October 31st, 2022 | 11:21 CET
Hydrogen shockwave and the laughing third party: NEL, dynaCERT, Mercedes-Benz
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"[...] We can convert buses and trucks to be completely climate neutral. In doing so, we take a modular and incremental approach. That means we can work with all current vehicle types and respond to new technology and innovation [...]" Dirk Graszt, CEO, Clean Logistics SE
At home in Southern Germany, the passionate stock exchange expert has been accompanying the capital markets for about twenty years. With a soft spot for smaller companies, he is constantly on the lookout for exciting investment stories.
NEL: More orders, lower "course"
ITM Power's share price fell by around a third. Production problems and other delays in the operating business were the reasons. As a result, shares like those of the Norwegian full-service hydrogen supplier NEL also fell. But are the problems at ITM Power capable of triggering a hydrogen shock wave within the entire industry? As the news agency Bloomberg reports, an analyst at Citibank believes that the British company's problems are specific to ITM Power.
This conviction has also prevailed on the market - the NEL chart no longer looks like panic. In the medium term, however, the price trend shows that investors are still skeptical. Those who interpret charts accurately can even identify a flat downtrend at NEL. Since even a 107% increase in orders on hand is not enough to make the stock look better, there is currently no need for action at NEL. The share is one of the most popular hydrogen stocks, and market anomalies are, therefore, rather unlikely.
dynaCERT: Encouragement from the trade association - hope for shareholders?
The situation is quite different for dynaCERT. The Canadian diesel engine conversion kit specialists have been through a lot in recent years. Shareholders have experienced depressing lean periods and dynamic upturns. In the meantime, the Company wants to be on the right track operationally. Most recently, dynaCERT announced that it had been invited to the Canadian Utility Fleet Forum (CUFF) trade show, which took place last week. dynaCERT has been focusing on heavy industrial and mining machinery for some time. The thinking behind this is that the conversion kits, designed to add small amounts of hydrogen to diesel to reduce fuel consumption and emissions, are particularly worthwhile here. The CUFF trade show is organized by the Canadian Utility Fleet Council (CUFC), which as a trade association, influences policy and advocates uniform standards. In the past, CUFC has also sent representatives to ISO meetings.
Although dynaCERT's business model has yet to get its horsepower on the road, the encouragement for the Company from the renowned trade association gives cause for hope. Especially in the area of large and expensive machines, retrofitting engines with dynaCERT's technology should make sense. The share price surged significantly in late summer and has since entered a period of moderate consolidation. If the Company's appearances at trade shows bear fruit, the stock could be on the verge of a revaluation. In contrast to stocks like NEL, the dynaCERT share is anything but the focus of many investors. Some investors have probably already thrown in the towel. The oversold stock could still become very exciting for speculative investors!
Mercedes-Benz: Batteries instead of fuel cells
The hydrogen crash of last week has largely bypassed the Mercedes-Benz share. The reason: The Swabians have long since decided to rely on batteries for passenger cars. With the Mercedes F-Cell, the Company had already launched a small series of hydrogen SUVs, but the project was quickly abandoned. The encouraging quarterly figures from last week also showed that this step was not a mistake. In the third quarter, Mercedes doubled its profit to EUR 4 billion. The chip crisis hardly affected the Company at all. The focus on high-priced cars also had a positive effect on Mercedes-Benz's figures. The share is still in a downward trend on a one-year horizon, but beyond the EUR 60 mark, the value could pick up speed again. Nevertheless, the value remains relatively "sedate".
As a private investor, you have all the options if you want to invest in hydrogen. The Mercedes-Benz share is not a good idea - the hydrogen scene is more likely to be found at Daimler Trucks. NEL, on the other hand, has total hydrogen exposure. The Norwegian company is progressing operationally but is increasingly facing competition from the established industry. dynaCERT is more speculative. Conversion kits for diesel engines sound good, but they must finally be brought to market. Although the Company believes it is on the right track, the market still has significant doubts. If dynaCERT proves right in the end, it could mean a reassessment.
Conflict of interest
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