March 25th, 2026 | 07:10 CET
Tungsten Crisis! "Reuters" Reports Shortage in the US! Almonty Positioned to Benefit, and Analysts Reaffirm Buy Recommendation
Tungsten prices have risen nearly 20% in just one week. The situation surrounding this metal, which is critical not only for ammunition production, continues to worsen. "Reuters" recently reported on noticeably low inventory levels in the US. On "Bloomberg," an expert speaks of an almost unprecedented market development. The biggest beneficiary is Almonty Industries. Analysts see over 50% upside potential. According to their estimates, the P/E ratio for 2027 is around 5. Almonty is expected to produce 267,537 metric tons this year alone. Costs are expected to be USD 266 per MTU. On the Rotterdam stock exchange, the current price is USD 2,800 per MTU.
time to read: 4 minutes
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Author:
Fabian Lorenz
ISIN:
ALMONTY INDUSTRIES INC. | CA0203987072 | TSX: AII , NASDAQ: ALM , ASX: AII
Table of contents:
Author
Fabian Lorenz
For more than twenty years, the Cologne native has been intensively involved with the stock market, both professionally and privately. He is particularly passionate about national and international small and micro caps.
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Is the US Running Out of Tungsten? Price Up Nearly 20% in One Week
The situation in the tungsten market continues to escalate. "Reuters" recently reported that the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine are depleting US stocks of the strategic metal at an ever-increasing rate. Tungsten is not only indispensable for ammunition and other military equipment, but also for the aerospace and electronics industries, as well as mechanical engineering - for example, in high-performance tools, semiconductors, and heat-resistant specialty components. In addition, Chinese export controls are exacerbating the shortage on the global market. Last Friday, up to USD 2,800 was paid per metric ton unit (MTU) - equivalent to 10 kg - of the rare raw material at the Rotterdam trading hub. This was nearly 20% more than a week earlier and roughly 700% more than at the start of 2025.
"Never Seen a Market as Tight as the Current One for Tungsten"
"Bloomberg" also paints a picture of an extremely tight market. Buyers worldwide are searching for alternative sources of supply, while inventories are dwindling and military demand continues to rise. "In my twelve years in the commodities industry, during which I have dealt with many strange and fascinating metals, I have never experienced a market as tight as the current one for tungsten - except perhaps for lithium in 2021," George Heppel, vice president of commodities research at BMO Capital Markets, told "Bloomberg". He continues: "This isn't like lithium, where there was a huge pipeline of projects ready to come online."
"Bloomberg" also notes that the US has not commercially mined tungsten since 2015, making the country structurally vulnerable. It is precisely in this environment that Almonty, as a Western producer, is increasingly coming into focus. Almonty CEO Lewis Black told "Bloomberg" that US authorities had already contacted the company regarding short-term supply availability. Nearly half of South Korea's production is shipped to Pennsylvania for further processing. Regarding price trends, the Almonty CEO emphasized that no one really knows how high the price could rise, as there has been no free market to date. Historically, China subsidized domestic tungsten producers for decades to drive Western competitors out and effectively create a monopoly. This landscape, however, is now beginning to shift, creating new opportunities for non-Chinese producers like Almonty.
Analysts Confirm Price Target of USD 25.80
Against this backdrop, it is not surprising that Cantor Fitzgerald recently confirmed its "Buy" recommendation for Almonty stock. Analysts estimate the fair value at USD 25.80 or CAD 36.00. The stock is currently trading on the NASDAQ at around USD 16. Analysts argue that Almonty, as a China-free tungsten producer, is a rare find and can rise to become an increasingly important strategic supplier to the West in a market with a structural supply deficit. Almonty currently operates a tungsten mine in Portugal, is ramping up what will soon be the largest mine outside of China, and plans to bring a mine in the US state of Montana online later this year.
Analysts view the completion of Phase 1 commissioning of the Sangdong mine in South Korea as the decisive turning point. Almonty is transitioning from a project developer to a producer with massive scaling potential. While the smaller Panasqueira mine in Portugal—which is being expanded—generated revenue of CAD 32.5 million in 2025, revenue is expected to surge to CAD 747.7 million in 2026 with the ramp-up of Sangdong. Analysts expect EBITDA to reach an impressive CAD 488.1 million, translating to an EBITDA margin of over 50%. Tungsten production is projected to jump from 58,000 MTU to 267,537 MTU, while all-in sustaining costs are expected to drop from USD 345 to USD 266 per MTU. This is because the mine in South Korea was built when prices were at USD 300 or USD 400 per MTU, and the company had to make a profit at those levels. Today, as mentioned, prices are above USD 2,500.
In the coming years, Almonty's revenue and profits are expected to continue rising sharply. For 2027, Cantor is already projecting CAD 1.3 billion in revenue and CAD 844.3 million in EBITDA. Net profit is expected to be CAD 832.4 million, and earnings per share CAD 4. The stock is currently trading at around CAD 20, putting the 2027 P/E ratio at 5, according to analyst estimates. This seems anything but expensive.
Starting in 2028, Cantor expects Almonty to reach an annual production of approximately 800,000 metric tons. Additional margin potential could come from a nano-tungsten oxide plant in Korea, as well as from the adjacent molybdenum deposit.
https://youtu.be/yKWEA8oMgKQ?si=85DcJ3tJHg-rlPx4
Conclusion: Valuation Appears Attractive
The tungsten market is undergoing a historic transformation. And Almonty appears to be the big winner. With an expected earnings per share of CAD 4 next year, the stock remains attractively priced. At the same time, there are no signs of a correction in the tungsten price.
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