December 21st, 2021 | 13:54 CET
Troilus Gold, Valneva, Moderna, BioNTech - Where will these stocks be in 2022?
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"[...] We can make a big increase in value with little capital. [...]" David Mason, Managing Director, CEO, NewPeak Metals Ltd.
Born in Munich, he first studied economics and graduated in business administration at the Ludwig-Maximilians-University in 1995. As he was involved with the stock market at a very early stage, he now has more than 30 years of experience in the capital markets.
Canada - Good prospects in the raw materials sector
Overall, Canada has come through the pandemic well. With an early border closure, the country stifled tourism, but the domestic raw materials industry was able to profit from the increased prices. In 2020, Canada's gross domestic product was around USD 1.64 trillion, and the figure for 2021 is forecast at around USD 1.88 trillion. That is a considerable increase of 14.6% - there aren't many states that can show that much upside in 2020 after the Corona Crisis. Incidence was around 125 in mid-December with a 77% vaccination rate, so Canada is not doing badly internationally either. A showstopper could, of course, occur due to the Omicron variant, yet conditions remain good.
Troilus Gold - This project makes spirits high
In the state of Quebec, we come across a historic property called Troilus Gold, which has been well developed under new ownership in 2021. The project is driven by an excellent management team around Justin Reid. All proposed directors enjoyed 99% approval at the recent AGM.
The precious metals and copper project is located northeast of the Val-d'Or district and produced 2 million ounces of gold and nearly 70,000 tonnes of copper between 1996 and 2010. The new operating company is currently gearing up to build on the historic successes and is consistently advancing its exploration program. Drilling is now underway at a rate of approximately 7,000 meters per month. We expect a new resource estimate in the first quarter of 2022, followed by a pre-feasibility study (PFS).
Troilus is one of the best performing North American copper and gold projects in recent years. The stock is currently trading between CAD 0.70 and 0.80, reflecting a market capitalization of CAD 140 million. The current "tax loss season" is instead influencing the price formation on the downside at the moment. However, expect a quick comeback towards CAD 1.00 when the first progress reports arrive in 2022.
Valneva - Waiting for the EMA verdict
The share price of the dead vaccine developer Valneva is capricious. The head of French vaccine developer Valneva let slip last week in an interview with Reuters news agency that the Company is currently sitting at many negotiating tables at once. According to Lingelbach, the Company is negotiating supply agreements with several partners for its VLA2001 inactivated vaccine, expected to receive its approval in the EU in the first quarter of 2022.
Meanwhile, the dead vaccine developer has already been able to sell the first batches of its Corona vaccine in the Middle East under a preliminary agreement. The Kingdom of Bahrain wants to purchase one million doses of VLA2001. However, Valneva is currently still waiting for the Bahraini National Health Authority (NHRA), which is likely to follow the vote of the European EMA. According to Valneva management, the Company is already thinking about delivery in the first quarter of 2022. With this news, the share price climbed back above EUR 27 at the beginning of the week but then fell back to around EUR 25. Keep a "permanent watch" position here; this can still become cheerful due to current news!
Moderna versus BioNTech - Who will make the race in 2022?
Moderna and BioNTech were prominent stock market stars in 2021 with triple-digit share price performances. They were among the first companies to successfully develop a COVID-19 vaccine. Almost two years after the pandemic outbreak, we look at the fundamental key figures of the vaccine producers and assess the outlook.
Moderna is up 124% annually, correcting 40% from the high. According to analyst consensus, sales will rise to USD 20.8 billion in 2022, so Moderna trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 6. The 2022 P/E ratio puts it at about 16, with earnings per share of USD 27.12. Technically, the stock is above the 50-day line, but the long-term 200-day moving average at USD 300 represents a limit.
For BioNTech, we see a year-end performance of plus 166%. Again, the correction is a scant 40% from the top. According to analyst consensus, BioNTech will achieve sales of USD 15.5 billion in 2022, so the 2022 price-to-sales ratio is only 4.4. With estimated earnings of USD 32 per share, the P/E is also only 8.8 - that is not expensive for a biotech stock!
Of course, both stocks remain highly interesting in the pandemic if the Omicron and follow-on variants are to be brought under control. Potential value drivers will also be the new therapeutic areas of mRNA technology that will be developed in the future. Whoever is ahead here will probably deliver a better return picture in 2022. BioNTech is the clear first mover and the Company with the greatest advance praise.
Forecasting biotech companies requires detailed knowledge and the right timing in terms of potential approvals or even rejections. One must pay attention to technical trend lines here; they often reveal more than a plethora of news. In the case of Troilus Gold, investors are buying a very interesting project in Quebec at a reasonable price.
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