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August 4th, 2022 | 10:50 CEST

Turnaround: TUI, Pathfinder Ventures, Lufthansa, Carnival - Shares for the Corona travel Summer of 2022

  • Tourism
  • Travel
  • Camping
Photo credits:

It is exciting this summer! Can one really get out of Germany by plane? Lufthansa had recently significantly increased its program but then cancelled over 2,000 flights. Baggage and security handling is bursting at the seams, and those frustrated with the train will have to plan a few more hours to arrive with the 9 Euro ticket. The Corona pandemic has completely disrupted the travel market, there is a shortage of staff everywhere, and now a strike by the pilots' union is looming. We are looking for opportunities for investors.

time to read: 4 minutes | Author: André Will-Laudien
ISIN: TUI AG NA O.N. | DE000TUAG000 , PATHFINDER VENTURES INC | CA70323P1071 , LUFTHANSA AG VNA O.N. | DE0008232125 , CARNIVAL PLC DL 1_66 | GB0031215220

Table of contents:

    Joe Bleackley, CEO, Pathfinder Ventures Inc.
    "[...] In addition to campsite fees, Pathfinder Ventures has put itself in a position to offer all of these sought-after camping solutions. The only thing they don't sell is the RV itself. [...]" Joe Bleackley, CEO, Pathfinder Ventures Inc.

    Full interview


    TUI - The share still resides in the cellar

    TUI is struggling with exceptional circumstances this year. First, there is the major Russian investor Mordashov, who has now moved his stake to the Virgin Islands because of sanctions. Then, in order to reduce its high debt, TUI carried out a capital increase twice in succession, which represented a major dilution for existing shareholders. Therefore, shareholders have great uncertainty about how the share price will fare.

    However, according to the industry association, the current summer and fall booking figures are good. Flight handling is probably also working much better at TUI than at its competitor Lufthansa. The travel behavior of the Germans is also experiencing an upgrade in the current inflation environment. Because after an evaluation of the booking behavior, the vacationers spend significantly more on their free time during the year. They spend, on average, 51% more for their hotel stay. In particular, they booked higher hotel categories and more all-inclusive meals. Also, the autumn vacations are already relatively well booked, according to the data.

    All these components are well represented in TUI's offering, so the travel group should be breathing a sigh of relief. Nevertheless, the share remains in the cellar at EUR 1.62; the all-time low was EUR 1.43. The inclined investor should wait for the figures before making a new investment; they will be announced on August 10. That should be really exciting.

    Pathfinder Ventures - This is how a relaxing vacation works

    An interesting travel stock can be found on the price list in Canada and Frankfurt with Pathfinder Ventures. The campground operator has developed a unique business concept for family-oriented travel in nature. Under the name Pathfinder Camp Resorts, a network of first-class, upscale and family-friendly RV parks and campgrounds is currently being created. They are located in nature-rich British Columbia, with expansion to other regions already in the planning stages.

    Strategically, the Company is capitalizing on the fast-growing market of Canadians who want to experience the great outdoors in an RV. In doing so, the Company is taking new approaches to attract and retain vacation seekers. Digital booking platforms, modern reservation systems and entertainment offerings for young and old were installed virtually overnight at historically established locations. Anyone wanting to travel in 2020 and 2021 could only do so with months of preparation, but Pathfinder was able to provide the solutions quite quickly.

    Many Europeans are also currently looking for attractive long-distance destinations to get away from the crisis situation in Europe, at least temporarily. In Corona Year 2020, there were 34 million overnight stays at campsites in Germany. In surveys, 28% of "campers" said they would combine it with long-distance destinations in the future. So in the current environment of high price increases in the hotel sector, domestic and intercontinental tourism in Canada is expected to grow. Thus, the signs at Pathfinder Ventures are clearly pointing to growth. The share is very favourable at CAD 0.09. The corresponding valuation is a manageable EUR 4 million.

    Lufthansa - Sheer chaos, all that is missing now is a strike

    Overbooked planes, long queues at the check-in counters and far too few staff. It is not only the traveller who stands in line. No, the suitcases from the last 50 landings are also piling up in the pick-up area with delays. Such conditions have not been seen for a long time. In its ballot, the pilots' union has already granted itself the right to strike. It will therefore be interesting to see what happens next for summer travellers.

    As a result of the grievances, millions of passengers have already taken to the Internet to file lawsuits to reclaim part of their travel expenses for non-performance or late performance - a lot of trouble for the corporate headquarters of the still struggling Lufthansa. If these conditions cannot be improved quickly, the German benchmark company in air traffic is threatened by losing its long-standing regular customers.

    A 41% share price loss in 36 months and only sitting 16% above the all-time low speaks volumes. Management should turn things around as quickly as possible because a new wave of Corona with new restrictions is looming in the fall. Lufthansa reports today on the first half of the year, which should provide information on the first chaos management costs and perhaps there will also be a new outlook.

    Carnival plc - Is the cruiser still salvageable?

    There is no good news from the cruise giant Carnival either. The share has halved on a 12-month view and is trading at EUR 8.37, just above its all-time low. Carnival closed the past quarter with sales totaling GBP 1.96 billion. Analysts had assumed an average of GBP 2.13 billion. By comparison, the travel company still turned over GBP 16.4 billion in the pre-Corona year, so capacity is currently only about 50%.

    In addition, the Company is heavily indebted, as the pandemic has caused its equity reserves to shrink drastically. As a result, the EC ratio fell from 61% in 2015 to a meager 23% in 2021. Liabilities are over GBP 30 billion, and the stock is valued at just under GBP 8 billion. In order to pay off debts, there was also a capital increase worth billions at the end of July. One can only wish the British that the measures will bear fruit and that cruising will quickly get back on track. However, the number of people who reject cruising for climate protection reasons is also increasing more and more. The scolded share has become a casino stock due to permanent losses, and the industry as a whole is also under pressure.

    The travel industry is experiencing its biggest upheaval in decades. Despite high inflation, however, citizens do not want to do without the most beautiful time of the year. TUI, Lufthansa and Carnival are under constant pressure due to a lack of capital and operating losses. Pathfinder Ventures has a brand new concept that is likely to take off in the near future.

    Conflict of interest

    Pursuant to §85 of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG), we point out that Apaton Finance GmbH as well as partners, authors or employees of Apaton Finance GmbH (hereinafter referred to as "Relevant Persons") currently hold or hold shares or other financial instruments of the aforementioned companies and speculate on their price developments. In this respect, they intend to sell or acquire shares or other financial instruments of the companies (hereinafter each referred to as a "Transaction"). Transactions may thereby influence the respective price of the shares or other financial instruments of the Company.
    In this respect, there is a concrete conflict of interest in the reporting on the companies.

    In addition, Apaton Finance GmbH is active in the context of the preparation and publication of the reporting in paid contractual relationships.
    For this reason, there is also a concrete conflict of interest.
    The above information on existing conflicts of interest applies to all types and forms of publication used by Apaton Finance GmbH for publications on companies.

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    Der Autor

    André Will-Laudien

    Born in Munich, he first studied economics and graduated in business administration at the Ludwig-Maximilians-University in 1995. As he was involved with the stock market at a very early stage, he now has more than 30 years of experience in the capital markets.

    About the author

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