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July 7th, 2022 | 14:19 CEST

Casino shares! Opportunities at Alibaba and Kleos Space, sell-off at Uniper and TeamViewer

  • Space
  • Investments
  • ecommerce
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No one would have thought that a warlike conflict in Eastern Europe could mutate into a medium-term threat to Western prosperity. It can! The dependence on fossil energy is still far too strong in the European economies to manage without regular supplies from the East. As a result, since the end of February, the markets have been extremely nervous, as seen from the volatility indices, which yesterday were close to 30. The interpretation is: to expect about 30% volatility in the stock market within the next 12 months. Nobody would mind if it would swing exceptionally upward. Below are a few sparkling investment ideas.

time to read: 4 minutes | Author: André Will-Laudien

Table of contents:

    Alibaba - Good figures continue to push the stock up

    Currently, brokerage houses are overflowing with new estimates for the Chinese Alibaba Group. Because to all defiance, the value rose from its March low at about EUR 66 to meanwhile over EUR 116. Of course, the European currency has depreciated by around 7% in the same period, but that does not change the outstanding performance of the Chinese online retailer.

    Reasons could be the easing regulatory pressure from the government or the retreat of the leading stock to Hong Kong. Chinese growth stocks fell out of favor on the NASDAQ in 2021 for not complying enough with US accounting rules but have since relented on that front. Alibaba's sales are growing at a constant rate of 10-15% per year, and its profits have recently increased by more than 20%. Therefore, the end of the flagpole is not yet in sight, with the Company's sales for the March quarter beating analysts' forecasts thanks to cost control measures and growth in new business areas.

    Brokerage houses speak a clear language. JPM takes Alibaba back on the buy list with a price target of USD 135, HSBC follows with a "Buy" and USD 141, and the Australian Macquarie even sees USD 145 on a 12-month basis. The market chart also points upwards. We had already lifted the thumb at EUR 93. Set a stop at EUR 108 to secure profits.

    Kleos Space SA - Successful refinancing of high growth

    Geopolitical instability is a positive growth component for Kleos Space SA (KSS), even if nobody wants such conditions. But the demand for satellite-based data analysis for military purposes is currently on the rise. The high-tech company, which has its business headquarters in Luxembourg, puts satellites into orbit to remotely capture primarily maritime and land-based radio and motion activity and to process it in a high-quality, customer-oriented manner.

    The Data-as-a-Service specialist will have 16 satellites in orbit with the rescheduled launch on the Transporter-6 SpaceX mission in October. As a result, the data yield and quality will continue to increase. Kleos has now raised another loan to refinance its plans. The secured facility has a volume of 10 million Australian dollars and is provided by PURE Asset Management.

    Commenting on the credit facility, Andy Bowyer, CEO of Kleos, said: "Kleos is in a period of rapid growth, responding to market needs for greater situational awareness. Increasing global risks and conflicts have led to a growing demand for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance data. With each new group of satellites we operate, we increase our data collection capacity and revenue generation opportunities."

    KSS shares have suffered somewhat in the recent sell-off in growth stocks and are now back at around AUD 0.44, or EUR 0.28. With 178 million shares currently, the market capitalization is AUD 78.3 million. Kleos is a good selection in the current geopolitical environment.

    Uniper - Main loser in gas supply failures

    The German government fears a possible chain reaction in the German-Russian gas crisis. Uniper's delivery obligations to its gas customers are putting Germany's largest gas trader in a precarious position that threatens its very existence. The price of gas is rising steadily, while at the same time, Russian supplies are falling. But contracts with the customers cannot be changed easily because the long-term agreements with the municipal utilities do not provide for short-term increases.

    After TUI, Lufthansa, Commerzbank and Hypo Real Estate, it looks as if the German government will have to dip into its pockets again to bridge economic emergencies. One solution is seen in the floating LNG supply. The energy company Uniper has now received approval to connect Germany's first floating tank farm for liquefied natural gas in Wilhelmshaven. Further such facilities are in the planning stage, but time is pressing considerably for Uniper.

    According to financial circles, the German government could take a stake of up to 25%. The nominal value per new share is said to be a low EUR 1.70, which would provide around EUR 150 million in equity. In addition, a dormant equity holding with a volume of EUR 3 to 5 billion is said to be under discussion. Since February, the share price has been cut in half. At around EUR 10, it is now valued at only EUR 3.8 billion. Casino!

    TeamViewer - No stopping at the EUR 10 mark either

    TeamViewer must now also be included in the list of big losers. The former profit driver of the pandemic home office wave operationally came under the wheels in October 2021, and the 12-month loss is now 70%. There have been takeover rumors time and again. SAP was supposed to have shown interest, but there has been no deal so far.

    Business in Russia and Belarus was discontinued, which lowered the expected billing revenues by about 9%. It remains to be hoped whether other regions can make up for the drop in bookings because, after all, TeamViewer grew by over 20% annually in the best times. In the last few days, the board of directors jumped in with millions, but investment banks such as JPMorgan see major economic uncertainties and lowered their price target from EUR 18 to EUR 12. After a crash to EUR 8.89 at the beginning of the week, there are now the first buybacks. The technical indicators show a short-term oversold condition, a little treat for the courageous new investor. Keep watch!

    Investing in stocks in times of crisis is marked by particular stresses and fluctuations. New investments require courage and good technical indicators. Alibaba and Kleos send positive signals, and Uniper and TeamViewer should be on the short watch list.

    Conflict of interest

    Pursuant to §85 of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG), we point out that Apaton Finance GmbH as well as partners, authors or employees of Apaton Finance GmbH (hereinafter referred to as "Relevant Persons") may hold shares or other financial instruments of the aforementioned companies in the future or may bet on rising or falling prices and thus a conflict of interest may arise in the future. The Relevant Persons reserve the right to buy or sell shares or other financial instruments of the Company at any time (hereinafter each a "Transaction"). Transactions may, under certain circumstances, influence the respective price of the shares or other financial instruments of the Company.

    In addition, Apaton Finance GmbH is active in the context of the preparation and publication of the reporting in paid contractual relationships.

    For this reason, there is a concrete conflict of interest.

    The above information on existing conflicts of interest applies to all types and forms of publication used by Apaton Finance GmbH for publications on companies.

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    Der Autor

    André Will-Laudien

    Born in Munich, he first studied economics and graduated in business administration at the Ludwig-Maximilians-University in 1995. As he was involved with the stock market at a very early stage, he now has more than 30 years of experience in the capital markets.

    About the author

    Related comments:

    Commented by André Will-Laudien on September 22nd, 2023 | 07:20 CEST

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