May 22nd, 2025 | 07:00 CEST
Another 100% with momentum stocks Rheinmetall, TUI, and 123fahrschule?! Analysts recommend buying
Are Rheinmetall's forecasts too conservative? One analyst thinks so. If this is true, there is a good chance that the defense company's shares will break through the EUR 2,000 mark. The 123fahrschule share is also riding a wave of momentum, rising by around 70% within just a few weeks. This could be just the beginning, as the Company is disrupting an analog industry with a digital business model. Analysts believe a further 100% price gain is possible, and the management board wants to buy shares well above the current price. In contrast, darker clouds are gathering at TUI. The tourism group has long been able to withstand the weak economy, but is that now over? The price targets vary widely.
time to read: 4 minutes
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Author:
Fabian Lorenz
ISIN:
RHEINMETALL AG | DE0007030009 , TUI AG NA O.N. | DE000TUAG505 , 123FAHRSCHULE SE | DE000A2P4HL9
Table of contents:
Author
Fabian Lorenz
For more than twenty years, the Cologne native has been intensively involved with the stock market, both professionally and privately. He is particularly passionate about national and international small and micro caps.
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123fahrschule in rally mode: Another 100% possible?
The 123fahrschule share has been in rally mode since the beginning of April. There are many reasons to believe that prices will continue to rise: momentum, strong operational performance, high price targets, and an exciting change in the shareholder structure.
In the first quarter of 2025, the Company increased its revenue by 18% to EUR 6.6 million. On the earnings side, 123fahrschule is increasingly benefiting from economies of scale and growing local brand awareness. As a result, EBITDA improved from EUR -50 thousand to EUR 650 thousand in the reporting period. The figures do not yet include the major order for driving simulators reported in January 2025. The devices are scheduled for delivery in the current quarter.
Following the announcement, analysts confirmed their "Buy" recommendations. From mwb research's perspective, 123fahrschule is well on track to achieve its annual forecast and analyst estimates. Therefore, they see the share's fair value at EUR 6.20 (Study available for download here). The 123fahrschule share is currently trading at EUR 4. NuWays Equity Research is even more optimistic. Analysts expect the Company to generate revenue of EUR 28.7 million and EBITDA of EUR 2.5 million in 2025. Looking ahead to 2026, 123fahrschule should also benefit from new driving school legislation (reintroduction of online theory and inclusion of simulators in the training plan) and gain additional market share. Their target price is therefore EUR 7.90. This means that 123fahrschule shares offer almost 100% upside potential.
Boris Polenske, founder and co-CEO of 123fahrschule, is also sending a strong signal. He intends to purchase the share package held by media entrepreneur Dirk Ströer. This would increase his stake in 123fahrschule from around 10% to approximately 27%. Notably, Polenske is willing to pay a price of EUR 5.50 per share. The purchase price would thus be significantly above the current share price.
Rheinmetall: 2027 forecast too low?
As with 123fahrschule, April was also a golden month for Rheinmetall shareholders. Yesterday, the share price of Germany's largest defense contractor touched the EUR 1,800 mark. Those who followed the example of CEO Armin Theodor Papperger and bought Rheinmetall shares during the stock market turmoil on April 7 are now sitting on a book profit of around 80% – within six weeks.
According to mwb research, it could even reach EUR 2,000. Following the Defense & Security Conference, analysts confirmed their "Buy" recommendation. As Europe's leading defense company, Rheinmetall is benefiting from a structural supercycle. This is being driven by the "Triple R" transformation – restocking, re-equipping, and rebuilding. Rheinmetall impresses with its unrivalled vertical integration in artillery and rapid industrial ramp-up. Long-term growth is underpinned by strong NATO integration, progress in mega tenders in the US, and major European orders. The analysts, therefore, consider Rheinmetall's revenue and margin targets of EUR 20 billion and 18% by 2027 to be conservative Click here for the full study.
TUI: End of growth?
Like 123fahrschule and Rheinmetall, TUI shares were among the momentum stars in April. The tourism company's shares rose from EUR 5.86 to over EUR 7. However, investors reacted negatively to the quarterly figures, causing the share price to slide from EUR 7.60 to EUR 6.81. The forecast for adjusted EBIT in fiscal year 2025 was confirmed.
TUI increased its revenue by 1.5% to EUR 3.7 billion in the second quarter of the 2024/25 fiscal year. Adjusted EBIT was EUR -206.8 million (Q2 2023/24: EUR -188.7 million). However, it should be noted that the Easter holidays fell in Q3 this year. According to TUI, this resulted in EUR 32 million less EBIT in Q2. The booking figures for the critical 2025 summer season were negatively received by the market. TUI announced that bookings were 1% below the previous year's level, as customers were again booking more at short notice.
Most analysts cannot understand the sharp reaction in the share price. They have reaffirmed their "Buy" recommendations. The biggest TUI bull is the analyst at mwb research. He sees the fair value of the tourism group's shares at EUR 16. This would give the shares more than 100% upside potential. JPMorgan, with a price target of EUR 12, and Deutsche Bank, with EUR 11, also remain optimistic about TUI shares.
Bernstein Research is among the TUI bears. Following the quarterly figures, the analysts consider TUI shares to be only a "Market Perform" with a target price of EUR 7.90. In their view, the booking figures for the summer season could mean that TUI is losing market share, as competitors appear to be performing better.
The 123fahrschule share is increasingly becoming the focus of the capital market. Analysts believe that the price rally is far from over. The Company is just beginning to scale up in the highly fragmented driving school market. At Rheinmetall, the upside potential is becoming more limited, but momentum can continue to drive the share price, and the long-term growth prospects are excellent. At TUI, investors should keep a close eye on booking trends. The tourism company has successfully weathered the weak economic environment in Europe for a long time, but is that now over?
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