March 4th, 2022 | 10:45 CET
TUI, Aspermont, Lufthansa - Hard hit by the Ukraine crisis, but there is hope!
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Born in Munich, he first studied economics and graduated in business administration at the Ludwig-Maximilians-University in 1995. As he was involved with the stock market at a very early stage, he now has more than 30 years of experience in the capital markets.
TUI - The major Russian shareholder withdraws
Russian money is invested mainly in the West. Whether it is soccer clubs, hotels, real estate or industrial holdings, investors from the East can be found everywhere. That is understandable because Western investments are not only beautiful, they usually increase in value and please the investor. The situation is not quite the case with Alexei Mordashov's TUI share. The investor from the East had to increase his commitment several times; TUI cannot complain about his longstanding loyalty.
Because of the current precarious situation, even for billionaires, the Russian billionaire is reacting consistently and is leaving the Group's supervisory board of his own free will. In doing so, he is ahead of the EU authorities because the sanctions aim primarily to prevent Mr. Mordashov from disposing of his TUI shares or withdrawing his funds on an ad hoc basis. A sale on the stock exchange would be a disaster for TUI, as it would cause the already low share price to tumble and make future refinancing much more difficult. The Russian billionaire has been a shareholder in the Hanover company for around 15 years. With about a third of the shares, he is the largest single shareholder in the tourism giant.
It is not yet known how the travel group now intends to deal with its friendly majority shareholder in the long term. What is essential for the time being is that the shares cannot be traded. Meanwhile, things are going well operationally, and bookings for the important summer season are picking up and have even been above the level of the pre-crisis weeks of February 2019 since the beginning of February, according to the German Travel Association (DRV). This statement is very optimistic and gives courage. From a chart perspective, all that remains is to hope that the November low of EUR 2.25 will not be lit up again so quickly. Keep watch!
Aspermont Ltd - High-quality information via needs analysis
Aspermont Ltd from Perth, a media and fintech company, has a much more rounded approach. Aspermont's core business is still print-oriented in the form of regular publications for the mining sector, but it is also highly modern, providing data services in its XaaS model.
As it stands, Aspermont is the leading media services provider to the global commodities industry in B2B, distributing high-quality content to a growing global clientele. This versatile model can scale to serve new businesses in new countries and languages at any time. The increasing size of the paying audience has opened up an opportunity for monetization of data, which the Company is now gradually tapping.
At the annual meeting, CEO Alex Kent uses his opportunities to better explain the success of Aspermont's business model. As an information company, its core business is the global dissemination of news, research and data for the mining, energy and agricultural industries. Its services are used by 4 million people and are tailored precisely to current customer needs. As a result, Aspermont can generate new and relevant content from industry leaders and key stakeholders. Analysis of reader behavior helps identify new trends and respond dynamically. Continuous adaptation requires both innovation and organizational flexibility.
Aspermont is committed to rapid change in industries that generate 19% of global GDP and, together with their supply chains, significantly impact the world's population. A key revenue driver is scaling the business, as each new customer increases the revenue base, but this does not necessarily mean an increase in costs. The operating trend is convincing, as revenues and profits increased by 10% in the first quarter. The share price has suffered somewhat in the Ukraine sell-off. The liquid stock can be purchased in Australia at AUD 0.022 or in Germany at around EUR 0.014.
Lufthansa - Burdened in the short term, taking off in the medium term
Warlike activities lead to fewer flights and reduce the willingness to travel. Many business appointments are being shifted back to the online world; we already had a similar situation at the beginning of the pandemic in spring 2019. As a result, the Lufthansa share had to lose a lot of ground and lost a good 20% in just 2 weeks. But investors should not immediately throw in the towel. Today, the figures for the last quarter were published.
In the second Corona year 2021, the Lufthansa Group significantly reduced its loss compared to 2020. Thanks to a record profit in the cargo division and a noticeable recovery in the passenger business, the operating loss on the bottom line fell by two-thirds to around EUR 2.3 billion. Adjusted for the Group's restructuring costs, including the elimination of thousands of jobs, the loss would have been almost EUR 600 million lower. Despite the recovery in 2021, Lufthansa is still a long way from its pre-pandemic business figures. The Group counted around 47 million passengers in 2021 - roughly 29% more than in the first Corona year, but almost 100 million fewer than in the pre-crisis year of 2019. At EUR 16.8 billion, revenue was a quarter higher than in 2020 but fell far short of the EUR 36.4 billion recorded in the pre-crisis period.
In itself, the crane airline expected "a strong travel year in 2022," with a load factor for Europe almost at pre-crisis levels. However, analysts' expected forecast of a return to profits after two years of billion-dollar losses failed to materialize from management - mainly due to uncertainty about the consequences of developments in Ukraine. The LHA share price initially fell by 8% to EUR 6.10 after the presentation of the figures. However, if the EUR 5.50 mark holds, the sky would be blue again for further climbs towards EUR 11 if the EUR 8.5 line is crossed. Assuming a tangible end to the crisis, we believe in this scenario in the medium term.
The Ukraine crisis keeps the world on tenterhooks and fuels bitterness. The mood on the stock markets is also visibly depressed. Nobody wants to take significant risks. The daily increase in energy prices is producing economic fears for the future. In this environment, travel and transport companies are left on the sidelines for the time being. In comparison, Aspermont operates independently of the crisis and very profitably and overall offers a favorable risk-reward ratio at this level.
Conflict of interest
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