Who benefits from the customs agreement? Volkswagen, BASF, and Globex Mining

IfW: Customs deal is "bad business"

Exports from the EU to the US will become 15% more expensive in the future, including vehicles and chemical products. Customs duties on aluminum and steel will remain at 50%. Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned that the agreement could "seriously damage the export-oriented German economy". The Federation of German Industries (BDI) stated that "even a tariff of 15% will have immense negative effects on the export-oriented German industry." Economists at the *Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) criticized the agreement, saying it "jeopardizes the rules-based global economic order" and could be seen as capitulation by the EU to US demands. The economists called the tariff deal a "bad deal."

BASF and Volkswagen – Different signs, identical result

The new tariffs are problematic for the automotive industry because the US is still the most important export market. While sales in China are continuing to decline, the tariffs are now also weighing on exports to the US, a major car market. In April, German vehicle exports to the US fell by 13% and in May by 25%. As the tariff on vehicles was previously 2.5%, experts estimate that Volkswagen and Co. could lose around EUR 10 billion in cash flow in 2025 as a result of the new rules. Oxford Economics estimates that German vehicle exports could fall by 7.1%, which would have consequences for entire supply chains, disrupt production, and even lead to rising costs.

Although the chemical sector, and BASF in particular, also supplies the European market heavily with its products and is therefore not so dependent on exports to the US, the industry, which the EU Commission has described as the "industry of industries," is in crisis for other reasons. High energy prices, the requirements of the green transformation, and the third year of recession in Germany are weighing on industry and chemical giant BASF. A few weeks ago, BASF lowered its outlook for the current fiscal year due to "ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties."

History shows: Tariffs drive gold

While there appear to be clear and less clear losers in the tariff deal in the industrial sector, the situation looks different for companies in the precious metals sector. Tariffs typically lead to rising prices. Gold, in turn, benefits in times of inflation. The article "Gold and Trade Wars: How Tariffs Could Impact the Gold Market" examines historical developments and links them to rising gold prices. However, the effect is not immediate, but gradual, as tariffs must first affect prices, and rising prices are only gradually reflected in official statistics.

Globex Mining: Unique business model fits perfectly with the times

For investors who are risk-averse and see gold as a kind of crisis insurance, the business model of Globex Mining could be particularly appealing. The Company has a portfolio of around 250 commodity projects and selects industry partners to develop them further. In return, Globex receives royalties or profit shares. While junior mining companies require regular financing, this step is not necessary for Globex: partners invest in projects and usually handle the exploration. The projects span all critical raw materials, from rare earths to traditional industrial metals like copper, as well as precious metals. Since Globex invests exclusively in the US and Canada, risk factors such as a lack of legal certainty are eliminated. Even in the midst of a trade war, tariffs are unlikely to be a major issue for the raw materials sector: many raw materials are currently not mined in North America at all, or demand is significantly higher than domestic supply. Since self-sufficiency is a top priority due to the current geopolitical situation, industrial buyers are focusing more than ever on the security of supply.** This favors a certain degree of redundancy in raw materials and supply chains – instead of a single supplier from China, industrial companies prefer to diversify their sources.

While companies such as BASF and, above all, Volkswagen are likely to suffer from the EU-US tariff agreement and have recently communicated cautious outlooks, Globex Mining, with its robust project development and licensing model and its focus on stable regions, is uniquely positioned to benefit from the increased demand for safe havens such as gold and a stable supply of raw materials in North America. Globex's share price has been consolidating for six months and is currently hovering around the EUR 1 mark. With around 250 commodity projects and virtually no financing risk, a market capitalization of less than EUR 50 million appears to offer promising prospects. At BASF and Volkswagen, the euphoria of recent months has already faded. There is still no turnaround in sight for German industry.