Close menu

July 21st, 2022 | 11:17 CEST

Turnaround stocks: BASF, Aspermont, TUI, Deutsche Bank - Breakout with significant momentum?

  • Turnaround
  • Digitization
  • Technology
  • Investments
Photo credits:

The recent bear market seems to be slowing somewhat. In addition to a good market technique, there are more and more indications that a gas delivery by Russia will likely take place after all. But one can never be sure about this topic. Too much East-West propaganda stands in the way of truthful reporting, and both sides of the conflict use every available news item for their own purposes. In any case, the stock market had to react after a strong technical oversell yesterday. It went up by 3% in just 30 minutes, led by the scolded BASF. TUI and Deutsche Bank also got some air under their wings again. Where do we go from here?

time to read: 4 minutes | Author: André Will-Laudien

Table of contents:

    BASF - The chemical giant is worried about gas

    Currently, the information situation resembles an interesting potpourri of different broadcasting stations. First, it is said that Russian gas supplies will be restored without restrictions, and then comes the denial that important release papers have not yet been sent. All this shadow-boxing drives the investor crazy because the BASF share jumps by 5% at one point, then drops again by 3.5%. However, it seems that a sustainable sell-off level has now been reached. Of course, the sword of Damocles of continued warfare remains a permanent burden.

    The Ludwigshafen-based Company is not commenting at all on the current situation because management has long known that losing gas, an important energy source, would lead to considerable burdens on production. Alternative energy procurement measures are currently being examined, but they will take several years to implement. For example, MAN is presently discussing whether part of the waste heat and heating requirements can be met by installing a gigantic heat pump. The economic feasibility study will continue until the end of 2022.

    From an analytical point of view, BASF shares are currently valued at a P/E ratio of 7.5 and are trading below their book value of around EUR 45. In a long-term comparison, the book values were often the lowest points of any corrections. But that doesn't have to hold this time, especially since Germany's largest energy consumer relies on a lot of gas for its production. Around 50,000 products are made from gas, many of them from BASF. We wait and see!

    You can also read our detailed report on BASF SE at:

    Aspermont Ltd. - Information around the globe

    Aspermont Ltd. from Perth is all about the recipient-oriented distribution of information. The Company is a media and fintech company in one. In addition to relevant information from the commodities sector in print or online, Aspermont has also had a capital markets department for a good year, which deals with bringing together companies seeking capital and suitable investors. With the help of a variable platform, it matches different interests and arranges financing on a commission basis.

    The gradual digitization of the business has led to increasing revenues and user numbers at Aspermont. As the business raises a certain fixed cost block, the operating margin increases with each new customer. Also, the many events, which are very important as a network extension, are now taking place again after the removal of the Corona barriers. It creates good secondary revenue for the organizer, but in the medium term, it is the basis for many new relationships.

    On the operational side, Aspermont has made good gains again in recent quarters. In May, the latest figures were available. The network now consists of 8 million addresses and 3.7 million active online users. By establishing an end-to-end DaaS system, the Company succeeds in combining content and services at the highest level of aggregation. The revenue related to content has thus increased by an average of 20% (CAGR) in the last 5 years. The internal return on investment increased by 200% in the same period. The share leads a quiet existence and can be bought in Germany at EUR 0.014. The low share price is due to the usual high number of shares issued in Australia.

    TUI and Deutsche Bank - First signs of life after the sell-off

    When discussing turnaround stocks, Deutsche Bank and TUI appear on the radar. Both stocks have been through a sell-off that has taken between 20% and 50% of their share price value over the last 12 months. We look at the fundamentals and current market technicals for both.

    Deutsche Bank is currently undergoing a turnaround. However, the war in Ukraine with all its consequences calls important financial targets into question. Whether the Group can still achieve them is uncertain. In addition to increasing earnings, an important centerpiece of the restructuring is to become much more efficient. But to achieve this, costs would first have to fall significantly. After the integration of Postbank, it seemed logical to simplify the IT systems in the entire Group, but this is probably not so trivial and will lead to considerable delays and additional costs of EUR 70 million. The stock market was perhaps hoping for a quick implementation, especially since interest margins are now flowing back into the Company operationally. Technically, the share price must first rise above EUR 9.40, and then the way to EUR 12 is clear for the time being. Collect at the lows!

    We are somewhat more skeptical about TUI. The most recent capital increase at EUR 2.65 was very negatively received by the market. The share initially fell to EUR 1.43. Despite repayments to the German government, the debt ratio is still immense. In the 2021 balance sheet, borrowed funds exceeded total assets for the first time in history, sending equity into negative territory. One can only hope that with the hot summer, there will be enough of a surplus to bring this ratio back into balance. Given a return of Corona in the fall, however, there seems to be only a small window of opportunity for rising prices. Even if the visually low price is tempting, technically, the situation only improves from EUR 2.50 upwards. Very speculative!

