12. May 2021 | 10:03 CET
TUI, Triumph Gold, TeamViewer - With timing to success!
Where is it worth investing now? In TUI - it is publishing its half-year figures today and giving an outlook - a re-opening play. Or are the gold bulls taking off now and helping gold stocks like Triumph Gold to spectacular gains in a very short time? Or is the time now ripe for a rapid countermovement after a sharp price correction in the home office specialist TeamViewer?
time to read: 4 minutes by Carsten Mainitz
"[...] Both the geology and the infrastructure around the project make for a very attractive cost structure. We expect to be able to produce at 50% of the current gold price. [...]" Bill Guy, Chairman, Theta Gold Mines Limited
TUI AG - Before the numbers is after the numbers - the outlook is what counts!
Today TUI presents its half-year figures, which many investors have been waiting for. However, what should really move the share price today and also in the coming weeks and months is the vaccination progress, easing lockdown and the way back to normality, i.e., the possibility to travel again - in short, the outlook.
The past few months have taken their toll on the Group. Without government aid, both equity and debt, it would no longer exist today. But relief and confidence are increasingly spreading. Investors are once again more optimistic about the future of Europe's largest travel group. The successful placement of a convertible bond with a volume of EUR 400 million at the beginning of April underscores this. The paper was oversubscribed by a factor of around 2. The unsubordinated and unsecured 5% convertible bond matures in 2028 and represents an important step in the Group's refinancing. The conversion price is EUR 5.3631, which corresponds to a conversion premium of 25% at the placement date.
In recent days, statements, claims, and plans have been piling up, suggesting that in large parts of Europe, it will soon be possible to travel again with relative ease. Important questions are: Will the EU vaccination passport come in June and how differently are European countries handling the relaxations? To boost tourism, Italy wants to allow travel without the current short quarantine before the end of May. Travelers from Europe who are fully vaccinated should be able to enter the country more easily as early as mid-May, Italy's Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio announced last weekend. The British tourism industry has called on its government to open up vacation destinations more widely. As of May 17, foreign travel will once again be allowed for Britons, but only 12 countries, including Israel and Portugal, are on a "green list." No quarantine will be required when returning from these countries. However, Germany and almost all EU countries are not on the "green list."
The Corona restrictions have drastically slowed down domestic tourism in Germany in the first quarter. The figures of the Federal Statistical Office, which were published yesterday, proved this. The number of overnight stays by guests in the first three months of 2021 was down by more than two-thirds for the same period last year. This domestic market is also crucial for TUI. Last weekend, German Health Minister Jens Spahn commented, "within the EU, travel is not expected to depend on vaccination. Even with testing, people will be able to travel well throughout Europe." In a postscript, he promoted vacationing in Germany. In summary: positive outlook = rising share price.
TRIUMPH GOLD CORP - When will the knot burst?
While the stock markets are currently in short correction phases, the gold price is robust at over USD 1,800 per ounce. Although we are still a long way from the 2020 high, the environment is favorable for gold investments. One rule of thumb has almost always proven itself: in phases of fear and uncertainty, gold gains value as a crisis currency. With good quality gold stocks, investors are on the winning side.
It is to this group of promising investments that we include the Canadian exploration Company Triumph Gold. Triumph Gold is focused on developing the Freegold Mountain gold-copper project in the Yukon Territory, a very mining-friendly jurisdiction in northwestern Canada. The project covers a 200 km² road-accessible portion of the Big Creek Fault, a structural system directly related to gold-bearing porphyry copper, epithermal and related polymetallic veins and skarn mineralization. Currently, Triumph Gold's technical team is in the final stages of planning an exploration program. The program will focus on resource expansion and testing new targets at Revenue, Nucleus, and the Melissa Zone.
Sometimes it takes longer for the market to discover the potential of a share. But as we all know, the profit is in the purchase. The market value of Triumph Gold is modest at around CAD 24 million. The fact that the Canadian commodity giant Teck Resources is among the shareholders should additionally convince investors.
TEAMVIEWER AG - Significant price correction
At the height of the Corona Crisis, the 2019 stock market newcomer was hailed as a winner of the pandemic. As a result, the share price was pushed to a high in the EUR 55 range. The stock is still around EUR 31, which currently values the Goeppingen-based Company at EUR 6.4 billion.
TeamViewer is one of the world's leading providers of so-called remote connectivity solutions. The software-based solutions enable remote access, support, control and collaboration functions on computers. The "TeamViewer" solution has already been activated on more than two billion devices.
In the spring, the Company had lowered margin forecasts by 6 percentage points to 49% to 51% due to the high expenses. The costly sponsorship agreement with Manchester United soccer club is the main reason here. Following sales of around EUR 460 million in the past fiscal year, the figure is expected to rise to around EUR 1 billion by 2023. From 2025, the Company expects additional revenues of EUR 150 million per year from marketing activities. However, two recent smaller acquisitions, that of the Munich-based 3D visualization innovator Viscopic and that of the Portuguese digital design agency Hapibot, have so far not been able to stop the downward trend of the share. Overall, analysts continue to rate the stock positively.