Buy or sell? TUI, BASF and Defence Therapeutics

Defence Therapeutics: With the next milestone to becoming a takeover candidate?

Skin cancer, cervical cancer, breast cancer: Defence Therapeutics operates in areas like many large biotech companies. At the same time, the Canadians are researching innovative assistive technologies for the big players. Defence Therapeutics is thus positioning itself at least as a partner and perhaps even more - will the takeover follow soon? While it has become quiet around German biotech companies such as BioNTech, Morphosys and EVOTEC, Defence Therapeutics reports one progress after the other. A few days ago, the latest success: all mandatory preclinical efficacy studies for the AccuTOXTM programme were successfully completed. AccuTOXTM is one of Defence's most advanced research and development programmes. AccuTOXTM has been shown to be highly effective in preventing tumour growth in many animal models, including T-cell lymphoma, breast cancer and melanoma.

Defence CEO Sebastien Plouffe said, "The Defence team is excited about the milestones achieved in AccumTM-related products, which include the AccuTOXTM programme. AccuTOXTM is suitable for all solid tumors and can synergize with a wide range of immune checkpoint inhibitors, making it a future treatment of choice in immuno-oncology." Market researcher Data Bridge estimates that the market volume for solid tumor treatments is expected to grow 20% annually from USD 209.61 billion in 2021 to USD 901.27 billion by 2029, multiplying.

With a market capitalization in the low triple-digit millions, Defence Therapeutics remains an exciting option for risk-conscious investors, according to experts at researchanalyst.com. In the field of nuclear medicine, there is already a cooperation with the French state-owned group Orano. In addition, researchanalyst.com sees numerous possible points of contact with the development pipelines of Moderna and BioNTech. What these are can be read in the study here researchanalyst.com/de/updates/pipelines-von-biontech-moderna-und-defence-therapeutics-it-s-a-match. Defence Therapeutics will present next week on May 10, 2023, at the IIF virtual investor conference. (Click here for free registration https://ii-forum.com).

TUI: Sends the federal government off the board

TUI has completed its turbulent capital increase, but the stock has yet to recover from the price debacle surrounding the transaction. A major recovery of the deeply fallen TUI share price has so far failed to materialize. Yesterday the share was trading at around EUR 5.80, only just above the low for the year of just over EUR 5.63.

TUI has meanwhile used the proceeds from the capital increase with a volume of EUR 1.8 billion. The travel group redeemed the still outstanding silent participation and option bond of the German government. This means the financial aid received during the COVID-19 pandemic has been repaid in full. At its peak, the federal government had given TUI EUR 4.3 billion in aid to prevent insolvency during the pandemic.

As recently as the end of February, TUI had carried out a capital cut and merged 10 shares into 1 new share. Without this measure, TUI would be a penny stock by now. Analysts are still keeping a low profile after the capital increase.

BASF share: EUR 65 or EUR 43?

After BASF reported final figures for the first quarter of 2023, quite a number of analysts have had their say. Their opinions on the chemical giant's prospects and fair share price differ widely. Alster Research is the most optimistic. The analysts from Hamburg see a target price of EUR 65 (current price approx. EUR 46) and recommend buying the share. Although sales in the first three months of the year just missed consensus estimates, EBIT (ex-SI) looks good. If the second quarter closes with a similarly high margin, the analysts expect an increase in the EBIT forecast for the full year 2023. In addition, shareholders could look forward to an attractive dividend payout.

JP Morgan is also in the camp of the optimists. Commenting on the quarterly figures, the analysts emphasized that BASF had reduced inventories to a gratifying extent. They, too, expect that the EBIT forecast for the full year might be too low, and consensus estimates could soon rise. JP Morgan itself has also raised EBIT estimates for 2024 and 2025. On this basis, BASF shares are cheap. The analysts raised their price target from EUR 55 to EUR 58. Deutsche Bank also recommends buying the shares of the DAX company with a price target of EUR 60.

While the BASF share is a hold for Goldman Sachs and Berenberg, there are also sell recommendations. UBS sees the chemical company's share as fairly valued at EUR 43. Therefore, the rating is "Sell". The analysts do not believe that BASF will meet expectations in the second quarter. This could also mean that the forecast increase expected by Alster Research is off the table. We will see who is right.

Driven by the continued strong newsflow and the upcoming investor conference, the chances are good that the Defence Therapeutics share will soon end its consolidation and take off again. In the case of TUI, a countermovement after the share price disaster is possible at any time, but there is currently no confidence in the management for a long-term increase in the share price. BASF has weathered the challenging year of 2022 well, and if Q2 is similarly positive, forecast increases could follow.