Almonty Industries: Move to the US Gives Shares a Big Boost

China's Dominance is Nearly Unbreakable

China dominates the market for many specialty metals. Unfortunately for the US, these are nearly irreplaceable in many high-tech products and military goods. This is also the case with tungsten. The People's Republic controls about 80% of the global market. Together with its allies Russia and North Korea, this figure rises to about 95%. These are poor figures for the United States, which has been seeking to become less dependent on Beijing for several years now and has recognized specialty metals as its adversary's greatest bargaining chip.

Military Stockpiles Are Empty!

In the wake of the wars in Ukraine and the Persian Gulf, as well as the trade conflict instigated by Trump, these dependencies on China have come to light. Tungsten is a particular focus here, as it is virtually irreplaceable in the field of ammunition. It has the highest melting point of all metals (3422 °C) and an extremely high density. This makes it extremely scratch-resistant and hard, but brittle. That is why it is so widely used in the tool and metal industries, in armaments, and in medicine. As a result of the large amount of material expended in the Gulf, the US Army's stockpiles are running low. Replenishment is necessary after, and likely even during, the war.

Almonty Industries has now succeeded in establishing itself as an alternative to the opposing nations. The Canadians have recommissioned the historic Sangdong mine in South Korea. Production is currently being ramped up there. Sangdong was one of the world's largest tungsten mines until the 1990s, but was closed at the time due to its lack of profitability. The conflict between the superpowers now offers the company the opportunity to benefit from this. As the only major Western tungsten producer, the company owns what is arguably one of the world's most valuable mineral assets. Sangdong has now completed the first phase of construction and is producing concentrates. Once the second phase is completed in 2027, Sangdong could supply approximately 40% of global tungsten demand outside of China, according to the company.

Almonty Relocates

Almonty Industries has announced that it is relocating its corporate headquarters from Toronto to Dillon, Montana, in the US. This is a strategic move that follows the logic of operational expansion into the United States. In the fall of 2025, the company acquired the Gentung Browns Lake Tungsten Project, also located in Montana. This project could become Almonty's next tungsten mine. Production is scheduled to ramp up as early as the second half of 2026.

US Factor Helps Almonty

For investors, another factor is likely to play an important role. With the move, Almonty strengthens its operational and strategic footprint in the US, potentially improving access to US institutional capital, which has historically shown a bias toward domestic investments. Additionally, new rules will take effect in the US defense industry starting next year. The Department of Defense has decided that, starting January 1, 2027, US defense contractors may source tungsten and other metals exclusively from suppliers outside the Chinese supply chain. Furthermore, Almonty will receive a tariff exemption for tungsten products. The company has sufficient funds available for its expansion in the US. Cash on hand stood at approximately CAD 268 million at the turn of the year. Revenue is expected to rise to CAD 1 billion by 2028.

Stock Eyes All-Time High

Following the announcement of the move to the US, Almonty's stock has surged significantly. On Monday alone, it rose by one-sixth. The market's calculations are likely now factoring in potential funding from the US government. After all, the US government has not shied away in the past from investing heavily in companies through stock purchases, loans, or subsidies. Analysts at GBC Research see further potential and believe that the global tungsten market is undergoing structural changes. With its long-term supply contracts and amid rising commodity prices, Almonty is in a pole position. The analysts recommend buying the stock. Bank of America (BofA) is similarly bullish. The investment bank views Almonty Industries as the "leading Western vehicle" for tungsten and set a price target of USD 20. BofA analysts expect tungsten prices to settle at a permanently higher level due to Chinese export restrictions. The stock has made a statement with its recent surge and is not far from its all-time high of AUD 30.89.