August 30th, 2022 | 12:35 CEST
Do not miss the turnaround: BioNTech, MorphoSys, Tocvan Ventures, TUI - shares on the move!
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"[...] Our projects are at the initial, high reward exploration stage. [...]" Humphrey Hale, CEO, Managing Geologist, Carnavale Resources Ltd.
Born in Munich, he first studied economics and graduated in business administration at the Ludwig-Maximilians-University in 1995. As he was involved with the stock market at a very early stage, he now has more than 30 years of experience in the capital markets.
TUI - The summer is now in the books
The travel summer of 2022 certainly has a special position compared to the last decades. The tourism market was almost able to regain pre-Corona sales from 2019, but many market observers consider this a situational boom. On the one hand, there is the loss of 2 travel years, which encouraged catching up, and on the other hand, a never-ending war, which can probably only be faded out under palm trees.
Unfortunately, the tour operators did not cover themselves with glory with the expected rush. Due to a lack of staff, service delivery was inadequate for many travelers and even a nightmare for some. Last-minute cancellations and overbookings made the travel experience stressful. That is not an advertisement for a follow-up booking.
Skepticism is therefore warranted when it comes to TUI's outlook, as sales volumes are not expected to collapse in the 2023 season, but the main problem for the tourism industry will be pricing. After all, purchase prices have exploded, and the question is whether a package tour can be made 25-40% more expensive so easily in the fragile economic environment. Operationally, therefore, there is a threat of renewed losses in 2023, even though TUI would like to return to operational profitability as early as the fall of 2022. Nevertheless, the debt remains high for the time being, and the repayment times are not yet given. With critical observation, TUI remains a pure casino stock for the time being. Observe!
Tocvan Ventures - Good prospects in Mexico
Investors at Tocvan Ventures are also patiently waiting for real progress. There has now been some in terms of exploration. With two significant gold projects in Sonora, Mexico, the budding resource company from Canada reported viable drill results from their first 1,382-meter program. Grades ranged from 0.4 to 12 grams per tonne, but the overall evaluation returned very mixed results. At least the formation indicates nearby mineralization on the Pilar property. The sifted results suggest a low sulfidation epithermal system occurring in andesite rocks.
At the moment, it is possible to continue working calmly because the gold price is currently doing anything but what one would expect in an inflation environment. Under strong daily fluctuations, it is bobbing along in the lower area of its two-year trading zone between USD 1,650 and 2,050. The research experts at Goldman Sachs had recently identified a price target of USD 2,500.
For Tocvan Ventures, this would be an opportunity because they are opportunistically focused on acquiring undervalued, historic properties. The more unattractive the precious metal price is, the cheaper the purchase price becomes. So now is the time to buy up and wait patiently. Tocvan has only about 36 million shares outstanding, so there is still plenty of room to manoeuvre. The good hand of the experienced management can be relied upon, and the Mexican jurisdiction could not offer a better environment. With further interesting acquisitions, the future resource could become very interesting for a major promoter. In our opinion, the Tocvan story is just beginning and will have much to offer gold and silver fans.
MorphoSys versus BioNTech - Who can bounce back from the low?
That was a short excursion to the top. The share of the Munich-based biotech company MorphoSys gained a full 40% between June and mid-August to over EUR 24, but now it is heading down again. Investors wonder when a "bottom" will finally be marked on the chart for this promising stock.
Unfortunately, the last quarterly figures also quickly fizzled out, as analysts had expected higher figures for both sales and operating loss. On a positive note, demand for the blood cancer drug Monjuvi increased again after a difficult first quarter, as Group revenues climbed by more than 50% YOY to EUR 59 million in the past quarter. The operating loss shrank by almost a quarter to EUR 55 million, but increased research and development costs continued to weigh. Since the summer of 2021, the share price has tripled and is 88% away from its all-time high of EUR 148. On top of that, there was a sales revision: Net product sales with Monjuvi are now expected to be USD 90 to 110 million in 2022, after USD 110 to 135 million previously. The antibody specialist continues to make good progress in its research pipeline. Nevertheless, investors are beginning to wonder whether the costly Constellation acquisition will eventually bear fruit.
Meanwhile, the industry partner BioNTech from Mainz is doing somewhat better. Although the share price has lost more than half its value over 12 months, it still trades between EUR 115 and EUR 175. At the Group's headquarters, the new Omicron vaccine, which has been submitted to the EMA for approval, is expected to generate good sales from the fall. Whether vaccination readiness is high or not should not be the Mainz-based company's problem because, "fortunately", the German Ministry of Health has already pre-ordered millions of doses. However, whether this will push BioNTech through the roof again in the fall is questionable because Moderna will receive a large share of the orders. According to recent surveys, however, the willingness to vaccinate is low.
The markets are a cause for concern, as they have been under constant fire for several weeks. It affects all stocks across the board, and the trick now is proper timing and fundamental selection. Tocvan Ventures is no different and is buying opportunistically in Mexico.
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