New Tariff Drama – How Novo Nordisk, Vidac Pharma, and BioNTech are using AI and oncology to counter protectionism

Novo Nordisk – Expansion is underway, the figures are good, but investors are unsettled

Novo Nordisk is resolutely pushing ahead with its US presence. Following the acquisition of three manufacturing facilities from its partner Catalent at the end of 2024, one of which is in the US, the Danish pharmaceutical giant is investing around USD 4.1 billion in a new complex in Clayton, North Carolina. The facility will double the site's footprint and create 1,000 new jobs. Production of injectable preparations is to be ramped up here by 2029. A total of just under USD 7 billion is being invested in US capacity and quality assurance. The aim is to become less dependent on imports and to meet the enormous demand for diabetes and obesity drugs such as Ozempic and Wegovy locally, also as a safeguard against potential trade barriers.

The operating figures for the first half of 2025 continue to show strength. Revenue rose by 16%, and operating profit by as much as 25%. The obesity drug business in particular grew strongly, up 56%. However, the mood is dampened by Novo Nordisk's significant reduction in its annual forecast. Instead of 13-21%, it now expects revenue growth of only 8-14%. The reasons for this are tougher competition, slower than planned market development and, above all, ongoing pressure from low-cost generic products, known as compounders, in the US. This development even prompted investors to file a class action lawsuit accusing the Company of concealing risks.

Despite the short-term setback, the long-term market remains huge. The pipeline gives cause for hope. Promising candidates such as the obesity drug Amycretin are entering the decisive Phase 3 trial. A new CEO will also take the helm of the Company on August 7. Mike Doustdar, a Novo veteran since 1992, is taking over the helm from Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen. He faces the task of regaining lost investor confidence and sharpening the strategy to meet the challenges ahead. Historically, Novo Nordisk has weathered similar turbulence, most recently in 2016/2017, and emerged stronger. Whether it will succeed again will be Doustdar's first major test. The share is currently trading at EUR 40.82.

Vidac Pharma – Scientific focus meets growth momentum

Vidac Pharma does not yet sell any drugs and is therefore not currently affected by US tariffs. The Company can devote itself entirely to its novel approach to cancer therapy, which reverses the Warburg effect. Cancer cells use this mechanism for their growth by metabolizing glucose inefficiently. Vidac's active ingredients, such as VDA-1102 and VDA-1275, aim to specifically interrupt this process. This not only restores natural cell death but also makes tumors more susceptible to other therapies. VDA-1275 in particular showed strong synergies with chemotherapeutic agents in preclinical studies, significantly increasing their efficacy in liver cancer. The pipeline focuses on skin and liver cancer, with promising clinical data.

Strategically, the Company has set an important course. The appointment of Dr. Eyal Breitbart as Chief Technology Officer (CTO) brings over 20 years of experience in all aspects of drug development, from research to production, to the team. His expertise is expected to accelerate the scaling of the pipeline. At the same time, Vidac is preparing to list on a larger German stock exchange. This planned upgrade is clearly aimed at increasing international visibility and opening up access to broader capital markets for the next growth phase.

The combination of scientific potential and operational steps is attractive to investors. Analysts like those at Sphene Capital recognize the value creation potential of the pipeline, which is protected by comprehensive patents. The promising clinical data, particularly for VDA-1102 in skin cancer indications such as actinic keratosis or cutaneous lymphomas and its use in pediatric brain tumors, as well as the strategic focus, underscore the long-term prospects. External recognition, such as the EU STEP Seal, highlights the quality of the work. These factors form a solid basis for further development. These are the reasons why Sphene Capital's price target is EUR 4.30, even though the share is currently trading at EUR 0.53.

BioNTech – Acquisition and partnership for oncology

The Mainz-based biotech company BioNTech, known for its pandemic vaccine, is consistently focusing on cancer research, using the Kyber supercomputer and AI to advance its research and development. It recently strengthened its oncology pipeline with two strategic moves. In addition to its US partner Pfizer, it now has another billion-dollar partnership with US pharmaceutical giant Bristol Myers Squibb for the antibody candidate BNT327. There is also the planned acquisition of Tübingen-based mRNA specialist CureVac. Both steps are intended to accelerate the development of cross-tumor therapies. The focus is on personalized mRNA approaches and bispecific antibodies, which are being tested in several advanced studies.

Despite rising revenues, the Company remains in the red. In the second quarter, the net decline was EUR 387 million, an improvement over the previous year. The gross margin of 79% shows strength, but high research spending is weighing on earnings. With EUR 16 billion in cash and cash equivalents, the Company's coffers are full, enabling further investments and acquisitions. For 2025, the Company confirms its forecast of EUR 1.7 to 2.2 billion in revenue, with a focus on oncology.

The transformation from vaccine manufacturer to cancer research specialist is underway, but not without risks. Regulatory hurdles and long development times in oncology require patience. Analysts are mostly optimistic about the stock, but also see challenges. Price targets range from USD 115 to USD 151. The decisive factor will be whether the pipeline delivers marketable products in the coming years. For investors, it remains a waiting game. There should be no tariff issues in the US due to the Company's US partners. The share price has been trending sideways for some time and is currently available for EUR 95.70.

Protectionist pressure is forcing the pharmaceutical industry to make strategic adjustments, with oncology considered a key growth driver. Novo Nordisk is countering tariff risks and pressure from imitators with massive investments in US production, but has to contend with disappointed investors and a lowered forecast. Vidac Pharma, which is not currently affected by tariffs, is focusing on promising oncology drugs to reverse the Warburg effect and is seeking a listing on a major German stock exchange for greater visibility. BioNTech is pushing ahead with its transformation into an oncology specialist through billion-dollar partnerships and the planned acquisition of CureVac, backed by AI and a full war chest. The Company is currently still posting losses and has long development cycles ahead of it.