Close menu

July 19th, 2023 | 08:25 CEST

Nel share is unstoppable, but money is being made at BYD and Saturn Oil + Gas

  • Mining
  • Oil
  • Electromobility
  • Energy
Photo credits: Nel ASA

Yesterday's quarterly figures from Nel were well received by the stock market. As a result, the share price reacted with a jump of over 8%. The hydrogen pureplay increased sales by 159% to NOK 475 million. The electrolyser business grew even more strongly. However, the net loss also rose significantly to NOK 342 million, but investors seemed to overlook this fact yesterday. The situation is different at BYD. The Company made a profit of billions in the first half of the year and continues to expand vigorously. The price war with Tesla does not seem to be leaving any impact. Oil producer Saturn Oil & Gas is also earning splendidly. In the first quarter, EBITDA increased by an impressive 332%. The Company aims to be debt-free by 2025. Will a substantial dividend come then?

time to read: 3 minutes | Author: Fabian Lorenz
ISIN: NEL ASA NK-_20 | NO0010081235 , BYD CO. LTD H YC 1 | CNE100000296 , Saturn Oil + Gas Inc. | CA80412L8832

Table of contents:

    John Jeffrey, CEO, Saturn Oil + Gas Inc.
    "[...] The Oxbow Asset now delivers a substantial free cash flow stream to internally fund our impactful drilling and workover programs. [...]" John Jeffrey, CEO, Saturn Oil + Gas Inc.

    Full interview


    Saturn Oil & Gas debt-free in 2025: Is the monster dividend coming?

    Due to targeted acquisitions, Saturn Oil & Gas has risen to become a serious Canadian oil producer in just a few years. The Company is now also playing with the big players on the stock exchange and is thus becoming more interesting for institutional investors. Just recently, for example, it was uplisted from the TSX Venture to the Toronto Stock Exchange ("TSX"). The numbers are impressive: in the first quarter of 2023, adjusted EBITDA climbed 332% to CAD 70.4 million. Free cash flow was CAD 30.2 million. Both are record figures for the Company but are expected to increase further. Full-year EBITDA of CAD 475 million is forecast for 2023. Due to the high profitability, the debt used for the acquisitions can be reduced quickly. By the end of the year, debt is expected to be reduced to about CAD 350 million. By the end of 2025, the Canadians then want to be debt-free. The sales price of the oil needed to achieve this has been secured. Will the cash flow then be used to pay a dividend? Based on the current share price of CAD 2.28, the potential dividend would likely be substantial. After all, the 2023 EBITDA forecast significantly exceeds the current market capitalization of CAD 323 million. And in the coming years, earnings should be able to increase further.

    The analysts at Canaccord Genuity recommend buying the shares of Saturn Oil & Gas. They say Saturn is trading at a 50% discount compared to other mid-sized oil producers. Therefore, a re-rating of the Company is only a matter of time. The analysts' price target is CAD 6.50.

    BYD: No sign of a price war

    BYD is also earning brilliantly at the moment. The Company seems to be coping brilliantly with the price war with Tesla & Co. in the electric car sector. According to preliminary figures, the Chinese will likely have achieved a net profit of 10.5 to 11.7 billion yuan in the first half of the year. This would be an increase of 192% to 225% YOY. During the first six months of 2023, BYD has sold 641,350 electric vehicles. Most vehicles are still sold in China, where they have overtaken market leader Volkswagen. UBS analysts reacted by confirming their buy recommendation, setting a target price of HKD 320. Currently, the BYD share is listed at HKD 265.

    In the future, BYD also wants to sell more vehicles outside China. To this end, the group is investing massively along the entire value chain - from silicon production to new plants. Plans for a new site in India have just been announced. It is also starting sales in Chile, Ecuador and Morocco.

    Nel: Stock market focused on sales growth

    Nel ASA has not yet turned a profit. The Danish company posted an EBITDA of NOK -138 million and a net loss of NOK 342 million in the second quarter. For the entire first half, EBITDA amounted to NOK -258 million (H1 2022: NOK -350 million) and net loss NOK -535 million (H1 2022: NOK -191 million). On the stock exchange, however, the red numbers do not seem to bother anyone and instead, growth was celebrated yesterday. Sales in Q2 2023 increased by 159% to NOK 475 million. In this context, the Electrolysers business segment recorded a disproportionate increase in sales of 202%. Order intake was NOK 428 million, up 81% YOY. At the end of Q2, the order book stood at NOK 2,964 million, up 106% compared to Q2 2022. At the end of the quarter, Nel still had a solid NOK 4.12 billion in cash.

    "We continue to see a positive development due to increased production volumes and revenues from contracts with significantly improved terms," says Håkon Volldal, CEO of Nel. "Electrolyser projects are getting bigger and order intake will therefore fluctuate from quarter to quarter. However, overall demand is increasing, and customers are increasingly turning to suppliers with available capacity and a track record of delivering reliable, high-quality equipment."