    The NASDAQ seems to have ended its sell-off for the time being, which allows the DAX to make some important recovery moves to the upside. BASF is one of the scolded standard stocks, which could make up 30% if the gas supply issue is positively decided. Deutsche Bank and TUI are still very speculative. With Aspermont, the good operating performance should soon be reflected in the price.

    Conflict of interest

    Pursuant to §85 of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG), we point out that Apaton Finance GmbH as well as partners, authors or employees of Apaton Finance GmbH (hereinafter referred to as "Relevant Persons") currently hold or hold shares or other financial instruments of the aforementioned companies and speculate on their price developments. In this respect, they intend to sell or acquire shares or other financial instruments of the companies (hereinafter each referred to as a "Transaction"). Transactions may thereby influence the respective price of the shares or other financial instruments of the Company.
    In this respect, there is a concrete conflict of interest in the reporting on the companies.

    In addition, Apaton Finance GmbH is active in the context of the preparation and publication of the reporting in paid contractual relationships.
    For this reason, there is also a concrete conflict of interest.
    The above information on existing conflicts of interest applies to all types and forms of publication used by Apaton Finance GmbH for publications on companies.

    Risk notice

    Apaton Finance GmbH offers editors, agencies and companies the opportunity to publish commentaries, interviews, summaries, news and the like on These contents are exclusively for the information of the readers and do not represent any call to action or recommendations, neither explicitly nor implicitly they are to be understood as an assurance of possible price developments. The contents do not replace individual expert investment advice and do not constitute an offer to sell the discussed share(s) or other financial instruments, nor an invitation to buy or sell such.

    The content is expressly not a financial analysis, but a journalistic or advertising text. Readers or users who make investment decisions or carry out transactions on the basis of the information provided here do so entirely at their own risk. No contractual relationship is established between Apaton Finance GmbH and its readers or the users of its offers, as our information only refers to the company and not to the investment decision of the reader or user.

    The acquisition of financial instruments involves high risks, which can lead to the total loss of the invested capital. The information published by Apaton Finance GmbH and its authors is based on careful research. Nevertheless, no liability is assumed for financial losses or a content-related guarantee for the topicality, correctness, appropriateness and completeness of the content provided here. Please also note our Terms of use.

    Der Autor

    André Will-Laudien

    Born in Munich, he first studied economics and graduated in business administration at the Ludwig-Maximilians-University in 1995. As he was involved with the stock market at a very early stage, he now has more than 30 years of experience in the capital markets.

    About the author

    Related comments:

    Commented by André Will-Laudien on September 22nd, 2023 | 07:20 CEST

    Recalculation! These are the bare figures: TUI, Saturn Oil + Gas, Deutsche Bank - Buy prices non-stop!

    • Mining
    • Oil
    • travel
    • Investments
    • Banking

    Companies do not always have good figures in their baggage. Analysts listen very carefully to the words of those in charge. Often, it is only a minor sentence that changes entire valuations. TUI is slowly approaching pre-COVID figures. Saturn Oil & Gas must backtrack slightly because of substantial forest fires in Alberta, and Deutsche Bank aims to finalize the Postbank project in 2023. All three stocks offer good buying opportunities because the long-term prospects are quite convincing.


    Commented by Nico Popp on September 19th, 2023 | 08:25 CEST

    Interest rates at a high - What to consider now: Deutsche Bank, Vonovia, Viva Gold

    • Mining
    • Gold
    • Investments
    • RealEstate

    The European Central Bank (ECB) recently raised interest rates by 25 basis points. For many market observers, this could mean that the benchmark interest rate within the Eurozone has reached its peak. In the US, the signs also point to a pause in interest rates. Here, we explain what this means for various asset classes and how investors should navigate the high-interest rate environment. Additionally, we will explore an interest-free alternative that has its merits for various reasons.


    Commented by Armin Schulz on September 18th, 2023 | 07:40 CEST

    Deutsche Bank, Globex Mining, Vonovia - What are the consequences of the ECB's latest interest rate hike?

    • Mining
    • Gold
    • Investments
    • RealEstate

    After a long period of zero interest rate policy, the ECB is stepping up the fight against inflation and last week raised interest rates for the 10th time in a row. The effects are very different. For banks, on the one hand, profit may increase via higher interest rates, but it may also decrease if fewer loans can be made. For commodities, the rise in interest rates in Europe could lead to a stronger US dollar. However, this is rather unlikely, as interest rates in the US are still higher. For the real estate sector, rising interest rates are poison. Loans are becoming more expensive, and thus, demand for real estate is falling. Today, we look at one company from each sector.