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January 11th, 2024 | 07:00 CET

Evotec is in the analyst check, Tui with Wanderlust, and another 100% gain for Manuka Resources?

  • Mining
  • Vanadium
  • Gold
  • Silver
  • travel
  • Biotechnology
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The Evotec stock is currently not for the faint-hearted. After the resignation of the long-serving board member caused uncertainty, the biotech company was able to reassure investors with a milestone payment. Analysts are speaking out and expressing their opinions, and a real "bull" is among them. And what about Manuka Resources? At the beginning of December, news about an exciting project for battery metals caused a jump in the share price. Is it now worth getting in after the consolidation? The Tui share has also recently consolidated after a 50% gain within a few weeks. Analysts' price targets for the tourism company's shares vary widely. Hold or buy?

time to read: 4 minutes | Author: Fabian Lorenz
ISIN: TUI AG NA O.N. | DE000TUAG505 , Manuka Resources Limited | AU0000090292 , EVOTEC SE INH O.N. | DE0005664809

Table of contents:

    Manuka Resources: Share price jump the starting signal for sustainable development?

    A share price increase of over 100% within a few days! Even though we pointed out the favorable valuation of Manuka Resources in November, this fireworks display was not to be expected. At the beginning of December, the shares of the Australian commodities company suddenly shot up from AUD 0.040 to AUD 0.10. The share has since consolidated back to AUD 0.070, but it shows that investors with deep pockets have the Company on their radar and are buying in on positive news. The valuation remains favourable, with a market capitalization of around EUR 25 million. Manuka combines cash flow from an operating mine and exploration opportunities like a few small commodity companies.

    So what was the reason for the jump in the share price at the beginning of December? While gold production at Mt Boppy, Manuka Resources' Australian flagship mine, is being ramped up and enabled the first positive Group cash flow in September, there is surprising movement in the exciting South Taranaki Bight project in New Zealand. The recently appointed New Zealand Minister for Resources and Regional Development, Hon. Shane Jones, spoke positively about deep sea mining in a speech in Parliament. According to the Minister, deep sea mining is part of New Zealand's regional economy. He spoke out in favour of changing environmental protection authority laws if necessary in order to offer investors security. This concerns Manuka's Taranaki VTM iron sands project. It is located 22 to 36 km off the coast of New Zealand. The mining license is in place and the environmental process is nearing completion. The chances are increasing that Manuka could actually begin exploration in the future.

    The potential of Taranaki is huge: the sand there contains vanadium, titanium and magnetite. These are all metals that are urgently needed on the global market. The resource estimate already stands at a total of 3.8 billion tons. According to Manuka, the project is said to have the lowest CO2 footprint of similar projects worldwide. Pending approval, Manuka is concentrating on increasing gold production at Mt Boppy and developing a silver mine. This alone justifies higher share prices.

    Evotec: Analysts weigh in

    The Evotec share is currently not for the faint-hearted. Last week, the announced resignation of the long-standing CEO caused the share price to slide from EUR 21 to EUR 17. Then, a few days ago, however, something positive: Evotec received a milestone payment of USD 25 million. This payment was due within the partnership with Bristol Myers Squibb, which runs until 2031. The fresh funds from the British pharmaceutical company will be used to drive forward research into active substances in the field of neurological diseases. If successful, Evotec can expect milestone payments of up to a total of USD 4 billion.

    Several analysts have now also reacted to this news flow. RBC confirmed the target price of EUR 18.60 for the Evotec share. The milestone payment will significantly contribute to the biotech company's ability to achieve its annual forecast. Nevertheless, the share is currently only a "Sector Perform" for the analysts. No changes to the assessments are expected before the figures for 2023 and the outlook for 2024 are announced on April 24.

    Deutsche Bank is objectively assessing the resignation of CEO Werner Lanthaler. For analysts, this development came as no great surprise. The reason was also not to be found in the operational or strategic development but rather on a personal level. Therefore, the "Hold" rating was reaffirmed with a target price of EUR 20. Yesterday, the Evotec share lost more than 3% and slipped back below EUR 18.

    Warburg Research sees significant upside potential. The analysts are among the Evotec bulls with a target price of EUR 29. Although the loss of Werner Lanthaler is causing uncertainty, it should not be overestimated. Some time ago, the Company started to diversify its management board and distribute responsibilities in order to reduce the risk of excessive dependence on the long-standing CEO. Warburg, therefore, continues to rate the share as a "Buy".

    Tui: Hold or buy?

    There is no sign of a consumer downturn for Tui. The tourism company is entering 2024 with a high early booking rate and a corresponding sense of confidence. However, the Tui share is weakening. Consolidation has been underway since the beginning of December, but this is not entirely surprising. After all, the stock had previously risen from EUR 4.60 to over EUR 7.20 within a few weeks.
    Operationally, however, things are going well. For example, the German desire to travel appears to be unbroken. At the end of December 2023, early bookings for the coming summer were up 25% on the previous year. In addition to high-quality travel offers, Tui Germany is also systematically expanding the low-price segment. The Sueno brand is being strengthened with more affordable offers, and the portfolio in Bulgaria and Tunisia is being expanded. Package tours to these destinations are significantly more affordable than popular destinations like Majorca, Greece or Turkey.

    **Deutsche Bank also believes that Tui is on the right track and rates the shares of the tourism group as a "Buy". For Bernstein Research, Tui is currently fairly valued and, therefore, only a "Market Perform". The target price is EUR 6.80 at the current share price.

    Like many others, all three stocks discussed consolidated at the beginning of the year. Manuka has hopefully broken out of the sideways movement. The gold and silver projects alone certainly justify a higher share price. If the project in New Zealand gains momentum, a complete revaluation seems inevitable. At Evotec, the departure of the long-standing CEO may well cause uncertainty. In the long term, the focus will return to operational development. At Tui, it will be interesting to see whether the desire to travel can escape the economic worries in the further course of the year.

    Conflict of interest

    Pursuant to §85 of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG), we point out that Apaton Finance GmbH as well as partners, authors or employees of Apaton Finance GmbH (hereinafter referred to as "Relevant Persons") may hold shares or other financial instruments of the aforementioned companies in the future or may bet on rising or falling prices and thus a conflict of interest may arise in the future. The Relevant Persons reserve the right to buy or sell shares or other financial instruments of the Company at any time (hereinafter each a "Transaction"). Transactions may, under certain circumstances, influence the respective price of the shares or other financial instruments of the Company.

    In addition, Apaton Finance GmbH is active in the context of the preparation and publication of the reporting in paid contractual relationships.

    For this reason, there is a concrete conflict of interest.

    The above information on existing conflicts of interest applies to all types and forms of publication used by Apaton Finance GmbH for publications on companies.

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    Der Autor

    Fabian Lorenz

    For more than twenty years, the Cologne native has been intensively involved with the stock market, both professionally and privately. He is particularly passionate about national and international small and micro caps.

    About the author

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