MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS for megatrend stocks: Rheinmetall, BioNTech, First Hydrogen

First Hydrogen benefits from Canada's pioneering role

"Pink hydrogen" is emerging as one of the hottest topics in the future of energy supply. By coupling electrolysers with nuclear power plants – especially with new small modular reactors (SMRs) – hydrogen can be produced continuously, independently of weather conditions, and CO₂-free. This transforms nuclear power from a one-dimensional electricity supplier into a multi-talented player. Pink hydrogen is particularly attractive for energy-intensive industries such as steel, chemicals, and cement, as well as remote regions that can become self-sufficient by combining SMRs and electrolysers. It also opens up the possibility for countries with nuclear power to reduce their energy imports, such as gas, or perhaps even become hydrogen exporters.

A global race to build the first small modular reactor has been underway for some time. And Canada currently appears to be in the lead. The country's goal is to become the first G7 country with an operational SMR. To achieve this goal, the government has announced that the Darlington New Nuclear Project in Ontario will be among the first projects to receive preferential treatment under Canada's new Major Projects Office. The first of four planned SMRs to be built in Darlington is expected to provide enough energy to power 300,000 homes. The first reactor is scheduled to go into operation as early as the end of 2029.

Monday's announcement was a real bombshell for First Hydrogen. The hydrogen specialist, also based in Canada, aims to take a leading role in the development of "pink hydrogen." To this end, the Company founded its subsidiary First Nuclear Corp. in March this year and entered into a research partnership with the University of Alberta. The goal is to utilize energy generated by SMRs for hydrogen electrolysis.

After entering the "pink hydrogen" sector, First Hydrogen's share price shot up to EUR 0.81 in June. It is now trading below EUR 0.30 again. The latest announcement could give the topic and thus the share price a boost again.

Rheinmetall: On land, at sea, in the air and in space

As with First Hydrogen, Rheinmetall also made a real splash. Germany's largest defense contractor has agreed with the Lürssen Group on the key terms for the acquisition of Naval Vessels Lürssen (NVL), the naval division of the long-established Lürssen shipyard. Subject to approval by the antitrust authorities, the acquisition is expected to be completed in early 2026. Pricing details have not been disclosed.

With this acquisition, Rheinmetall is expanding its portfolio in the field of naval shipbuilding and aims to become a "cross-domain system house" – meaning a supplier that is relevant on land, water, in the air, and in space. NVL generated revenue of around EUR 1 billion in 2024 with approximately 2,100 employees. The Company operates four shipyards in northern Germany (Peene-Werft, Blohm+Voss, Norderwerft, Neue Jadewerft) and also has international locations. Rheinmetall expects that combining NVL's expertise with its existing system and component capabilities – in areas such as electronics, sensor technology, platforms and effectors – will generate synergies that will strengthen Germany's and Europe's position in maritime defense.

Most analysts welcome the takeover, as it closes a strategic gap for Rheinmetall and rounds off its profile as a European defense giant. Jefferies, for example, points out that Rheinmetall is tapping into considerable growth potential by entering the naval shipbuilding market. The analysts recommend buying the stock and view its fair value at EUR 2,225. JPMorgan also has this price target, with analysts also viewing the transaction positively. Nevertheless, they warn that the integration of a complex shipbuilding division with long project cycles is likely to be challenging. From Warburg Research's perspective, the transaction opens up new market opportunities, but margins in the naval sector are traditionally lower than in the land sector. Industry observers also view the deal as a sign that the German defense market is continuing to consolidate. This is positive, as it could improve competitiveness in international comparison.

BioNTech: Troubles in the US

BioNTech faced a major setback last Friday – unlike Rheinmetall and First Hydrogen, however, it was a negative development. The US government, under Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., announced plans to discontinue or cut funding programs for the research and development of new mRNA vaccines. This affects projects targeting COVID-19, influenza, and avian flu, totaling around USD 500 million in funding.

The announcement immediately caused concern in the scientific and pharmaceutical community. The funding was necessary not only for current vaccines, but also for future innovations, such as vaccines with broader efficacy and adaptations to new variants. Without this government-backed support, research projects could be delayed or discontinued altogether.

Analysts and observers view the decision as a potential setback for BioNTech's long-term plans in the vaccine segment. Some see a risk that the Company will have to slow down its development pipeline, especially in areas that are not immediately commercially viable. On the other hand, some voices believe BioNTech could respond, for example, by focusing on markets outside the US or through alternative financing (EU subsidies, partnerships).

Overall, the short-term effect is predicted to be negative. In the long term, much depends on how strongly BioNTech can adapt its research strategy and how the political framework develops.

BioNTech shares reacted on Friday with a decline of around 7%. This brings them back to the lower end of the sideways channel between EUR 80 and EUR 100 that has formed since March.

First Hydrogen is benefiting from Canada's leading position in SMRs. This should give the stock a boost again. In contrast, BioNTech shares are simply unable to break out of their sideways movement. The US is the most critical market for the industry, and under the current administration, the framework conditions are anything but reliable. In contrast, Rheinmetall shares are approaching the EUR 2,000 mark. If the expected major orders from the German government finally materialize after the takeover, the share price could quickly rise even higher.