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March 1st, 2023 | 13:55 CET

Nel ASA, TUI and Alpina Holdings: Shares with up to 100% price potential?

  • Investments
  • RealEstate
Photo credits: TUI AG

The reporting season is in full swing. The 2022 figures are an opportunity for investors to review their investment decisions and, if necessary, reposition themselves for 2023. For one of our three companies, analysts see up to 100% upside potential but also a "sell". The figures from Nel ASA were awaited with great excitement. Since last year, hydrogen companies have been good for a surprise every time they open their books - unfortunately, more of a negative one lately. Nel has also seen its fair share of good and bad news, and the first analysts have spoken out. At TUI, analyst comments are rather negative. Analyst opinion: Better than feared, but not good enough. In contrast, Alpina Holdings offers a favorable valuation and a dividend yield of 3%. Yet 2022 was relatively quiet for the real estate company from Singapore. In the future, margins and earnings should rise again.

time to read: 4 minutes | Author: Fabian Lorenz
ISIN: NEL ASA NK-_20 | NO0010081235 , TUI AG NA O.N. | DE000TUAG000 , ALPINA HOLDINGS LIMITED | SGXE21011833

Table of contents:

    Alpina Holdings: Entices with favorable valuation and attractive dividend

    The speciality stock Alpina Holdings is probably known to only a few investors in this country. The real estate company has been listed on the Singapore Exchange since 2022 and is now also listed on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. The business model is anything but new: the Company has been active as a real estate and construction services company in Singapore for 17 years and is thus active in one of the world's most attractive real estate markets. The business model is diversified around real estate and includes integrated building services (IBS), mechanical and electrical (M&E) engineering services and alterations and additions (A&A) for public and private sector projects.

    In fiscal 2022, Alpina generated SGD 49.89 million in revenue. Net profit was SGD 2.04 million. For classification, the Company is currently valued at around SGD 32 million. That takes into account a cash balance of SGD 11.66 million. Since Alpina distributes half its profits, the dividend yield is at least 3%. 2022 was more of a transition year after numerous projects were completed in 2021 following the Corona break. The Company also had to adjust to labor shortages and higher labor costs in 2022.

    Chairman and CEO Low Siong Yong commented, "Our three business segments remained profitable in 2022 and generated positive cash flow from our operations. Based on our business model as an integrated facilities specialist, we continue to focus on operational execution, improving our operating margins and securing new contracts in our markets. In 2022, the Group received the Certified Facilities Management Company certification from the Singapore International Facility Management Association, which puts us in a better position to win new projects in the integrated facilities management and IBS sectors." In the coming years, earnings and dividends are likely to pick up.

    Nel: Sales and orders up, earnings down

    Nel ASA has also published figures for 2022. In conclusion, sales and order intake are upbeat, but earnings are downbeat. The Norwegian company increased sales from NOK 798 million to NOK 994 million. This was more than analysts had expected. However, the loss also increased significantly. EBITDA rose from NOK -475 million to NOK -780 million. The net loss of NOK -1,171 million (previous year: -1,667 million) again exceeded sales. After all, the Norwegians had a cash balance of NOK 3,149 million at the end of 2022. The order intake gives hope for better development in the future. The order backlog more than doubled to NOK 2.61 billion in 2022.

    The share hardly reacted to these mixed figures. It continues to trade at around NOK 15.70. Initial analyst reactions were also less than spectacular. RBC confirmed the rating "Outperform" and the price target of NOK 23. The strong sales growth is unfortunately accompanied by high losses. Jefferies also continues to see price potential in the Nel share and recommends it with a "Buy" rating and a price target of NOK 20. For Goldman Sachs, the price target of also NOK 20 is only a "Neutral". The records in the order backlog and incoming orders give hope for the future.

    The booking situation at TUI is currently good. Source: TUI AG

    TUI: Better than feared, but not good enough

    After TUI's latest figures (Q1 2022/23), only AlsterResearch reacted positively. The price target was raised slightly from EUR 3.40 to EUR 3.50. Thus, the analysts see almost 100% price potential. Revenue rose 58% year-on-year to EUR 3.75 billion, thus minimally exceeding consensus expectations. The analysts point out that the tourism group has returned to its pre-Corona pandemic level. If this level could be maintained, consensus sales estimates could also be exceeded by 4% to 5% for the full year. The EBIT loss of EUR -159 million had been expected as Q1 is typically seasonally weak for TUI. For FY22/23, TUI reiterated its guidance of a significant increase in adjusted EBIT, and in the conference call, management expressed satisfaction with market expectations of EUR 940m for adjusted EBIT.

    Other analysts do not share the positive assessment. For UBS, the TUI share is only a "sell" with a price target of 99 pence. Although EBIT was better than feared, the consensus estimate was still missed. Although Barclays also sees positive booking trends and thus upside potential in consensus estimates, it confirmed its "Underweight" rating with a price target of 122 pence. Deutsche Bank considers TUI's outlook positive, but there are also risks. Accordingly, the price target was increased only slightly from EUR 1.80 to EUR 1.90, and the recommendation "Hold" was confirmed. For Bernstein Research, the TUI share is only a "market perform" after the figures. The price target is EUR 2.

    The restrained reactions to the current figures should provide relief for Nel shareholders. Now the focus will be on new orders again. Nevertheless, the hope for more growth with a decreasing loss reigns at Nel. The Company must deliver this soon. Alpina Holdings is an interesting speciality stock that is clearly profitable even in a transition year, pays a decent dividend, and has potential for the future. TUI has put the Corona pandemic behind it. However, positive operating development is heavily dependent on the economy.

    Conflict of interest

    Pursuant to §85 of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG), we point out that Apaton Finance GmbH as well as partners, authors or employees of Apaton Finance GmbH (hereinafter referred to as "Relevant Persons") may hold shares or other financial instruments of the aforementioned companies in the future or may bet on rising or falling prices and thus a conflict of interest may arise in the future. The Relevant Persons reserve the right to buy or sell shares or other financial instruments of the Company at any time (hereinafter each a "Transaction"). Transactions may, under certain circumstances, influence the respective price of the shares or other financial instruments of the Company.

    In addition, Apaton Finance GmbH is active in the context of the preparation and publication of the reporting in paid contractual relationships.

    For this reason, there is a concrete conflict of interest.

    The above information on existing conflicts of interest applies to all types and forms of publication used by Apaton Finance GmbH for publications on companies.

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    Der Autor

    Fabian Lorenz

    For more than twenty years, the Cologne native has been intensively involved with the stock market, both professionally and privately. He is particularly passionate about national and international small and micro caps.

    About the author

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