Uranium Energy, Almonty Industries, Bayer – Rebound after correction

Bayer – Is a turnaround on the way?

After more than 10 years, is the downward spiral at the pharmaceutical and agricultural giant coming to an end, and will the turnaround finally begin? At least Bayer shares have been working on a solid footing since the end of November last year, when they hit a low of EUR 18.37. The stock is currently trading at EUR 27.05, and a jump above the horizontal resistance level at EUR 31.03 would brighten the chart picture even further, with the next price target then at around EUR 40 in the event of a sustained breakthrough.

A slight upward trend is also evident from a fundamental perspective. Bayer has raised its forecast for 2025 and now expects revenue of EUR 46 to 48 billion and adjusted EBITDA of EUR 9.7 to 10.2 billion. According to HSBC analyst Rajesh Kumar, the result is mainly supported by special effects. The decisive factor is the prospect that the burdensome US litigation over glyphosate could ease significantly from 2026 onwards. If Bayer succeeds in achieving a breakthrough with its strategy before the Supreme Court, this will open up new scope for action, such as spin-offs or capital measures that would make the group more flexible again.

There are also signs of growth momentum in the pharmaceuticals business. The promising active ingredient, asundexian, could hit the market as early as the fourth quarter of 2025 and provide much-needed momentum.

Despite the existing risks, analyst Kumar remains optimistic. He is sticking to his "Buy" recommendation and sees upside potential of around 25% with a price target of EUR 32. After years of legal disputes and balance sheet pressure, declining risks, new growth momentum, and a strategic realignment could lay the foundation for a sustained recovery of the share price.

Almonty Industries – Opportunity after the setback

Many investors are still unaware of the importance that tungsten producers will play for the Western world in the future. This strategically extremely important metal is essential for industry as well as for high-tech and defense applications. Due to its rarity and heavy dependence on China, which accounts for over 80% of the market, it is considered a critical raw material that Western countries want to secure strategically.

As Almonty CEO Lewis Black pointed out in his comments on the first quarter, the Company has made significant progress on its strategic projects and is preparing for the next phase of growth. While the Panasqueira mine in Portugal continues to serve as a stable foundation, the flagship Sangdong mine in South Korea is moving into the spotlight.

With the completion of plant construction and secured financing from KfW, production is set to start in the second half of the year. Sangdong is considered one of the largest and highest-grade tungsten projects outside China and, at full capacity, is expected to supply over 80% of global non-Chinese production. With significantly higher ore grades compared to Panasqueira, the project promises robust economics and strategic value.

Almonty has significantly strengthened its financial position, ending the quarter with approximately USD 25 million in cash and securing an additional USD 90 million through a successful Nasdaq IPO. This provides the Company with a solid capital base to support ongoing and future projects. At the same time, an offtake agreement with the US Department of Defense for the supply of tungsten oxide was signed. In addition, former US Under Secretary of State Alan Estevez has joined Almonty's board, bringing expertise in security policy.

CEO Lewis Black emphasizes that Almonty is on the verge of a transformative step with Sangdong. Given the growing global demand for tungsten and the geopolitically important role of critical raw materials, he believes the Company is ideally positioned to create long-term value for shareholders. With a current market capitalization of CAD 1.34 billion, there is still significant potential compared to similar projects.

Uranium Energy – Political tailwind

Donald Trump is increasingly focusing on nuclear energy to make the US more energy independent and competitive. The background to this is the rapidly rising demand for electricity, particularly from AI data centers. Nuclear power provides a reliable, low-CO₂ base load here. Trump also wants to put the US at the forefront of future technologies such as small modular reactors, thereby closing the geopolitical gap with China and Russia. At the same time, the expansion will create jobs and strengthen industry.

One of the beneficiaries of this development is Uranium Energy, one of the leading uranium producers in the US. After a rally in recent weeks, which saw the share price rise by over 185% to USD 10.73 since the beginning of April, analysts at Goldman Sachs even see further upside potential. The price target has been set at USD 13, and the investment rating is "Buy."

The reasons for this are that the US government aims to quadruple US nuclear power capacity by 2050 and establish its own uranium supply chain. Given that the US consumes 29% of the world's uranium supply each year but only produced 700,000 pounds itself in 2024, Goldman Sachs sees Uranium Energy (UEC) in a key position. UEC plans to expand its production to several million pounds and establish itself as a leading US producer.

Analyst Brian Lee emphasizes the domestic position as a clear advantage, especially as uranium prices are likely to rise: Goldman expects a deficit of 20 million pounds in 2025 and as much as 130 million pounds by 2040. In addition, UEC could benefit from government investment, similar to MP Materials, which rose sharply thanks to a USD 400 million commitment from the Pentagon.

Bayer was able to raise its targets and is on the verge of a turnaround. Uranium Energy is benefiting from the US government's program. Almonty Industries plans to start production at its flagship project in the second half of the year.