August 18th, 2021 | 10:43 CEST
Bayer, Cardiol Therapeutics, CureVac: The Champions League of Bio-Pharma!
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Born in Munich, he first studied economics and graduated in business administration at the Ludwig-Maximilians-University in 1995. As he was involved with the stock market at a very early stage, he now has more than 30 years of experience in the capital markets.
Bayer - The Hardeman case ends up before the Supreme Court after all
Issues in bio-pharma do not always revolve around research and product launches. Bayer went straight into the clutches of the US judiciary after the Monsanto acquisition in 2018. From a German perspective, it should have been known better after Dieselgate that US attorneys readily target bulging corporate coffers. After VW, Bayer is now also feeling the effects of this playground for lawyers.
The purchase price for Monsanto was USD 66 billion, making it the largest takeover by a German company abroad to date. Although this makes Bayer the world's number one in the agrochemicals business, it also means it takes on the inherited debts from the glyphosate affair. Bayer has already set aside around USD 11 billion for a settlement package to resolve US lawsuits. Some 96,000 cases have already been finally settled, but more will follow.
In the Edwin Hardeman case, Bayer counts on a supreme court decision in the billion-dollar legal dispute. The DAX-listed Company filed a petition for review with the Supreme Court at the beginning of the week. Specifically, this case is about a cancer brought about in connection with regular contact with glyphosate. A smaller US court has already awarded the plaintiff a total of just over USD 25 million in damages. Should the highest US court accept the case for decision and judge in the interests of Bayer, this would have a high signal effect for future lawsuits and their chances of success against Bayer.
Glyphosate has now been an issue since mid-2018. Bayer shares are now worth about 30% less than the Monsanto acquisition cost at the time. Again, an example (similar to Daimler-Chrysler) of failed German entries into the US market. The M&A learning curve is probably still at the beginning; it is the biggest value destruction in the Company's history for Bayer shareholders. But, one should follow the Supreme Court's actions closely now because Bayer has already made substantial provisions in recent years. So, balance sheet explosives are lying dormant here!
Cardiol Therapeutics - There is much more to it than that
Cardiol Therapeutics Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on the discovery and clinical development of innovative anti-inflammatory therapies for the treatment of cardiovascular disease (CVD). The Company's lead product, CardiolRx, is a pharmaceutically manufactured oral cannabidiol formulation that is currently being evaluated in a Phase II/III outcome study in hospitalized patients who tested positive for the COVID-19 virus.
Research is well advanced and this potential pivotal study could demonstrate the efficacy and safety of CardiolRx as a cardioprotective therapeutic to reduce mortality. The analysis of major cardiovascular events in COVID-19 patients associated with prior cardiovascular disease is of interest in this regard. What are the risk factors for HKE, and what is the impact of CardiolRx on important markers of inflammatory heart disease? Without exaggeration, perhaps the solution to many coronary diseases of our time lies here. After all, this indication remains the most common cause of sudden cardiac death in people under 35 years of age.
Cardiol Therapeutics has now also been listed on the NASDAQ since August 10. It is a mark of distinction, as not every biotech company makes this leap. Cardiol thus pushes open the door to further sources of financing, as many institutional investors require higher market segments to be allowed to invest at all. Cardiol can now raise growth capital much more easily.
Cardiol Therapeutics was able to come up with a surprising price jump yesterday. Early in the morning, EUR 2.86 was called. The calculated price at the previous day's close in Canada would have been only EUR 2.10. The reason could be the remaining euphoria about the NASDAQ listing and a rating confirmation by GBC Research, which calculated a price target of CAD 17.49 in its update to the latest buy study. The current price is hovering around CAD 3.40 - that would be a mathematical fivefold increase. Urgently take a few pieces into your portfolio.
CureVac - Still a lot in the quiver?
After an extended rally by BioNTech and Moderna, many wonder what is going on with CureVac. The approval applications for the first vaccine, "CVnCoV," failed in the EU due to an efficacy of only 47%. As a result, the price of CureVac has plummeted by almost 60% since June. In the meantime, however, solid chart support has formed in the range of EUR 45 to 50. Can a comeback now be expected? We take a look at the fundamental development.
CureVac was considered an mRNA pioneer at the beginning of the pandemic. The manufacturer from Tübingen, however, recently flopped with its vaccine against Covid-19. On closer inspection, the problems were already apparent at the start: While numerous competitors had long since brought their vaccines to market, CureVac was still collecting data. Neither the decline in the incidence of infection nor the occurrence of mutations could be blamed for this. It was due to the technology, which is the problem at CureVac: Unlike BioNTech and Moderna, CureVac did not replace uridine with pseudouridine, which, according to studies, prevents the degradation of mRNA and minimizes immune reactions. This error is now said to have been corrected.
A new vaccine candidate can already achieve better results: "CV2CoV" is being developed with the major partner GlaxoSmithKline (GSK). A first preclinical study has shown strongly improved immune responses. Currently, the vaccine is still being tested in cynomolgus monkeys. There is at least hope that CureVac has learned and will only go to market again with results once high validity has been achieved.
Hope is flaring up again for CureVac. The share price is rising - most recently 10% in just 3 days. If a better 2nd generation vaccine is indeed invented, the way is paved for significantly higher share prices. All in all, we believe that the news situation should be followed meticulously. Initial speculative positions make perfect sense.
Investment in bio-pharma shares is accompanied by high fluctuations. The prices move very violently, according to the information on studies and approvals. Bayer and CureVac are in special situations, but a quick turnaround is always possible. On the other hand, Cardiol Therapeutics is at the beginning of the development curve and is researching an area with blockbuster potential!
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