Barrick Gold, Golden Cariboo Resources, Deutz – Seeking a safe haven? Gold shines, Weapons boom!

Barrick Gold - Gold market in a record mood

Gold is writing a success story in 2025. With an all-time high of USD 3,000 per ounce, demand for safe investments is also driving the mining industry. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) has risen significantly since the beginning of the year, thereby significantly outperforming the price of physical gold. With a market capitalization of USD 32.5 billion, Barrick Gold has gained around 25% but is lagging behind the sector. In February, the Company caused a stir with solid quarterly figures. Earnings per share of USD 0.46 exceeded expectations, while gold production rose by 15% in Q4. Barrick also increased its share buyback program to USD 1 billion – a signal to investors.

Despite positive business figures for 2024, cracks are showing. The gold production forecast for 2025 was lowered to 3.15 – 3.5 million ounces, partly due to interrupted activities in Mali. The government has been blocking exports since November, which costs the Company USD 10 million a month in fixed costs. However, a deal with the Malian government is said to be close to completion. At the same time, the key Reko Diq project in Pakistan requires high capital expenditures, and financing from local partners remains fragile. Analysts reacted skeptically and lowered their profit expectations. They are doubtful whether the targeted profit increase of 17% is achievable. Nevertheless, Barrick impresses with a free cash flow yield of 4%, driven by high gold prices.

Barrick is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 16, below the industry average. Conservative valuation models show a target price of USD 24.50, which implies an upside potential of 30%. Technically, the stock is showing long-term strength with a rising 200-day moving average, but it needs to break the USD 21 resistance level. In the short term, seasonal effects could help, as March and April have historically been strong months. For risk-conscious investors, Barrick remains worth considering, but the outcome of the Mali negotiations and copper prices will determine the price momentum. The stock is currently available for USD 18.87.

Golden Cariboo Resources - Drilling Successes and New Exploration Targets

Golden Cariboo Resources' flagship project, the Quesnelle Gold Quartz Mine in British Columbia, is located in an area with a history of gold mining, where over 2,000 tons of ore at 3.14 g/t gold were mined between 1932 and 1939. The project is located just 4 km northeast of Hixon and borders properties of Osisko Development, whose mine is going into production. The Company has recently successfully completed the second tranche of a private placement, raising a total of CAD 1.2 million to date with the first tranche. The financing, announced in January 2025, included the sale of units at CAD 0.13 each, consisting of one share and one-half warrant. The latter allows the purchase of additional shares at progressively higher prices until 2028. The funds will be used to explore the Quesnelle Gold Quartz Mine in British Columbia and for working capital.

On February 25, the Company announced the expansion of the Halo Zone. In the latest exploration campaign, drill hole QGQ24-20 on the Halo Zone intersected 0.71 g/t gold and 6.96 g/t silver over 342 m, including 137 m of 1.45 g/t gold. The zone now measures 320 meters long by 290 meters wide by 320 meters thick and remains open at depth and to the northwest. CEO Frank Callaghan emphasizes the significance of the identified greenstone contact, which often indicates the world's best gold deposits. The proximity to infrastructure – only 4 km from the village of Hixon – underscores the economic attractiveness. Up to 7,500 m of drilling is planned for 2025 to explore the potential further.

The current soil analyses using the MMI methodology also show potential, revealing 2 promising anomalies north of the Halo Zone. The first anomaly indicates strong gold concentrations over 240 x 135 m, while the second indicates a combination of gold, silver, and copper with other metals over 200 x 500 m. Both zones are outside of previous drilling areas and indicate undiscovered mineralization. Geologist David Mark sees "significant exploration targets" here, which the Company will investigate further with prospecting and drilling activities in 2025. The stock is currently trading at CAD 0.12, which is cheaper than in the private placement.

Deutz – Strategic course set

Cologne-based engine manufacturer Deutz delivered surprisingly stable results in a weak market environment for 2024. Although revenue fell by 12.1% to EUR 1.81 billion, the adjusted operating profit (EBIT) of EUR 76.7 million underscores the Company's resilience. Drivers were strategic acquisitions such as the US company Blue Star Power Systems and parts of Rolls-Royce's off-highway business, which increased new orders by 4.4%. The sale of the loss-making subsidiary Torqeedo provided additional relief. Deutz is targeting revenue of EUR 2.1 - 2.3 billion in 2025, driven by hopes of a recovery in the second half of the year - though without considering potential US tariff risks.

Deutz is increasingly relying on armaments projects to broaden its base. The focus is on engines for light military vehicles and the modernization of existing tank platforms, not on heavy battle tanks. In the long term, the billion-euro German infrastructure and defense package could provide further impetus – for example, through demand for construction equipment. Deutz has launched an efficiency program to increase its EBIT margin to 5-6% by 2026. Up to 300 jobs will be cut, and EUR 50 million will be saved annually.

At the same time, the Company is pursuing ambitious goals. By the end of the decade, revenue is to be doubled to EUR 4 billion, among other things, by expanding the service business, decentralized energy projects, and a stronger positioning as a system provider. For now, shareholders will receive a stable dividend of EUR 0.17 per share. Analysts such as Hauck & Aufhäuser see further potential and have issued a price target of EUR 11. The stock has already benefited from the euphoria over armaments. Since the beginning of the year, it has gained over 95% at its peak and, after profit-taking, rose again by over 19% last Friday. At Xetra's closing, the stock stood at EUR 7.395.

In uncertain times, gold and armaments are in the spotlight. Barrick Gold benefits from record gold prices and share buybacks, but struggles with production risks in Mali and Pakistan. Golden Cariboo Resources impresses with drilling progress and new discoveries in British Columbia, as well as new financing. Deutz is focusing on defense diversification and efficiency programs, and aims to double revenue by 2030 despite weak markets. While gold retains its appeal, the defense boom shows that security has many faces.