Hydrogen from setback to comeback: Plug Power, First Hydrogen, Nel ASA – Who will emerge victorious from the transformation?

Plug Power – Momentum from contracts and politics

Plug Power's CFO, Paul Middleton, recently sent a strong signal. He purchased over USD 650,000 worth of the Company's shares at market price. Since this show of confidence, the fuel cell specialist's share price has more than doubled. The latest positive development has now been fueled by an important contract extension. Plug Power secured the supply of liquid hydrogen from a major US industrial gas company through 2030. This deal is expected to deliver immediate cost reductions and efficiency gains across the network, which should strengthen cash flow and operational flexibility.

Another key driver for the upturn came as a surprise from Washington. A planned tax bill will extend lucrative tax credits for the production of clean hydrogen until early 2028, two years longer than originally planned. This longer planning horizon is a boon for capital-intensive companies like Plug Power. The green hydrogen business is still in its infancy and has hardly been profitable to date. The extended incentives could be decisive in realizing projects such as the planned large-scale plant in Texas.

Plug Power is consistently expanding its capacities. The Company currently operates several plants in the US with a daily production of 40 tons of liquid hydrogen. Plug Power plans to commission over 40 new customer sites this year and is developing additional production facilities. This expansion is necessary to meet growing demand from its own application business, which currently has over 275 locations. While the Company continues to post losses and focus on cost-cutting programs, the secure supply provided by the new long-term contract, along with the improved political framework, offers important support for its continued growth. The entire industry is currently experiencing a noticeable tailwind, as is Plug Power's share price, which currently stands at USD 1.84.

First Hydrogen - Expands hydrogen ecosystem

First Hydrogen is advancing its integrated concept for emission-free energy. The core pillars are light commercial vehicles with a fuel cell drive, offering a range of over 600 km, a tailor-made refuelling station infrastructure, and the "Hydrogen-as-a-Service" model. Customers receive vehicles, refuelling, and maintenance from a single source. To scale green hydrogen economically, the Company is now focusing on small modular reactors (SMRs). These are designed to produce hydrogen locally in remote regions of Canada and Europe, regardless of weather conditions and in a cost-efficient manner.

On July 28, First Hydrogen expanded its collaboration with Professor Muhammad Taha Manzoor of the University of Alberta, which began in June. The focus is now more on SMR design optimization, in particular advanced fuel reactor materials and molten salt cooling technologies. This material enables greater safety, including self-shutdown in the event of overheating, increased energy yield efficiency, and fuel flexibility. The research explicitly takes into account the rapidly growing power demand of AI data centers, whose consumption exceeds that of conventional plants by a factor of ten.

The explosive energy hunger of digitalization, especially through AI, underscores the value of stable baseload technologies. Analyses predict a 160% increase in data center electricity demand by 2030, requiring investments of over USD 5 trillion. SMRs offer decisive advantages here. They are modularly scalable, deliver CO₂-free electricity around the clock, and reduce dependencies on grid expansion. First Hydrogen is already evaluating specific sites in Canada (Quebec region) and Europe to meet the growing demand for clean energy with SMR-based hydrogen. After gaining over 100% since the end of May, the share price is currently consolidating at CAD 0.71.

Nel ASA – A bumpy quarter

The latest figures leave little room for optimism. Nel recorded a 48% drop in revenue to just NOK 174 million in the second quarter, which corresponds to around EUR 14.6 million. The alkaline business was particularly hard hit, while the PEM division remained stable. The operating loss (EBITDA) was NOK -86 million, which was lower than expected but still clearly in the red. Even more alarming is the 74% slump in order intake, with the order backlog shrinking by 40%. This led to short-term profit-taking after the announcement.

Despite these weaknesses, Nel still has a solid financial base. At the end of June, liquidity stood at a healthy NOK 1.93 billion, approximately EUR 162 million. This strong cash position gives the Company breathing space to continue operations without immediate capital measures. Management continues to emphasize strict cost control and is focusing on strategic priorities, such as the further development of PEM and alkaline electrolysis technologies, as well as the expansion of partnerships. Work on the next-generation equipment is proceeding according to plan.

Competition in Europe is currently causing headwinds. While Nel is struggling, its British competitor, ITM Power, for example, is proving to be more cost-efficient and has recently secured orders. Positive signals from Swedish fuel cell specialist PowerCell are also boosting the general mood for hydrogen stocks. For Nel, the decisive factor will be whether the expected momentum from EU and US subsidy programs actually materializes and translates into concrete, large-scale orders. The technological basis and financial cushion still provide time to turn the tide. The stock is currently trading at NOK 2.806.

Despite setbacks, the hydrogen industry is showing real momentum for transformation, driven by pragmatic solutions and government incentives. Plug Power is benefiting significantly from extended US tax incentives and strategic supply agreements that bring cost reductions and planning security. First Hydrogen is advancing its integrated ecosystem of fuel cell vehicles and modular hydrogen generators (SMRs) to address the growing demand for stable, clean energy. Nel ASA is struggling with a weak quarter and a decline in orders, but thanks to sufficient liquidity, it still has time to turn its operations around.