Fed turnaround and Chinese restrictions: How Deutsche Bank, Globex Mining, and Barrick Mining are positioned

Deutsche Bank – Strong figures, but challenges remain

Falling US key interest rates are acting as an economic stimulus package for global banks. For Deutsche Bank, this means significantly increased demand for loans, particularly in investment and corporate banking. US companies can access capital more cheaply, which is driving up lending volumes. At the same time, lower interest rates are stimulating the US economy and promoting international trade and financial transactions – the bank's traditional areas of strength. These impulses could deliver noticeable earnings contributions.

The operating figures underscore the bank's robust condition. Pre-tax profit doubled in the first half of 2025 to EUR 5.3 billion, driven by double-digit growth in all four business divisions. The core capital ratio (CET1) of 14.2% and convincing stress test results demonstrate a resilient balance sheet. In addition, adjusted costs are at the previous year's level, while efficiency measures continue to bear fruit.

Despite its strength, challenges remain. Lower interest rates are compressing interest margins in traditional deposit business and wealth management. In addition, volatility on bond markets is increasing, which poses more complex challenges for risk management. Long-term profitability will depend on how well the bank manages these conflicting forces and adapts its business models to the new environment. The share is currently available for EUR 30.53.

Globex Mining – A portfolio of opportunities

Globex Mining is fully committed to an external project development model. Instead of building mines itself, the Company acquires promising raw material properties at an early stage, advances them, and then passes them on to partners through option agreements. These partners undertake to explore the properties and ultimately bring them into production. In return, Globex receives advance payments, equity interests, and long-term royalties - all without having to bear the exploration costs. If a partner fails to meet their obligations, the project reverts to Globex. With a portfolio of over 250 projects, ranging from gold and lithium to rare earths, this model offers unique diversification and protects against the volatility of individual commodities.

China's export restrictions on critical commodities are increasing the need for sourcing opportunities from secure jurisdictions. In early September, Globex secured complete control of the Blackcliff Gold Zone in Quebec through a clever acquisition for only CAD 142,000. This project is located in an established gold district and offers significant upside potential due to historical resources and limited exploration. In August, there was already positive news from the Bald Hill antimony project, where the partner reported further high-grade drilling results.

Management was also strengthened in August with David Christie as the new President and COO. This was a strategically smart move, as Christie brings decades of experience in geology, investment banking, and corporate development to the table. This is the ideal profile for optimally monetizing the numerous projects in the portfolio. For a debt-free company with such an asset pool, the task now is to translate this strength into consistent value creation. At a current share price of CAD 1.38, the Company has a market capitalization of just CAD 77.4 million, which is considered favorable given its more than 250 projects.

Barrick Mining - Gold shines in a low interest rate environment

Falling US key interest rates are creating remarkable momentum for gold. When the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, fixed-income investments become less attractive. Gold, which does not yield interest, benefits from this environment and is in greater demand as a safe investment and hedge against inflation. In addition, a slide in interest rates often weakens the USD, which further supports the price of gold. For a miner like Barrick Mining, this creates a double benefit: higher sales revenues in USD combined with largely stable costs in local currencies - ultimately resulting in improved margins.

Barrick is taking advantage of this tailwind. Production rose sharply in the second quarter, with gold up 5% and copper up as much as 34%. Key mines such as Nevada Gold Mines and Pueblo Viejo significantly increased their output. This operational success coincided with record gold prices, driving adjusted earnings per share to USD 0.47, up 71% from the previous quarter. In addition, efficient cost reductions in the mines are further supporting margins. The robust performance fueled the operating cash flow of USD 2.54 billion in the first half of the year and enabled a substantial dividend increase.

Despite this strength, challenges remain. The forced withdrawal from Mali resulted in a one-time loss of over USD 1 billion. Barrick is focusing on profitable core mines, pushing ahead with projects such as Reko Diq, and exploring the sale of non-strategic holdings. With a debt-free balance sheet, a growing copper division, and the ability to benefit from any rise in the price of gold, the Company is well-positioned for the future. The long-term project pipeline ensures growth beyond the current price cycles. Barrick's share price has risen significantly in recent days, buoyed by the price of gold, and is currently trading at USD 28.35.

The global financial turnaround and the commodity shortage offer opportunities that every company is exploiting in different ways. Deutsche Bank is scoring with robust earnings in corporate banking, but is struggling with narrower margins as interest rates fall. Globex Mining impresses with its clever portfolio model, which benefits from demand for commodities. Barrick Mining shines with large profits thanks to high gold prices and operational strength.