Strategic Commodities in Focus: Where the Biggest Opportunities Lie – Glencore, Power Metallic Mines, Standard Lithium

Glencore: 110% Rise – Can the Jump in Profits Keep the Rally Going?

Glencore shares were trading at 601.00 GBX (EUR 7.01) on Friday. Since the start of the year, the share price has risen by 46.53%, and over the past year the gain has been as high as 109.84%. As a result, the market capitalisation of the commodities and mining group has risen to around GBP 70.39 billion. Following this sharp rise, the share price is trading just below the high of 621.5 GBX reached in June. Significantly higher commodity prices and strong half-year results are providing a tailwind.

In the first half of 2026, Glencore increased its turnover by 49% year-on-year to USD 174.43 billion. Adjusted EBITDA jumped by 86% to USD 10.12 billion. The bottom line was a profit attributable to shareholders of USD 4.41 billion. In the previous year, the group had posted a loss of USD 655 million. The global trading business performed particularly well. Adjusted EBIT for the marketing division rose by 142% to USD 3.3 billion.

Glencore benefited from higher prices for key commodities as well as from significant fluctuations in the energy, freight and commodities markets. Cash flow from operating activities rose by 158% to USD 8.1 billion. At the same time, net debt fell by around USD 1 billion in the first half of the year. In total, the company has announced dividends and share buy-backs of around USD 3.5 billion for 2026.

However, the picture was mixed in terms of production. The company's own copper output rose by 15% to 397,000 tonnes. By contrast, cobalt production fell by 46%, while a 21% decline was reported for zinc and a 14% drop for hard coal. Nevertheless, management confirmed the annual forecasts for copper, zinc and nickel. By the end of 2028, annualised copper production is expected to reach around 1 million tonnes. This could enable Glencore to benefit more strongly from the long-term growth in demand for electricity grids, data centres and renewable energy.

One risk remains the dispute with the struggling iron ore trader Radiant World. The latter is threatening Glencore with claims totalling more than USD 1.4 billion. Glencore rejects the allegations and states that its own exposure is well below USD 500 million. According to media reports, a provision of around USD 480 million has already been set aside. Nevertheless, the dispute highlights the counterparty risks associated with the Swiss company's extensive trading operations.

From a technical analysis perspective, the picture remains clearly positive. At 601.00 GBX, the share price is above the 50-day moving average (MA) of 547.10 GBX, the 100-day MA of 558.20 GBX and the 200-day MA of 513.80 GBX. From a technical perspective, the share price therefore remains well supported despite the sharp rise. In the short term, the range between 610 and 620 GBX represents the key resistance level. A break above this level could see the rally continue.

Power Metallic Mines on the Verge of a Landmark Milestone

The geopolitical reorganisation of global supply chains is forcing Western industrialised nations to build up strategic reserves of critical metals. Copper and nickel, in particular, are indispensable for ongoing electrification, which underpins long-term demand. Against this backdrop, the exploration company Power Metallic Mines has positioned itself as a future key player in the supply of raw materials with its 330 km² Nisk project in Québec, Canada. A joint venture in Saudi Arabia's Jabal Sayid Belt further diversifies the portfolio.

In addition to its geopolitically secure location, the core Canadian project offers an enormous infrastructural advantage thanks to its direct connection to a Hydro-Québec substation. Operationally, the Canadian company is currently focusing on the high-grade Lion Zone within the site. Recent drilling results, such as those from hole 26-116, demonstrate the geological quality with 36.42 m at 2.83% copper equivalent (CuEq). This interval contains a high-grade core of 6.00 m with a spectacular 12.38% CuEq. In addition to copper, the polymetallic system also contains sought-after battery metals such as nickel, platinum, palladium and cobalt, which significantly enhances the project's economic appeal. Renowned industry figures such as Robert Friedland and Gina Rinehart share this view and have already invested in the company, which in turn underpins the long-term potential of the mineral deposits there.

