Top stocks performance check: Plug Power, Nel ASA, Altech Advanced Materials, VW, and BYD

Volkswagen and BYD – E-mobility at the second attempt

The German automotive market is in a state of great uncertainty. While foreign manufacturers are entering the market with a great deal of innovative strength, domestic manufacturers are still clinging to the combustion engine. In the short term, this strategic approach is justified by the sales successes, but it means missing out on the technological advances of the future. As we approach 2035, e-mobility is set to celebrate its triumph. This means it is time to elevate development efforts in this segment to a high level. For shareholders of German automotive companies, this likely means falling profits over the next three years. However, in the long run, a stronger sector could be back at the forefront.

If you believe the current statistics, e-mobility sales will fall by 50 to 70% this year compared to 2023, yet Chinese manufacturers, in particular, are making significant gains in international comparison. Volkswagen and BYD have experienced contrasting fortunes in the current year. VW's sales fell significantly, particularly in the electric vehicle segment. For 2024, global deliveries of VW are expected to decline to around 9 million vehicles; originally, VW had forecast growth of 3%, which has recently been revised sharply. VW's share price has fallen by as much as 15% in the last 12 months, while the DAX has reached new highs. BYD, on the other hand, saw a significant increase in its sales figures, with September sales up an impressive 160% year-on-year. As a result, BYD's share price skyrocketed, rising by as much as 46% in four weeks. Analytically, VW now has a P/E ratio of 3.8 for 2024, while the rapidly growing BYD has a ratio of 18.5. Both investments currently appear promising.

Altech Advanced Materials – A new battery is launched

Developments in the field of electricity storage are of the utmost importance for the energy transition. After all, a country like Germany, which generates a lot of alternative electricity from natural sources, must also be able to compensate for high and low grid utilization rates accordingly using intermediate storage. We have presented the solutions from Altech Advanced Materials in Heidelberg several times. Development is progressing, and the Company is now entering the next round. The first CERENERGY® battery prototype, "BatteryPack ABS60", has been successfully implemented in Dresden. The prototype has been installed in the test laboratory of Altech's joint venture partner, Fraunhofer IKTS, and integrated into a specially developed battery test station. This setup enables continuous daily charge and discharge cycles to evaluate the battery's efficiency, stability, and overall performance under real-world conditions and to provide data for interested customers.

The completed battery unit has already achieved excellent results in extensive physical testing. It demonstrates exceptional efficiency and robust performance across all key metrics. Stress tests, including overcharging and over-discharging, were conducted without any cell failures, proving the durability of the cells. Particularly noteworthy is the battery's excellent thermal stability, a crucial factor in high-capacity energy storage systems. These initial results confirm the integrity of the battery design and its marketability. After the testing series, the focus could now shift to serial production design.

CEO Uwe Ahrens commented: "We are very pleased that the first prototype of the CERENERGY® 60kWh battery is now in operation and delivering very strong results. This confirms our confidence in the sodium chloride all-solid-state battery technology developed by the world-leading Fraunhofer Institute in Germany. The success of this prototype positions Altech at the forefront of advanced battery technology that is already suitable for industrial use." On October 15 at 11:30 a.m., interested investors can watch the Management Board live at the International Investment Forum. Click here to register.

Altech offers promising and highly competitive solutions that will disrupt the energy storage sector. From October 10, the Company will carry out a capital increase at a price of EUR 2.40 in a ratio of 10:1. Investors who want to participate can purchase an initial position in the market at around EUR 3.05, as an oversubscription right has been granted. This provides an elegant entry into the highly dynamic battery sector.

Plug Power and Nel ASA – Hydrogen remains too expensive

In the current environment, nuclear energy is surging ahead internationally, while hydrogen is increasingly falling by the wayside. Politicians have long since abandoned the idea of a comprehensive refueling infrastructure, but they do trust hydrogen technology to cover important special segments. The reason: electrolysis technology is simply still too expensive to be economically viable on a broad scale. In the long term, however, it is expected that economies of scale in production will reduce costs.

The international protagonists Plug Power and Nel ASA are suffering from declining orders and a reluctance to invest. Due to high development costs and difficult refinancing, this is leading to a shrinking supply of liquidity in the companies, which continues to weigh on share prices. Currently, Plug Power and Nel ASA have again approached the previous all-time lows at a dangerous rate of EUR 1.92 and EUR 0.385, respectively. We have reported on this many times and remain on the sidelines as investors. The tragedy surrounding hydrogen will likely continue for some time.

The energy transition is proving to be a difficult undertaking in the current international landscape. Geopolitical conflicts are driving up demand for fossil fuels and undermining the partial successes of decarbonization. However, there are some opportunities for investors at the local level and in innovative approaches. Nevertheless, global diversification is advisable to mitigate sectoral risks.