Nel ASA, Almonty Industries, Tencent – Merz and Trump as trend accelerators

Almonty Industries – On the verge of a breakthrough

Last Friday, the Bundestag voted to relax the debt brake. This means that Germany can invest EUR 500 billion in roads and schools over the next few years, while there is no cap on defense. In theory, the future German government can accumulate debt in defense, civil defense, intelligence, or cybersecurity without a cap. The brake now only applies to a portion of the investment; anything beyond that can be financed with loans.

Armaments at any cost applies not only to Germany but to all of Europe. But the question arises: "Where do the defense companies get the raw materials they need?" China still has a quasi-monopoly on rare earths and the essential tungsten, and around 85% of the material needed for armor and high-performance weapons is produced in the Middle Kingdom. The second largest producer, by the way, is Russia.

A solution is emerging with Almonty Industries, at least for tungsten. The Canadian company already owns a producing tungsten mine in Portugal, and with the Los Santos mine in Spain, it will rise to become the European market leader. But Almonty Industries is forging the hottest iron in South Korea. With the Sangdong mine, Almonty will break the dominance and cover around 30% of tungsten production outside China and Russia. Production is scheduled to start as early as the first half of 2025.

In addition to tungsten, the mine has additional upside potential due to a molybdenum deposit. In their brand new analysis, the analysts at Hallgarten issued a "Buy" recommendation with a 12-month price target of CAD 3.82. Almonty's shares are currently trading at CAD 2.30, which results in a price potential of over 66%.

Nel ASA – First signs of life

The patient has awakened from the coma, but it is still uncertain whether it will be allowed to leave the intensive care unit in the next few days, especially when looking at the chart of the Norwegian hydrogen specialist more closely. Although the Nel ASA shares were able to stop the acceleration of the downward movement at an intermediate low of USD 0.18 and have since shown a performance of almost 60% to currently USD 0.28, at least a further push above the horizontal resistance area at USD 0.41 is needed for at least a short-term turnaround. Incidentally, the 200-day moving average is a distant USD 0.90.

The price was boosted by the publication of an order from the subsidiary Nel Hydrogen US for a containerized PEM electrolyser with an output of 2.5 MW. This is to be installed in the Aberdeen Hydrogen Hub project.

A recent press release introduced a new project in Scotland initiated by BP and Aberdeen City Council. The project aims to develop a large-scale green hydrogen production, storage, and distribution facility fully powered by renewable energy sources.

"We are thrilled that Hydrasun has chosen NEL for this significant project," said NEL CEO Håkon Volldal in the Company's announcement. "We look forward to working together and providing Hydrasun with fast and reliable electrolyser equipment," Volldal added.

Tencent – Figures above expectations

The battle for global dominance of in-house AI models is in full swing. In China alone, giants such as Alibaba, Baidu, and Tencent are fighting for a place in the sun. Tencent is pursuing a hybrid strategy. On the one hand, the Chinese tech giant relies on its own AI developments and, on the other, on the technology of its competitors. The in-house chatbot Yuanbao is based on Tencent's Hunyuan model and DeepSeek's R1.

Last week, Tencent reported outstanding figures for the fourth quarter that exceeded analyst consensus. Thanks to strong growth in the gaming and advertising business, profits jumped by around 90%. Revenues in the final quarter were CNY 172.4 billion, equivalent to USD 23.9 billion, an increase of 11% over the same period last year. Analysts had expected only CNY 168.9 billion.

Profit exploded to CNY 51.3 billion or USD 7.1 billion, an increase of 90% over the final quarter of 2023.

Despite the strong figures, caution is advised with regard to Tencent's share price after the recent rally. After forming a double top at HKD 545, a sell-off followed in recent days, pushing Tencent's shares below the uptrend established in January 2025. Both MACD and RSI gave a "Sell" signal. The next significant support level is the high from 2024 at HKD 482.40.

Tencent's figures exceeded analysts' expectations, but profit-taking nevertheless set in. Nel ASA sent a sign of life and has won an order from Scotland. Almonty Industries is on the verge of a breakthrough with the start of production at its tungsten mine in South Korea.