    Nel remains a hot potato. While sales growth is finally picking up, investors are overlooking the high losses. However, this may change again. In contrast, Saturn Oil & Gas is earning brilliantly - despite a relatively low oil price. If part of the cash flow after debt repayment is used to pay a dividend, then the dividend yield should be pleasing when looking at the current share price. At BYD, things are going well at the moment. The price war is not leaving any traces, and investments are being made worldwide. A global market leader could emerge here.

    Conflict of interest

    Pursuant to §85 of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG), we point out that Apaton Finance GmbH as well as partners, authors or employees of Apaton Finance GmbH (hereinafter referred to as "Relevant Persons") may hold shares or other financial instruments of the aforementioned companies in the future or may bet on rising or falling prices and thus a conflict of interest may arise in the future. The Relevant Persons reserve the right to buy or sell shares or other financial instruments of the Company at any time (hereinafter each a "Transaction"). Transactions may, under certain circumstances, influence the respective price of the shares or other financial instruments of the Company.

    In addition, Apaton Finance GmbH is active in the context of the preparation and publication of the reporting in paid contractual relationships.

    For this reason, there is a concrete conflict of interest.

    The above information on existing conflicts of interest applies to all types and forms of publication used by Apaton Finance GmbH for publications on companies.

    Risk notice

    Apaton Finance GmbH offers editors, agencies and companies the opportunity to publish commentaries, interviews, summaries, news and the like on These contents are exclusively for the information of the readers and do not represent any call to action or recommendations, neither explicitly nor implicitly they are to be understood as an assurance of possible price developments. The contents do not replace individual expert investment advice and do not constitute an offer to sell the discussed share(s) or other financial instruments, nor an invitation to buy or sell such.

    The content is expressly not a financial analysis, but a journalistic or advertising text. Readers or users who make investment decisions or carry out transactions on the basis of the information provided here do so entirely at their own risk. No contractual relationship is established between Apaton Finance GmbH and its readers or the users of its offers, as our information only refers to the company and not to the investment decision of the reader or user.

    The acquisition of financial instruments involves high risks, which can lead to the total loss of the invested capital. The information published by Apaton Finance GmbH and its authors is based on careful research. Nevertheless, no liability is assumed for financial losses or a content-related guarantee for the topicality, correctness, appropriateness and completeness of the content provided here. Please also note our Terms of use.

    Der Autor

    Fabian Lorenz

    For more than twenty years, the Cologne native has been intensively involved with the stock market, both professionally and privately. He is particularly passionate about national and international small and micro caps.

    About the author

    Related comments:

    Commented by André Will-Laudien on July 17th, 2024 | 09:00 CEST

    Elon Musk finances Donald Trump - Now a strategic move with Rheinmetall, Aixtron, Almonty Industries, and Varta

    • Mining
    • Tungsten
    • renewableenergies
    • Defense
    • hightech

    An assassination attempt with consequences. Tech billionaire Elon Musk has expressed his deepest solidarity with presidential candidate Trump following the assassination attempt. The Tesla CEO will henceforth financially support the Republican presidential candidate's campaign massively. Musk intends to provide around USD 45 million per month, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The latest election polls now put the Republican clearly ahead of Biden. This could lead to a strongly US-oriented policy in the spirit of "America First". Above all, Trump aims to halt immigration, invest in the ailing infrastructure, massively arm the national security, and revitalize "Old America". Everything suggests that the blockbuster sectors of high-tech and armaments will continue thriving for now. The focus is clearly on strategic raw materials due to the efforts to reduce foreign dependencies. Where are the opportunities for shareholders?


    Commented by Armin Schulz on July 17th, 2024 | 07:45 CEST

    Nel ASA, dynaCERT, Plug Power - Hydrogen: Multiplier or downfall?

    • Hydrogen
    • greenhydrogen
    • renewableenergies
    • Electromobility

    Hydrogen technology could not only revolutionize the future of energy but also offer significant opportunities for investors. Hydrogen stocks are currently in the spotlight and promise potentially high returns. Companies specializing in the production, storage, and distribution of hydrogen could be among the big winners of the energy transition. Many of these companies are still in the early stages of development, which means high growth opportunities but also entails corresponding risks. The question is: Can you get multipliers in your portfolio with hydrogen companies, or is there a risk of total loss? We look at three companies aiming to make money with hydrogen.


    Commented by Fabian Lorenz on July 17th, 2024 | 07:30 CEST

    Siemens Energy share down 50%? Now time to buy Rheinmetall, Bayer, and Saturn Oil + Gas?

    • Mining
    • Oil
    • Defense
    • Pharma
    • renewableenergies

    Can the Siemens Energy share halve in value? At least, that is what the analysts at Bernstein think, who have set a price target of EUR 15. After a strong rally, the focus is now back on the Company's problem areas, such as India. Rheinmetall, on the other hand, is recommended as a "Buy". Can the armaments group thus end its sideways movement? In an initial study, analysts see around 50% upside potential for Saturn Oil & Gas. The oil company intends to significantly increase its free cash flow in the coming years but is considered undervalued compared to its peers. Some analysts see even more potential. Analysts are cautious about Bayer shares. In addition to the well-known legal disputes, operational issues are also a burden.