Is there a credit crunch coming? Alarm signals in the SME sector: Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank, Globex Mining

Deutsche Bank: Rating agencies remain optimistic

Although business is still going well for major German banks such as Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank, the risks are also increasing here. Deutsche Bank, for example, has taken additional precautions to mitigate macroeconomic risks. Back in April, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel warned of a possible mild recession in Germany that could hit banks and lead to credit defaults among corporate customers. However, Deutsche Bank appears to be well equipped: its asset quality and liquidity are considered robust. Rating agency Fitch emphasizes that the bank's risk appetite, credit quality, and liquidity have remained solid despite uncertainties and raised its short-term rating for Deutsche Bank from "F2" to "F1."

Caution with yesterday's statistics – Commerzbank with risk provisions

Nevertheless, the industry remains cautious. As news agency Reuters recently reported, banks in the eurozone have tightened their lending guidelines for loans to companies. Commerzbank is also keeping a close eye on the situation at smaller companies. Although the default rate remained unchanged at a low 1.0%, which shows that customers' payment difficulties are not yet having a dramatic impact on the bank's balance sheet, Commerzbank is placing great emphasis on risk discipline and is underlining its commitment to being a solid partner for its customers even in difficult times.

The fact that statistics from recent months are often not a good indicator of existing trends is shown by recent media reports, for example, from Deutsche Wirtschaftsnachrichten. According to these reports, half of German companies expect their customers to file for insolvency – a fatal warning sign. In the first half of the year, the number of insolvencies has already reached a ten-year record high according to Creditreform – 11,900 companies slid into bankruptcy. If the number continues to rise, this could also dampen business for the big banks and, in the next step, ensure that loans flow more sparingly. Companies with a good relationship with their house bank are likely to have an advantage. Investors would be wise to anticipate the potential crisis in the banking sector and focus on precious metals. According to Business Insider, gold is increasingly establishing itself as a safe haven. Global demand for the precious metal rose by 13% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025.

Gold price rises – Globex Mining offers access to 250 commodity projects

The commodity conglomerate Globex Mining is benefiting significantly from this development. Globex Mining is a Canadian commodity company with a diversified project portfolio across North America comprising over 250 properties. Around half of these are precious metal projects. Unlike traditional explorers, Globex does not finance exploration itself, but leases or sells projects to partner companies in return for equity interests and license fees. This project generator model enables ongoing revenue in the form of option payments and license fees with limited risk. The Company is debt-free and invests surpluses in, among other things, share buybacks. This stabilizes the share price and benefits loyal shareholders.

What is particularly interesting about Globex Mining is the large number of raw material projects it has in its portfolio. The fact that the Company offers critical metals such as copper, rare earths and lithium in addition to its comprehensive raw material portfolio makes its shares a core investment. Although all of Globex's projects are at an early stage, this is anything but a disadvantage: Especially in the early stages, experienced mining professionals can leverage properties with relatively little capital. This is particularly true when new mineral deposits are identified or there are strong indications of profitable production in the future. The large number of around 250 projects in Globex's portfolio reduces risk, and the focus on projects in North America fits perfectly with the current tense geopolitical situation. This is currently offset by a valuation of CAD 74.6 million.

Core investment with catch-up potential?

While shares of major banks like Commerzbank (+74%) and Deutsche Bank (+48.5%) have priced in virtually no risks over the past six months, Globex Mining, whose shares have gained 9.5% in the same period, may have significant catch-up potential. Just this week, Globex announced the receipt of cash payments from several project partners, including the USD 60 billion conglomerate Agnico Eagle. Globex Mining represents an attractive core investment in the commodities sector: The team is well-connected within the industry and has been operating its business model for decades. The diversified mix of precious metals and critical raw materials is compelling, and the high number of projects effectively reduces risk for investors.