Almonty Industries, Rheinmetall, BYD – Profiting from the trade war with critical raw materials

Almonty Industries – Moves to the US

In an interview with "The Market Online", Sphene Capital analyst Peter Thilo Hasler emphasized the importance of tungsten for industries such as defense, artificial intelligence, and many others. Link to video The leading producer of this critical raw material is China, which is responsible for around 80% of global production. This dependency has led Europe and America to put tungsten on the list of critical metals. Due to the tariffs announced by Trump, a trade war could break out, and then the question is who will hold out the longest. Almonty Industries, with the largest tungsten mine outside of China, which is about to start production, has the potential to provide 43% of the supply outside of China and 7% of the global supply by 2027 after the mine has been ramped up.

The announcement by Almonty on January 19, in which the Company announced that it would relocate its headquarters from Canada to the United States in Delaware, fits in with the struggle to secure the supply of raw materials for the United States. Delaware was chosen because its legislation allows the Company to operate under Section 192 of the Canada Business Corporations Act. This provides legal clarity that helps both the Company and its shareholders. The reasons for the move are manifold. Among other things, there are new restrictions due to NDAA regulations in the US, increased US tariffs on imports from China, China's dominance, and export restrictions.

In addition, the Company expects regulatory and economic advantages through better access to US markets. A large proportion of Almonty's shareholders are already American. The stock will remain listed in Canada for the time being. Additional potential is the large molybdenum deposit on the Sangdong property, which could generate additional revenue for the Company. In addition, a tungsten refining facility for the production of tungsten oxide could extend the value chain and increase profits. Almonty's share price has been on a roll since September 2024, recently reaching a new multi-year high and currently trading at CAD 1.06.

Rheinmetall – Continues to generate orders

Due to its physical properties, tungsten plays an important role in the defense industry. Above all, its exceptional hardness and density make the critical raw material indispensable for the production of penetrating ammunition and ballistic protection systems. In addition, its heat resistance ensures that tungsten works reliably under extreme conditions. The strategic importance of the material is reinforced by its geopolitical implications: the long-simmering trade dispute between Western countries, China, and Russia is causing a rethink. Western countries are trying to make their supply more independent. Rheinmetall has not yet been directly affected by the trade war.

According to Rheinmetall, the total order backlog could rise to an impressive EUR 52 billion in 2024, an increase of 41% over the previous year. This has enabled the Company to maintain its position as one of the market leaders in the defense industry. Demand for ammunition, such as artillery shells, is particularly high, with plans to expand production at new facilities. At the same time, Rheinmetall is strengthening its market position in armored vehicles and defense systems by cooperating with partners such as Leonardo. This targeted expansion of capacities not only ensures growing business for the Company but also strategic resilience in the face of growing global investment in armaments.

Rheinmetall's medium-term prospects are attracting investor attention. The Company has set itself ambitious targets, with revenue of up to EUR 20 billion by 2027. Revenues of over EUR 12.6 billion could be generated as early as this year. Analysts see further potential in the share, particularly given the growth in global defense spending and political tensions worldwide. The share price has recently repeatedly reached new record levels and is currently trading at EUR 726.80.

BYD – Tungsten is becoming increasingly interesting for the electric mobility sector

Tungsten is becoming increasingly important in the field of e-mobility. The relevance of this material in battery technology is particularly noteworthy. Tungsten improves the safety and performance of modern batteries and makes them more efficient due to its high thermal tolerance. In addition, tungsten can be used to incorporate more nickel into battery cells, increasing the energy density and, thus, the range of electric vehicles. In addition to the advantage of a more extended range, charging times are also reduced when tungsten is used. This combination makes the metal an essential component for the future of electric mobility and the development of modern batteries.

BYD is expanding into Latin America and Asia. It entered the Ecuadorian market in January 2025 with the BYD Shark hybrid pickup, which had previously enjoyed good sales in Mexico. Last year, BYD exported over 10,000 units of this model. At the same time, the Company is planning to launch its first plug-in hybrid models in Japan, which is considered a very challenging market for external suppliers. These advances enable BYD to strengthen its position as a leading electric vehicle manufacturer and expand its international contacts further.

Europe is trying to defend itself against Chinese electric vehicles with tariffs of up to 45%, arguing that Chinese automakers have allegedly received subsidies from the government. BYD, together with Geely Automobile and SAIC Motor, is suing against these tariffs and they have since gained support from Tesla and BMW. The Munich-based company rejects this kind of protectionism, as it harms the business model of globally operating companies. According to a spokesperson for the European Union, they are willing to negotiate a solution. The stock is trending sideways and currently trading at EUR 33.41.

A possible trade war could ultimately escalate into a raw materials war. It is, therefore, important to establish alternative sources of supply. One of the options is Almonty Industries, which is relocating its headquarters from Canada to the US and has large tungsten and molybdenum deposits in South Korea. Rheinmetall is seeing a sharp increase in orders, which is reflected in a growing order backlog despite capacity expansions. BYD has no raw material problems but has to deal with tariffs that are hindering its expansion into the Western world.