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March 29th, 2022 | 12:18 CEST

TUI, ThyssenKrupp, Desert Gold, Barrick Gold - Shares with 100% turnaround potential!

  • Gold
  • travel
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The armed conflict in Ukraine continues to drive inflation. In the US, inflation was recently reported at plus 7.9%, and the yield on the 30-year government bond rose above the magic 2.5% mark last week. For market experts, this heralds the long-term turnaround in interest rates. The Federal Reserve also sees the need for further interest rate steps to ensure monetary stability. These are conceivably bad conditions for the economy because the supply chain issue has already caused growth rates to plummet. Some economists see a slump in the western industrial nations of 4-6% as possible. For precious metals, this recession scenario could be the turning point. We select some promising stocks.

time to read: 4 minutes | Author: André Will-Laudien

Table of contents:

    Jared Scharf, CEO, Desert Gold Ventures Inc.
    "[...] Our SMSZ project is the largest contiguous land package of any exploration company in the region at 400km2 and overlays a 38km portion of the prolific Senegal Mali Shear Zone. [...]" Jared Scharf, CEO, Desert Gold Ventures Inc.

    Full interview


    Gold very dynamic - Barrick & Co shortly before the breakout

    When the crisis broke out at the end of February, gold shot up by USD 150 in a 5-day movement. As if out of nowhere, it was there - the need for hedging. Investors remembered the value-preserving effect of precious metals and put gold, platinum and silver up by 5-10%. In parallel, the well-known gold protagonists Barrick, Newmont, Agnico and Harmony each rose by 10-20%. Here, the leverage effect of the mining stocks came into play. However, as with the precious metals themselves, the mines also corrected similarly by 10-20% as the technical correction in the commodities sector set in. Within 48 hours, the technically overbought condition was leveled out again, and the yellow metal fell back to USD 1,920. However, from a chart perspective, both precious metals and mine producers are on the verge of a major breakout. Stay invested.

    Desert Gold Ventures - A promising resource estimate is now available

    Canadian explorer Desert Gold Ventures (DAU) still has a little way to go before production. In early March, there was a NI 43-101 standard prospective resource estimate of 769,200 ounces of gold. That was based on the definition of a proven mineral resource of 310,300 ounces of gold at the Mogoyafara South gold deposit of the SMSZ project.

    The Canadians' flagship project is the 410 sq km SMSZ project in Mali, close to the previously mentioned Barrick Gold. The next steps in 2022 include an exploration program comprising approximately 20,000 meters of drilling. The necessary financing steps will be carried out in a time-dependent manner according to the required work plan. The focus will be on the Mogoyafara South and Gourbassi West North zones, as these two gold-bearing systems suggest the largest deposits in the concession area.

    The current 150 million DAU shares are trading between CAD 0.12-0.14. At this point, the Desert price has already managed to break out strongly to the upside once. This time, too, the chances are not bad because the increased gold price could also give the deposits in the ground a higher valuation. If the gold price increased by about only USD 200, the expected appreciation potential would be 100-150%. So an initial investment at this low level makes perfect sense.

    TUI - First Corona, now a senseless war

    Tour operator TUI has many stress points, which is why the share price is also trading near its long-term lows. On the one hand, the business has been affected by the Corona Crisis for several months. On the other hand, the Company's financing depends on a stable relationship with major Russian shareholder Alexei Mordashov, who holds 34% of TUI.

    Shortly before sanctions against Russian oligarchs took effect, Mordashov transferred nearly 29.8% of his shares to a Caribbean holding company called Ondero, which in turn is owned by Mordashov's wife, Marina. As a result, the shares, believed to be locked up, could also return to the market. An unpleasant sword of Damocles for TUI if the Russian oligarch had to liquidate ad hoc because of the freezing of other assets.

    Such deductions are still speculative. The fact remains that the warlike actions in Eastern Europe are also dampening booking activities in the travel business. The exploding fuel costs also have a negative impact, as they are fully reflected in airfares. Not a good set-up for TUI, but there's no reason to bury one's head in the sand. Because technically, it looks like a long-term bottoming out if the zone at EUR 1.80 to EUR 2.05 is not sustainably undercut.

    ThyssenKrupp - Focus now shifts to the marine division

    In our last analysis on, we saw good progress for ThyssenKrupp in the Group's restructuring and a long-term improvement in the figures. But now ThyssenKrupp is shocking us by suspending its cash flow forecast. The reason: Strong uncertainties in the steel and automotive businesses due to permanently disrupted supply chains!

    As a result, the stock has slumped by 10% and given back the recent recovery gains. Analysts at DZ Bank see a sharp increase in operating risks, have revised their earnings estimates and lowered the price target from EUR 14 to EUR 12. LBBW is equally displeased, having adjusted the fair value from EUR 10.30 to EUR 7.00.

    In the current environment, the plan to spin off the steel business is unlikely to work out, but we do see a reason for hope due to the improvement in the marine division (TKMS). TKMS has capacity utilization for years to come; the shipyard is building two submarines for the German navy and four more for the Norwegian navy. The order volume is around EUR 5.5 billion, but the planned delivery will not be until 2029. That puts the focus back on the insolvent MV shipyards in Wismar and Rostock. Here ThyssenKrupp could show its colors to the insolvency administrator and buy additional capacity at a favorable price.

    The TKA share should be kept on the radar; perhaps the Group can tap into the EUR 100 billion budget of the German armed forces. It is currently trading at 50%, well below book value and technically, the EUR 7.50 to EUR 8.20 zone forms strong support. It should remain exciting around ThyssenKrupp, even if the occasion truly offers no reason to rejoice.

    The geopolitical uncertainty is creating a high need for security among investors. Precious metals have historically proven that they can fulfill this objective. In addition to the standard stocks, explorers such as Desert Gold can also make sense if the measurement data promise high deposits. TUI and ThyssenKrupp are currently interesting turnaround speculations.

    Conflict of interest

    Pursuant to §85 of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG), we point out that Apaton Finance GmbH as well as partners, authors or employees of Apaton Finance GmbH (hereinafter referred to as "Relevant Persons") may hold shares or other financial instruments of the aforementioned companies in the future or may bet on rising or falling prices and thus a conflict of interest may arise in the future. The Relevant Persons reserve the right to buy or sell shares or other financial instruments of the Company at any time (hereinafter each a "Transaction"). Transactions may, under certain circumstances, influence the respective price of the shares or other financial instruments of the Company.

    In addition, Apaton Finance GmbH is active in the context of the preparation and publication of the reporting in paid contractual relationships.

    For this reason, there is a concrete conflict of interest.

    The above information on existing conflicts of interest applies to all types and forms of publication used by Apaton Finance GmbH for publications on companies.

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    Der Autor

    André Will-Laudien

    Born in Munich, he first studied economics and graduated in business administration at the Ludwig-Maximilians-University in 1995. As he was involved with the stock market at a very early stage, he now has more than 30 years of experience in the capital markets.

    About the author

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