candidates presented have lost ground in the past year. However, as is so often the case, the stock market has exaggerated. At Bayer, a drug candidate is not automatically worth a quarter of the Company and the glyphosate lawsuits are also progressing slowly. A split-up of the Company could have a positive effect. Defence Therapeutics has created a patented platform that delivers active ingredients where they belong and can overcome biological barriers, optimizing the efficacy of the drugs and offering many scaling options. If the Phase I study results are positive, the share will quickly take off again. Pfizer has suffered from the last few "fat" years. This year, as expected, the figures were significantly worse. But the Company pays a high dividend and has already invested money in the future.


    Conflict of interest

    Pursuant to §85 of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG), we point out that Apaton Finance GmbH as well as partners, authors or employees of Apaton Finance GmbH (hereinafter referred to as "Relevant Persons") may hold shares or other financial instruments of the aforementioned companies in the future or may bet on rising or falling prices and thus a conflict of interest may arise in the future. The Relevant Persons reserve the right to buy or sell shares or other financial instruments of the Company at any time (hereinafter each a "Transaction"). Transactions may, under certain circumstances, influence the respective price of the shares or other financial instruments of the Company.

    In addition, Apaton Finance GmbH is active in the context of the preparation and publication of the reporting in paid contractual relationships.

    For this reason, there is a concrete conflict of interest.

    The above information on existing conflicts of interest applies to all types and forms of publication used by Apaton Finance GmbH for publications on companies.

    Risk notice

    Apaton Finance GmbH offers editors, agencies and companies the opportunity to publish commentaries, interviews, summaries, news and the like on news.financial. These contents are exclusively for the information of the readers and do not represent any call to action or recommendations, neither explicitly nor implicitly they are to be understood as an assurance of possible price developments. The contents do not replace individual expert investment advice and do not constitute an offer to sell the discussed share(s) or other financial instruments, nor an invitation to buy or sell such.

    The content is expressly not a financial analysis, but a journalistic or advertising text. Readers or users who make investment decisions or carry out transactions on the basis of the information provided here do so entirely at their own risk. No contractual relationship is established between Apaton Finance GmbH and its readers or the users of its offers, as our information only refers to the company and not to the investment decision of the reader or user.

    The acquisition of financial instruments involves high risks, which can lead to the total loss of the invested capital. The information published by Apaton Finance GmbH and its authors is based on careful research. Nevertheless, no liability is assumed for financial losses or a content-related guarantee for the topicality, correctness, appropriateness and completeness of the content provided here. Please also note our Terms of use.


    Der Autor

    Armin Schulz

    Born in Mönchengladbach, he studied business administration in the Netherlands. In the course of his studies he came into contact with the stock exchange for the first time. He has more than 25 years of experience in stock market business.

    About the author



    Related comments:

    Commented by André Will-Laudien on February 20th, 2024 | 07:30 CET

    Takeover fever in the biotech sector! Will MorphoSys now be followed by Defence Therapeutics, Evotec and Bayer?

    • Biotechnology
    • Pharma
    • Innovations

    It has happened: Novartis is bidding for MorphoSys. Once again, a long-lasting and persistent rumour mill eventually confirms itself. Those who remained loyal to MorphoSys despite heavy selling last fall have now made a profit of over 300%. If we turn the analytical magnifying glass on the sector, we can see that the speculative biotech stock market segment has started to move again since the challenging year 2023. Hopes of falling interest rates in the near future, along with several other M&A hopes, have led to steady inflows into listed bio-ETFs, resulting in fund managers having recently adjusted their weightings upwards. We analyze which stocks are currently making the loudest noise.

    Read

    Commented by André Will-Laudien on February 16th, 2024 | 07:00 CET

    MorphoSys and Cardiol Therapeutics in upward mode, while Bayer and Pfizer are in slow mode

    • Biotechnology
    • Pharma

    The biotech sector has made a very differentiated start to the new year. While the old favorites are barely moving, the second-line stocks MorphoSys and Cardiol Therapeutics are making a real splash. At Bayer, the bad news just won't go away, and despite a successful major takeover, Pfizer has not yet found its forward gear. After a rally of almost 15% in December, the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index (NBI) has taken a pause in the current year. Now, everyone is waiting for the first interest rate cut by central banks. Inflation is already falling, and the negative economic data for the Eurozone is increasing. The ECB would normally be in demand. What should investors urgently keep an eye on?

    Read

    Commented by Fabian Lorenz on February 14th, 2024 | 07:00 CET

    Plug Power, Bayer, Defense Metals: Shares in panic mode

    • Mining
    • RareEarths
    • Hydrogen
    • Pharma

    Is everything not so bad at Plug Power, after all? In January, the hydrogen specialist triggered panic among investors with an announced capital increase. Now, the CEO is suddenly rowing back. So, should one buy the stock now? One analyst advises caution. Bayer shareholders are also in panic mode. The downward trend of the share simply cannot find a bottom. Even at this level, analysts are cautious. Defense Metals, on the other hand, is benefiting from panic - because this concerns the supply of rare earths. The dependence on China is enormous. Defense Metals aims to change this with its rare earth project in Canada. The Company CEO expressed confidence in an interview, stating that an important agreement has been reached with the local population, and important dates are on the horizon.

    Read