Biotech blockbusters: BioNTech, XPhyto Therapeutics, Valneva, CureVac - What to expect from these stocks?

BioNTech - Back at the critical line, where do we go from here?

76.2% of the German population have received at least one vaccination dose to date. 63.3 million people have thus already received primary immunization, and 51.2 million went for a second shot. Only 5.7 million people, or 6.9%, received a second booster vaccination. As before, 18.5 million people, or 22.2% of the population, have not been vaccinated. With currently only about 50,000 vaccinations per day, the many millions of vaccine doses ordered are likely to remain on the shelf for the time being.

For the major vaccine manufacturers, future orders will likely decline more sharply, but BioNTech has already been able to negotiate many millions of doses for the fall. With the Corona vaccine, the Mainz-based biotech has not only led its first substance to approval but has also been able to close 2021 with a full EUR 10 billion in profits. Recently, the biotech company published an update on the vaccine candidates adapted to the Omicron variant. The results of the phase 2/3 trial show that the improved vaccine elicits a significantly higher immune response against Omicron BA.1 through booster vaccination compared to the basic version of the blockbuster "Comirnaty". The vaccine is also effective against other Omicron subvariants, but not as strongly as against BA.1.

The BioNTech share has fallen below the critical EUR 115 line twice due to two sharp downward movements but has always been able to break away from it dynamically. Adjusted estimates attest to a strong decline in sales between 2022 and 2026, but you never know with what achievements the biotech company will come around the corner. From a purely technical point of view, the value should not fall below the line of EUR 115 again; then, the technical hope for better times will remain. Keep watch.

XPhyto Therapeutics - The bio accelerator could now become interesting

XPhyto Therapeutics had tried to gain a foothold in the COVID PCR testing market in the fall of 2021. The development ultimately took too long to capture significant market share, and the stock went chart technically into a sell-off. The reason for this was undoubtedly the permanent reporting of low sales in the group because, in the eyes of investors, a market-ready product should at some point provide noticeable revenues after a few years of research.

The Company's remaining pipeline is still attractive, as it has several products in its quiver from the ODF preparations division of its German subsidiary Vektor Pharma. Using intelligent formulation technologies, Vektor has investigated generic and new active ingredients and developed them into efficient transdermal systems. Locally acting dermal systems are films formulated in such a way that the active ingredient cannot pass into the bloodstream but remains in the skin. Examples include pain patches that are applied just before injections.

Orally Disintegrating Films (ODF) are bioadhesive films that rapidly disintegrate on the tongue or in the mouth and release active ingredients in the mouth, providing a rapid response. Applications include colds, vitamin supplementation, and emergency situations. Developed ready for the market in 2021, the Company's rotigotine patch is based on the TDS platform technology developed by the German subsidiary. This dosage form is becoming increasingly popular internationally, and the only thing XPhyto lacks here is a suitable distribution partner with clout. According to Research and Markets, the global transdermal skin patch market had already reached a value of nearly USD 6.5 billion by 2020 and is expected to grow to about USD 20 billion by 2028, according to Kuick Research. In addition to this research, the Canadians are also working on evaluating psychedelic agents for treating neurological disorders.

XPhyto shares now appear to have paused in the recent downtrend. For several days, the price has fluctuated between CAD 0.55 and 0.62, or around EUR 0.42, with good turnover. The trading volume in Germany is sometimes even higher than in Canada due to the high profile of the subsidiaries Vektor and 3a. The current conspicuous turnover could therefore be the harbinger for external interested parties. Keep the stock on your watchlist!

Valneva versus CureVac - Who can seal the next deal?

Things are getting exciting again for biotech stocks in the vaccine sector, which have not yet achieved market success. Despite all the delays in the development phase of its dead vaccine, the share of the French-Austrian biotech company Valneva has become one of the best vaccine stocks in 2021, without a broad market launch having taken place. However, a sellout to EUR 7.25 occurred in mid-June when there were renewed delays in the EU approval process. However, EMA approval has now been granted, and Valneva shareholders can breathe a sigh of relief, at least in the short term. The price rally started promptly and catapulted the share price upwards by 70%. Since only the approval has been confirmed so far, it remains to be seen whether the EU will uphold the planned order from 2021.

CureVac has been very quiet on the Corona vaccine front. It recently announced the acquisition of Frame Cancer Therapeutics; a private company focused on advanced genomics and bioinformatics to identify neoantigens for various cancers. "Embedding Frame's technology and expertise into CureVac's oncology research complements our ability to identify and validate promising neoantigens for our mRNA cancer vaccine programs," said Franz-Werner Haas, chief executive officer of CureVac.

With the newly developed bioinformatics platform, CureVac has a tool to identify a broad spectrum of neoantigens beyond conventional neoantigens that could help develop highly effective cancer vaccines. Another application of Frame's technology is the development of personalized cancer vaccines, harnessing the full antigenic potential of a tumor. In December 2021, regulatory authorities in the Netherlands approved Frame's clinical trial protocol to evaluate the peptide vaccine-based approach in 15 patients with non-small cell lung cancer. CureVac will now refocus its development of mRNA-based personalized cancer vaccines.

The stock has already suffered badly in the market with a 77% loss in 12 months but could become interesting again with initial success reports. The speculative investor can quietly collect the title in the current corridor between EUR 12 and EUR 14. However, for this investment, investors need patience and nerves for the medium term.

The biotech sector thrives on its successes, and the associated shares have always been a hot potato. With the COVID pandemic, there have been big winners and just as many losers. The right investment selection remains an arduous selection process. XPhyto's interesting TDS platform technology may one day also be highly interesting for third parties.