To accelerate the operational transition from pure exploration to concrete project development, the company recently appointed the experienced mining engineer Christopher Beal as Vice-President of Operations. The financial basis for the next steps is solidly secured by a capital raising of CAD 28.2 million completed in June 2026. Renowned commodities investor Eric Sprott took this opportunity to increase his holdings by 1.6 million shares at CAD 1.25 per share. These funds will now finance the first combined resource estimate for the Lion and Nisk zones, which is due to be published soon.

This forthcoming data release will form the basis for an initial preliminary economic assessment (PEA), which will, for the first time, provide an economic quantification of the discoveries made to date. In parallel, five active drilling rigs continue to advance exploration to expand the deposit's extent. At the current share price of around CAD 1.53 (EUR 0.93), the stock offers considerable upside potential relative to the analyst target price of CAD 3.00 (EUR 1.87) set by GBC Research. Should the upcoming resource estimate fully account for the high-grade drilling hits of recent months, the share is likely to be on the verge of a sustained market re-rating.

Standard Lithium: LG Deal Secured – So Why Is the Share Price Still Down Nearly 50%?

Standard Lithium shares were trading at USD 2.40 on Friday, yet since the start of the year the share has lost 46.50%, while the decline over the past 12 months stands at 15.55%. The Canadian lithium developer's market capitalisation is approximately CAD 818.09 million. Despite significant progress on the South-West Arkansas project, the stock market remains sceptical. Even a new long-term supply contract with LG Energy Solution has so far failed to trigger a sustained turnaround.

On August 31, Smackover Lithium, the joint venture between Standard Lithium and Equinor, announced a binding offtake agreement with LG Energy Solution. The South Korean battery manufacturer intends to purchase 8,000 tonnes of battery-grade lithium carbonate annually for 10 years following the start of commercial production. This is a take-or-pay contract. LG is therefore obliged to pay for the agreed quantity, even if it is not taken up in full. The specific prices remain confidential, but are intended to support the planned project financing.

The contract complements an equally significant agreement with the commodities trader Trafigura. This means that a total of 16,000 tonnes of the planned annual production has been contractually allocated. The first phase of the project is designed for a capacity of 22,500 tonnes of lithium carbonate per year. The partners aim to secure around 80% of this production. Approximately 90% of the targeted offtake volume has now been secured. Standard Lithium holds a 55% stake in the joint venture and remains the operator, while Equinor owns the remaining 45%.

Progress has also been made on the regulatory front. The US Government's environmental assessment concluded that no significant environmental impacts are expected. This was a prerequisite for the US Department of Energy's USD 225 million in funding, which had already been pledged for 2025. In addition, three export credit agencies have signalled interest in project financing totalling more than USD 1 billion. However, these are not yet definitively committed loans.

As at June 30, Standard Lithium had cash and cash equivalents of USD 137.3 million and had no traditional credit facilities or long-term loans. A net loss of USD 5.79 million was incurred in the first half of 2026. As the company is not yet producing lithium commercially and is not generating any corresponding revenue, it remains reliant on existing liquidity and new financing until production commences. The final investment decision is expected to be made before the end of 2026. Construction could then begin, while the first commercial production is scheduled for 2029.

From a technical analysis perspective, the share price remains under pressure. On the Canadian TSXV, it is trading at around CAD 3.32, which is below the 20-day moving average of CAD 3.40 and the 50-day moving average of CAD 3.38. The gap is even more pronounced compared to the 100-day moving average of CAD 4.27 and the 200-day moving average of CAD 5.16. Only a steady rise above the short-term moving averages would improve the picture. While the LG contract reduces the future sales risk, it does not eliminate financing, construction or lithium price risks.

The diversified commodities giant Glencore is benefiting operationally from high prices and a strong trading business, but is facing a legal dispute worth billions. The promising explorer Power Metallic Mines is set to publish a landmark first resource estimate, backed by a strong cash position and high-grade drilling results. Despite a new long-term offtake agreement with LG, the share price of lithium developer Standard Lithium remains under pressure due to ongoing financing and market risks.