February 23rd, 2022 | 11:00 CET
TeamViewer, Aspermont, Delivery Hero - Digital turnaround candidates in check
Table of contents:
TeamViewer - Good start into the year
The Corona pandemic has given TeamViewer a real boost. The demand for home office workstations and remote maintenance skyrocketed and the share started to soar. An expensive takeover of Ubimax, which could pay off in the future, and a 5-year sponsorship deal with Manchester United later turned the highflyer from 2020 into a loser in 2021. In addition, there were missed forecasts, so the CFO and the head of marketing left. The CEO stood his ground and admitted mistakes. This year, everything is supposed to be better.
The CEO said most recently in an interview with Boerse Online that he expects sales of EUR 630-650 million. That would at least maintain the 19% growth from 2021. The EBITDA margin should be between 45 and 47% and increase in the future. The CEO is not afraid of a pandemic end either, saying, "More importantly, our business model is taking advantage of global megatrends such as the rapid proliferation of connected devices, digital transformation and location-independent ways of working."
In addition to the fourth-quarter figures, the Company announced a EUR 300 million share buyback program on February 2. Thus, up to 10% of shares could be retired. After the figures, there were buy recommendations from JPMorgan, Warburg and RBC Capital Markets with price targets between EUR 21 and 26. This year, the share gained more than 47% at its peak. The share is currently trading at EUR 13.54. As long as it does not close below EUR 12.29 on a closing price basis, the upward trend remains intact.
Aspermont - Good quarterly figures
Aspermont did not always have a digital business model. The Company started as a publisher that sold its magazines on commodities and generated advertising revenue from ad placements. The Internet forced the Company to transform its business model. This transformation has succeeded by selling subscriptions to its online content and starting to leverage the contacts it has built up over decades for its business purposes. The motto is Anything as a Service (XaaS) for the B2B sector, and so, content creation and marketing is offered to customers.
In addition, there are now online trade fairs, platforms specially tailored to the needs of the respective industry, for example, on sustainability, and in the future also a portal that helps customers collect capital. Even though the FinTech division is only being rolled out this year, you can see from the quarterly figures released on January 27 that the business is growing. Revenue grew 10% YOY to 4.2 million Australian dollars (AUD). In the XaaS business, revenue climbed as much as 18% to AUD 2 million. The gross profit of AUD 2.8 million represents an increase of 25% and shows that the gross margin was also increased to 68%. It is important to remember that Covid has made live trade shows impossible. After the pandemic ends, further revenue will be generated from this area.
In the future, the Company wants to become more present in Asia. To this end, the investment bank SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (SCCM) has been contracted as a business advisor. The bank specializes in high-growth companies in Asia and can support the FinTech sector. SCCM is also subscribing for 250 million stock options at AUD 0.0432 per share. The options expire on September 30 of this year. Since early December, the share has been trapped in a sideways channel between AUD 0.02 and AUD 0.027 and is currently trading at AUD 0.022. The market capitalization is around AUD 54 million and appears cheap.
Delivery Hero - Revenue growing, but not profitable
With the lockdown in the first Corona wave, restaurants had to close. As a result, delivery services became more and more important. If you didn't feel like cooking, you just had a pizza, sushi or similar delivered. One of the beneficiaries was Delivery Hero. The Berlin-based company offers online food ordering and delivery services. It operates in around 50 countries in Europe, the Middle East, North Africa, Asia and North and South America. But the share has fallen sharply since the endemic rumors.
Anyone who assumes that the Company earned a 'golden nose' in the Corona times will be disappointed. Despite ideal conditions, the Company was unable to report profits. A margin of 2% of sales was announced. In the end, the margin was -2.2%. Thus, the forecast was missed by 4.2%, and there is no improvement in sight for 2022 either. Further losses in the millions are expected. Of course, the Company wants to grow and seize market leadership, but now that the restaurants will soon open again without any proof, the market environment is clouding over.
Nevertheless, sales rose 89% in the last quarter. The CEO recently bought EUR 14 million worth of shares himself. The share is trading at EUR 45.64, almost EUR 100 cheaper than at its peak in 2021. The next support is waiting at EUR 38.59. Thus, the market capitalization is still at EUR 11.4 billion. There is no prospect of a quick turnaround to profitability. Many are wondering how the Company could be included in the DAX. Investors should currently wait and see.
Price reductions are not always good entry signals. With Delivery Hero, one should wait and see what the future will bring. TeamViewer looks much better and is well-positioned for the future, even if the sponsorship will cost the Company a lot of money for another 4 years. Aspermont has been growing steadily for many quarters. Old revenue generators such as live trade shows are coming back, and the FinTech enterprise division is getting off the ground. There is still a lot of potential hidden here.
Conflict of interest
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