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December 14th, 2022 | 12:02 CET

Bayer, BioNTech, Auxico Resources: 200% price gain possible?

  • Mining
  • Commodities
  • RareEarths
  • Biotechnology
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With lower than expected inflation in the US, the year-end rally has picked up speed. Could the recession be off after all, or at least short-lived? This would likely boost the stock market in the coming year as well. Today we look at three stocks with potential that benefit from global trends and less from developments in Germany. In the case of Bayer, Bernstein Research has outed itself as a super bull. The global agricultural business should continue to run strong. Auxico Resources is positioning itself as a trader of rare earths and critical raw materials. Revenues are expected to jump significantly in the coming year, and analysts say the stock could triple. BioNTech could finally break out of the sideways trend it has been in since early 2022. The new combination vaccine and the cancer pipeline give hope.

time to read: 3 minutes | Author: Fabian Lorenz

Table of contents:

    Dr. Thomas Gutschlag, CEO, Deutsche Rohstoff AG
    "[...] China's dominance is one of the reasons why we are so heavily involved in the tungsten market. Here, around 85% of production is in Chinese hands. [...]" Dr. Thomas Gutschlag, CEO, Deutsche Rohstoff AG

    Full interview


    Auxico share about to triple?

    Auxico Resources specializes in trading rare earths and critical commodities. Through partnerships in Africa and South America - often with state-owned enterprises - the Canadian company has secured licenses to access over 4 million metric tons. By its own account, this makes it one of the leading suppliers outside China. The advantage of a trader over traditional mining companies: Capital requirements are significantly lower. After the build-up phase in the current year, the Company expects to generate significant revenues in 2023. "Auxico is positioned to become one of the most important suppliers of critical raw materials and rare earths to the global economy," Auxico CEO Frederick Kozak said at last week's IIF virtual investor conference (view presentation Auxico expects a commission income of CAD 10 million to CAD 18 million in the coming year. Since trading costs are manageable, a high margin should be realistic. The Company is currently valued at CAD 30 million.

    It is therefore not surprising that analysts see significant price potential for 2023. Hallgarten, a research house specializing in commodity companies, sees a price target of CAD 1.48 for the Auxico share. The share is currently trading at CAD 0.42. Thus, there is the potential for a tripling. Among other things, the analysts see an end to the price decline in tin. The high-flyer commodity of recent years has crashed from over USD 50,000 to almost USD 20,000 per ton in 2022. In recent months, however, the price has recovered and is now back on an upward trend at around USD 26,000.

    Fittingly, Auxico has recently secured further volumes of high-grade tin in Colombia through a joint venture. This agreement represents a significant amount of tin and a potentially new sustainable revenue stream for the Company. The goal is to export at least 100 tons of high-grade tin per month, with an average tin content of more than 65%. The launch could take place as early as the end of December 2022.

    Bayer share at EUR 96?

    Bayer's stock is one of the bright spots in the DAX in 2022. However, the EUR 55 mark currently seems to be the limit. But according to Bernstein Research, significantly higher prices are possible in the coming year. Thus, the analysts have renewed their "Outperform" recommendation for the DAX group. In the agricultural business, the Leverkusen-based company would benefit from the fundamentally strong situation in the soybean and corn sectors. As a result, they name a price target for the Bayer share of EUR 96. The stock last saw such a price level in 2018. This makes Bernstein the bull among Bayer analysts. Berenberg and Jefferies still believe that the stock is worth EUR 70. But even this still corresponds to a price potential of over 30%. At Bank of America, the figure is only 10%. For the analysts, the Bayer share is a hold, as prices in the pharmaceuticals sector are unlikely to be raised as much as would be necessary due to high inflation. Accordingly, margins are likely to decline. Therefore, their price target is EUR 58.

    BioNTech: Will the breakout succeed?

    Analysts last commented on BioNTech several weeks ago. However, the share has not let this slow it down. It is currently trading at around EUR 165 and is making a new attempt to break out of the sideways trend that has persisted since the beginning of the year. The chances of a breakout are not bad. On the one hand, the combination vaccine against COVID-19 and influenza developed by BioNTech and US partner Pfizer has been approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for the accelerated approval procedure. Prior to this, the Phase 1 trial has already begun. This study will investigate the safety, tolerability and immunogenicity of the combined influenza-COVID-19 vaccine candidate in healthy adults. And then, of course, the Mainz-based company is also working through its cancer pipeline. There should be a strong newsflow there in the coming year. The pipeline currently includes 19 product candidates in 24 ongoing clinical trials. For 2023, BioNTech has announced new data from up to 10 clinical trials.

    For Bayer, BioNTech and Auxico Resources, there is a strong case for rising share prices. At Bayer, the glyphosate problem is currently being ignored, and hopes are pinned on a strong agricultural business. If BioNTech continues to shine with positive study results, the share price should also shine again. And then there are also rumors that the COVID-19 vaccine could be used in China after all. Auxico Resources could become one of the surprise stocks of the coming year. The trader has a low capital requirement and higher commodity prices - especially if a global recession fails to materialize - drive profits disproportionately.

    Conflict of interest

    Pursuant to §85 of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG), we point out that Apaton Finance GmbH as well as partners, authors or employees of Apaton Finance GmbH (hereinafter referred to as "Relevant Persons") may hold shares or other financial instruments of the aforementioned companies in the future or may bet on rising or falling prices and thus a conflict of interest may arise in the future. The Relevant Persons reserve the right to buy or sell shares or other financial instruments of the Company at any time (hereinafter each a "Transaction"). Transactions may, under certain circumstances, influence the respective price of the shares or other financial instruments of the Company.

    In addition, Apaton Finance GmbH is active in the context of the preparation and publication of the reporting in paid contractual relationships.

    For this reason, there is a concrete conflict of interest.

    The above information on existing conflicts of interest applies to all types and forms of publication used by Apaton Finance GmbH for publications on companies.

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    Der Autor

    Fabian Lorenz

    For more than twenty years, the Cologne native has been intensively involved with the stock market, both professionally and privately. He is particularly passionate about national and international small and micro caps.

    About the author

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