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January 13th, 2022 | 13:45 CET

Triumph Gold, Delivery Hero, HelloFresh - Exploding like TeamViewer!

  • Gold
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Inflation is galloping, so the central banks will have to react soon. In the matter of COVID-19, an endemic is expected after the overcoming of Omicron. That would likely bring a boom to the economies. The high volatility on the capital markets has now manifested itself, and the basis of the argument changes almost daily. For us, it is a suitable opportunity to take a look at highly volatile investment vehicles. Actually, the sails are set, but inflation can still dash the party - but that would again be a buying argument for the precious metals!

time to read: 4 minutes | Author: André Will-Laudien

Table of contents:

    Inflation - Turkey and Argentina can sing a song

    Precious metals are considered the oldest currency in the world, and they play a significant role in asset protection today. They are the first choice alongside equities in times of rising currency devaluation and fears about currency stability. Turkey has seen its currency devalue by more than 70% since 2020, with inflation consequently rising to over 36% in November. However, the record holder in terms of inflation is Argentina, with over 50%. It is therefore not surprising that the physical demand for precious metals is increasing. It is the only way for people in these countries to keep their depreciating cash reserves safe.

    Triumph Gold - Focus on the Yukon Territory

    People have lived in Yukon for at least 12 millennia. For this time, the ancestors of today's Indians can be traced, who belong to the Athabascan language family. They lived nomadically until the middle of the 20th century, spending the brutal winters in the same villages. At first, the fur trade was the main focus, then gold discoveries at the Klondike brought more than 100,000 immigrants to the sparsely populated area for a short time. Today the Yukoners live mainly from tourism, raw materials and small services. Hunting plays only a minor role.

    The Canadian explorer Triumph Gold Corp. has identified some interesting properties in the Yukon Territory. The flagship project hosts three world-class mineral occurrences in the extensive section of the Big Creek fault zone with gold grades of 0.76 grams per ton. Current estimates are approximately 2 million gold equivalent ounces, with additional drill results expected in 2022. The search algorithms have also been supported by artificial intelligence since mid-2021; this significantly improves the data-driven hit accuracy in the target area.

    In 2021, Triumph secured the Big Creek property, which is expected to host gold and industrially recoverable copper. Historically, many successes have been demonstrated within the Dawson Range. TIG shares are currently trading at a manageable CAD 0.12 to CAD 0.14, valuing the resources in the ground at CAD 17.5 million. Interesting!

    Delivery Hero - Finally in the black

    It has been an impressive rollercoaster ride. Berlin-based startup Delivery Hero launched about 10 years ago to great attention. With all sorts of venture capital and slick marketing, the Company grew decently. Pretty much everywhere, except for the German home market of all places, it was able to hold its own against the competition, often even taking over the market leadership. The Corona pandemic really played into the business model's hands.

    Delivery Hero now wants to finally reach the break-even point this year: In the fourth quarter of 2022, the food delivery service expects EBITDA between EUR 0 and 100 million. That is quite a range, but the length and strength of the remaining pandemic will still influence business development. In 2023, the break-even point should finally be reached at Group level. In the first half of 2021, more than 100% more revenue was generated - but losses also doubled. A significant loss is also expected for the entire past year. The stock market has already seen a significant price correction.

    Nevertheless, the Berlin-based Company continues to grow. For example, Delivery Hero secured shares in the quick commerce provider Gorillas in October and acquired 80% of the shares in the Spanish delivery service Glovo recently. For a long time, Delivery Hero was a stock market darling, reaching a high of just under EUR 142 in April. Over the fall, the share price plummeted by more than 60% because investors feared that the Berlin-based Company would make its acquisitions too expensive. After all, with sales of just under EUR 6 billion, the price-to-sales ratio is still a brave 3.5. The fresh forecasts are now balm for the soul of investors who increasingly doubted whether Delivery Hero would ever make a profit again. For now, we remain on the sidelines and set a tight stop at EUR 77.50 to hedge holdings.

    HelloFresh - Share buyback after 40% share price decline

    Unlike TeamViewer, HelloFresh has gone down 40% since the end of November. Investors are very unsettled about the growth figures. The extent of the pandemic is also important for the business model. At this level, however, it is worth taking a closer look.

    According to the latest statement at an investor event, the cooking box shipper wants to invest significantly more in infrastructure, production and automation. In total, the Management Board intends to spend between EUR 450 million and EUR 550 million annually from 2022 on the expansion of infrastructure and product development. Of this sum, around EUR 200 million is to be used for process automation. In this way, the Executive Board expects to achieve its medium-term target of EUR 10 billion in sales in 2025, compared with just under EUR 5.8 billion in 2021.

    The group also announced an expansion in up to three new regional markets in the coming year. HelloFresh did not yet provide further details. In addition, Group CEO Dominik Richter wants to launch the existing brands in additional countries. While "EveryPlate", for example, is primarily intended to appeal to price-sensitive customers, "GreenChef" focuses on special diets such as keto and paleo or plant-based meals.

    Due to the sharp decline in the share price, HelloFresh intends to buy back its shares in a volume of up to EUR 250 million. At the current stock market price of around EUR 57, the market capitalization is about EUR 10.3 billion. The valuation had recently retreated sharply, but the P/E ratio is still over 40. At least the price-sales ratio now has a 1 in front of the decimal point. After the correction, the share is interesting again - Buy it!

    In the current environment, good advice is expensive. Inflation rates in the US are rising above 7%, and gold and silver are soaring. The development of growth stocks such as Delivery Hero, HelloFresh and TeamViewer depends very much on the interest rate development. Triumph Gold will continue its project development successfully. The situation in the Yukon Territory promises good results in 2022.

    Conflict of interest

    Pursuant to §85 of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG), we point out that Apaton Finance GmbH as well as partners, authors or employees of Apaton Finance GmbH (hereinafter referred to as "Relevant Persons") may hold shares or other financial instruments of the aforementioned companies in the future or may bet on rising or falling prices and thus a conflict of interest may arise in the future. The Relevant Persons reserve the right to buy or sell shares or other financial instruments of the Company at any time (hereinafter each a "Transaction"). Transactions may, under certain circumstances, influence the respective price of the shares or other financial instruments of the Company.

    In addition, Apaton Finance GmbH is active in the context of the preparation and publication of the reporting in paid contractual relationships.

    For this reason, there is a concrete conflict of interest.

    The above information on existing conflicts of interest applies to all types and forms of publication used by Apaton Finance GmbH for publications on companies.

    Risk notice

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    Der Autor

    André Will-Laudien

    Born in Munich, he first studied economics and graduated in business administration at the Ludwig-Maximilians-University in 1995. As he was involved with the stock market at a very early stage, he now has more than 30 years of experience in the capital markets.

    About the author

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