October 24th, 2022 | 13:19 CEST
Daimler Truck, First Hydrogen, Plug Power - Transportation industry in upheaval: Which shares will profit?
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"[...] Why should a modular electrolyzer cost more than a motorcycle? [...]" Sebastian-Justus Schmidt, CEO and Founder, Enapter AG
Daimler Truck - Partnership with Gehring Technologies
For a long time, Daimler Truck believed that e-trucks were the future. Meanwhile, the Company is taking a two-track approach and planning trucks with hydrogen fuel cells in the coming years. It is easy to see why when you look at recent tests of the eActros 300 semitrailer truck, unveiled at the recent IAA Transportation show in Hanover, Germany. The e-truck crossed the Arlberg Pass in Austria, which has a total distance of 111km. In the process, 180 kWh of energy was recovered. In the end, the batteries still had 40% power. Do you want to charge your truck again for hours after 200km?
This example shows that it depends on the application area and the respective task and that the drive technology should be selected accordingly. On October 18, the Group announced a strategic partnership with Gehring Technologies. The aim is to optimize the prototyping of electric motors and production processes. This applies to both the truck and bus divisions. In the bus sector, the main aim is to boost the coach business in the US and increase market share from around 5% to 20%.
In Germany, 75 Mercedes e-Citaro G with FC range extenders were recently sold to Verkehrsbetriebe Rhein-Neckar-Verkehr. These are to be delivered in stages until 2027. The share has now tested the EUR 23 area three times and bounced back upwards each time. However, it has been unable to break through the upper resistance and is currently trapped in a sideways phase. One share certificate currently costs EUR 25.39. Of 8 analysts, 7 regard the share as a buy. DZ Bank has upgraded the stock to Hold and issued a price target of EUR 30.
First Hydrogen - Vans get road approval
The Canadian company First Hydrogen began developing hydrogen-powered commercial vehicles using the best-of approach. The Company brought together Ballard Power, a leading manufacturer of fuel cells, and AVL Powertrain UK, among the best in product design and a MAN body, to develop a hydrogen van at record speed. Taking a holistic approach, First Hydrogen is also developing hydrogen refueling stations and plans to produce green hydrogen itself in the future. The Company thus covers the entire value chain and can provide turnkey solutions to its customers.
On October 12, a milestone was reached. The Vehicle Certification Agency granted the two light commercial vehicles road approval for the UK. That means the test vehicles can be put through their paces by customers from January 2023. Demand from fleet operators is high. A total of 13 companies from the transport industry will have the vehicles in use for 24 months. The main advantage over electric vehicles is the short refueling time, which takes only a few minutes and allows the vehicle to cover up to 600km. In addition to Canada and the UK, the Company plans to enter the European and US regions. Due to the road approval in the UK, this project should be implemented quickly.
According to forecasts by Allied Research, the global market for light commercial vehicles is expected to grow to USD 786.5 billion by 2030. The recent announcement by the European Parliament's Committee on Transport and Tourism that the hydrogen refueling network will be much more tightly knit is also a tailwind for First Hydrogen. Those interested in reading more details on the Company's current state are referred to researchanalyst.com. The share, which had its high for the year at CAD 5.30 at the end of August, recently had to give up some ground but jumped back up after the news of the road approval. Currently, the stock is trading at CAD 3.72 and should next test resistance at CAD 4.35. The next support is at CAD 3.42.
Plug Power - Good news fizzles out
Plug Power is North America's leading hydrogen solutions provider and stands to benefit from the USD 375 billion climate package. But that is pie in the sky. On October 14, the Company was forced to admit that its 2022 sales forecast would not be met. Now revenues are expected to be 5-10% below target. Due to supply chain issues, revenues have not slipped away, but projects will not be ready until next year. This news was poison for the stock, and investors dumped their shares.
Although two positive announcements were made the following week, the share price remained under pressure. On October 19, the joint venture with Olin Corporation was made public. Together, a hydrogen plant with a capacity of 15t per day will be built in Louisiana. It is expected to produce 1,000t of liquid hydrogen per day by 2028. On the same day, the Company received a follow-on order from FreezPak Logistics, which ordered fuel cells for 9 additional locations. In total, Plug Power will supply nearly 400 forklifts and associated refueling infrastructure and hydrogen storage.
Sunday marks the end of the Paris Motor Show, where Hyvia, the joint venture with Renault, will unveil its Master Van H2-Tech and other prototypes and new products. More positive prospects for shareholders are needed to end the share price plunge, especially since the upward trend has recently been broken. The share is currently trading at USD 16.49. The next support is at USD 14.75; however, the larger support is found at USD 13.90. The pure hydrogen stocks remain volatile.
The end of internal combustion engines is a done deal. In the transport industry, it is becoming apparent that two technologies, electricity and hydrogen, will ultimately share the field depending on the application area. Daimler Truck has reacted to this and will be able to offer hydrogen as an alternative to electric drive for trucks and buses from 2028. First Hydrogen is already further ahead and is fully committed to hydrogen. With road approval, customers can test the vans, and the Company can generate orders in this way. Plug Power is the biggest player in the hydrogen market, but here, too, missteps like forecast cuts are not forgiven. After the break of the upward trend, one should wait and see here.
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