thyssenkrupp, Golden Cariboo Resources, Intel – Which comeback strategy will pay off?

thyssenkrupp - Upheaval and new beginnings?

thyssenkrupp's Q1 2024/2025 reveals a mixed picture of progress and fragility. Order intake soared 57% to EUR 12.5 billion, driven primarily by large orders from the marine division. However, revenue fell 4% to EUR 7.8 billion due to weak demand in the steel and automotive sectors. The adjusted EBIT of EUR 191 million stands out positively, an effect of the APEX cost-cutting program. The free cash flow improved significantly to EUR -21 million, compared to EUR -531 million in the previous year. Despite a net loss of EUR 51 million, the updated annual cash flow forecast (EUR 0-300 million) is encouraging. Criticism regarding the planned dividend of EUR 0.15 per share, while executives are buying back stock, underscores the Company's ambivalent situation.

The Company is continuing to focus on its core areas. With an order backlog of EUR 16.4 billion, the marine division is to be spun off via an IPO, while steel activities are to be transferred to a joint venture with the EP Group. At the same time, tough cuts are pending: 5,000 jobs are to be cut in the steel division by 2030, and negotiations with IG Metall on site closures are ongoing. In the automotive sector, sales talks are ongoing for the springs and stabilizers divisions. The challenges remain immense: high energy costs, global steel overcapacity, and faltering demand are weighing on the transformation dynamic.

thyssenkrupp wants to become more sustainable. A partnership with Volkswagen for low-CO2 steel and projects for hydrogen production in Oman should generate long-term growth. Bank of America sees potential. A marine spin-off could lift the valuation (target price: EUR 8). The planned direct reduction plant in Duisburg, which will cost EUR 3 billion, also underscores the Company's climate ambitions. However, risks such as US steel tariffs and volatile markets dampen the euphoria. The stock has gained over 50% since the beginning of the year and is currently trading at EUR 5.98.

Golden Cariboo Resources – Positioned for Growth in British Columbia's Gold Belt

Golden Cariboo Resources is focusing its exploration efforts on British Columbia's Cariboo gold belt, a region with a rich mining history. The total land package spans 95,162 hectares and is adjacent to the properties of Osisko Development, which will soon be in production. The Company's flagship property, the Quesnelle Gold Quartz Mine, covers 3,814 hectares and is located on a multi-kilometre gold trend. It includes the "Main zone", the "Halo zone", and the "North Hixon zone". So far, only three drill holes have been drilled in the North Hixon Zone. Historically, around USD 2 million in placer gold was mined at Hixon Creek until 1945.

The most recent drilling in the Halo zone, a discovery from 2024 located approximately 830 meters northwest of the Quesnelle Gold Quartz Mine, highlights the project's potential. Key findings include a 349-meter interval grading 0.31 g/t gold, with higher-grade intervals such as 11.27 meters grading 1.12 g/t also found. These results suggest a mineralized system that extends over a width of 600 meters and a length of 2 km and is open for expansion. CEO Frank Callaghan emphasizes the exceptional size of the zone, with step-out drilling planned to test extensions of several kilometers. With assays still pending from the drill program, upcoming news could make the drill results even more promising than they already are.

To finance its 2025 campaign, Golden Cariboo completed a tranche of a private placement in mid-February, raising CAD 773,915, with a second tranche expected soon. The proceeds will be used for expanded drilling and ground surveys to delineate the resource boundaries. The Company's lean structure, with a management team with a successful mining track record, enables it to efficiently advance exploration. The share is currently trading at CAD 0.145, above the CAD 0.13 issue price of the private placement, which is a positive sign.

Intel – Strategic innovations and market challenges

Intel has not had an easy time and is facing global challenges. Nevertheless, the Company has scored points with innovative products such as the Core Ultra 200V processor series, and its collaboration with Microsoft has shown that it is still in the race. These processors, designed specifically for artificial intelligence (AI), gaming, and content creation, offer improved performance and energy efficiency. At the same time, Intel is setting new standards in the server market with new Xeon processors like Granite Rapids to strengthen its position. Nevertheless, competition from AMD and ARM-based solutions remains strong.

Intel's financial position is strained. In Q4 2024, revenue was USD 14.3 billion, down 7% year-over-year. For Q1 2025, Intel forecasts revenue between USD 11.7 and USD 12.7 billion and a loss of USD 0.27 per share. High restructuring costs and investments in the foundry division remain a burden. The gross margin will fall to 36%, compared to 51% last year. These challenges should be clear to every investor.

Intel's future depends largely on the situation in the global semiconductor market. Rumors of interest from other companies for parts of Intel, such as Broadcom and TSMC, point to a possible split. This is supported by the US government, which emphasizes ensuring independent semiconductor production. At the same time, a joint venture with TSMC carries risks as it could potentially lead to aggressive competition from China. For investors, this means that Intel has long-term potential, but short-term caution is advised. The stock is currently trading at USD 25.13, which is mainly due to the possible takeovers.

In the arena of the global economy, three companies show how differently the future is shaped: thyssenkrupp is bracing itself against structural change with green steel projects and maritime mega contracts, while internal tensions are slowing down its transformation. Golden Cariboo Resources is leveraging historical gold veins and modern exploration techniques to rise to become the next gold producer in the shadow of Osisko. Intel is fighting in the semiconductor war with innovations such as AI chips, while financial holes and competitive pressure are dampening its ambitions.