Bayer, MustGrow Biologics, and Yara International: How to Capitalize on the 40% Fertilizer Price Surge in Your Portfolio

Bayer: Between a Crop Offensive and Pharmaceutical Hope

Bayer's Crop Science division is relying on an unusual weapon in the fight against climate change: short-statured corn. Trials are underway across approximately 200,000 hectares in the US Midwest to reduce crop losses caused by severe storms. This is a smart move, as farmers are struggling with cost pressures. At the same time, the billion-dollar glyphosate settlements are weighing on the balance sheet. While the planned USD 7.25 billion deal is intended to provide planning certainty, final court approval is still pending.

Investors should mark April 27 in red on their calendars. That is when the US Supreme Court will hear arguments on whether federal law can override stricter state warning requirements for glyphosate. A positive ruling by June could cut the ground from under future lawsuits. Analysts now view the risks as more calculable, and DZ Bank raised its rating to "Hold." However, the weak USD and price pressure in agricultural chemicals remain headwinds.

The situation is different in the pharmaceuticals division. Kerendia received an additional indication for heart failure in the EU, and revenue surged by 88% in 2025. Together with Nubeqa, management is targeting peak revenue of over EUR 3 billion each. Asundexian received Fast Track status from the FDA. Although Xarelto generics and tariffs are weighing on the company, Bayer is exploring the expansion of US production. The operating margin is expected to climb to 30% by 2030, a clear signal for the second half of the year. The stock is currently trading at EUR 40.79.

MustGrow Biologics: Streamlining Around Core Product - TerraSante™

Canadian agrobiotech MustGrow Biologics is refocusing. Its own NexusBioAg division will be shut down in mid-April 2026. The unit was essentially a reseller of third-party products to Canadian farmers—a low-margin, highly competitive business. Instead, capital is now being fully channeled into its own biofertility solution, TerraSante™. The move makes sense, as demand from the US has cleared out inventory by 2025. With fresh financing of CAD 2 million plus a CAD 2 million credit line, production is now set to ramp up. TerraSante™ is already being sold in six states, including California and Florida.

TerraSante™ is a mesh-like powder made from mustard plants, packed with proteins and carbohydrates that feed soil microbes. The idea is to create healthier soil, improve nutrient uptake, and thereby increase yields. The US market for specialty crops such as fruits, vegetables, nuts, and potatoes covers approximately 5.6 million acres.
If MustGrow achieves a market penetration of just 3.3%, that would translate to USD 100 million in revenue. And because California strawberry farmers harvest up to four crops per year on the same acreage, the addressable market expands exponentially. Production is handled by third-party manufacturers in Asia, allowing the company to avoid the costs of building its own expensive facilities.

Meanwhile, registration of the biopesticide TerraMG™ is underway. In two-year field trials on 100 acres, a reduction of up to 95% in clubroot spores in rapeseed was observed under wet weather conditions. Yield gains reached seven bushels per acre, representing an added value of CAD 91. Here, the partnership with Bayer is helping by driving registration efforts in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. This saves MustGrow Biologics millions in investment costs. With CAD 0.4 million in revenue, the company has reached the commercial phase. This is typical for a young company, which is now ramping up TerraSante production for the US market with CAD 4 million in fresh liquidity. The groundwork for scaling is solid. The stock is currently trading at CAD 0.57.

Yara International – Ahead of Quarterly Results

The Oslo-based fertilizer company Yara International is starting the spring with momentum. Rising global prices for urea and nitrogen-containing products, triggered by supply disruptions in the Middle East, are likely to have boosted margins. Added to this are seasonal pre-purchases in Europe ahead of the new CO2 border tax. Analysts expect a strong first quarter but also issue a warning. Current price levels could prove unsustainable once geopolitical tensions ease. Additionally, higher gas prices in Europe are weighing on production costs, while a weaker USD is slightly dampening overseas revenues.

Alongside its day-to-day operations, Yara is driving forward its long-term realignment. The focus is on increasing free cash flow by USD 600 million by 2030, partly through cost reductions and improved plant utilization. Savings of USD 250 million have already been realized since 2024. The planned billion-dollar investment in a US project for low-emission ammonia with Air Products could get the green light later this year. A final decision on CO2 capture in the Netherlands would also be a positive catalyst. The proposed dividend of NOK 22 per share, equivalent to approximately EUR 1.99, underscores the company's commitment to reliable shareholder returns.

The stock has risen significantly since the start of the year, but valuations vary. While some research firms are betting on the worsening urea shortage, others remain cautious due to volatile gas prices and a potential investigation by the US Department of Justice. In the short term, disappointing quarterly results on April 24 could cause setbacks. In the medium to long term, the key will be whether Yara keeps its costs under control and benefits from decarbonization. Investors should also keep an eye on the development of Chinese urea exports, which could disrupt the global price structure. Currently, one share costs EUR 49.77.

The Iran conflict is blocking the Strait of Hormuz and driving nitrogen fertilizer prices up by 40%, putting fertilizer companies in the spotlight. Bayer could benefit from a positive Supreme Court ruling in the glyphosate dispute, while its pharmaceutical division is already growing strongly. MustGrow Biologics is focusing on its biofertilizer TerraSante™ and is tapping into the multi-billion-dollar US specialty crop market with lean structures. Yara International is capitalizing on high urea prices but remains vulnerable to volatile gas prices and Chinese exports.